Observations On The Presidential Race

I have been on the road a lot the last month. Among the places I've touched ground are Iowa, Nebraska, Florida, Georgia, Silicon Valley and San Francisco, Minnesota, Chicago, Boston, New York and, of course, the homeground D.C. metro area. In those travels, I've had the chance to talk politics with farmers, union members and neighborhood organizers in Iowa; with bloggers from around the country; with working- class Georgians; with Hispanic organizers in Minnesota and activists; with church leaders and community organizers in Chicago; with high-tech business leaders in Silicon Valley; and with some of the biggest donors in Democratic politics. Some common themes about this year's presidential race are rising to the top in all these conversations:

• This race is still wide, wide-open. Very few people I've talked to in this past month, even the most courted folks like those in Iowa, have decided what they are going to do.
• There is good news and bad news for Obama. One big piece of good news is that he is having no trouble at all continuing on his torrid fundraising pace, and I won't be surprised at all to see him move past Clinton in overall fundraising in this next quarter. The other good news for him is that not just young people, but most people that I talked to that were new to politics, are staying strongly with Obama.
• The bad news is that he is definitely hitting the wall when it comes to activists and those who follow politics closely. His decision to run a relatively policy-free campaign so far has hurt him with those folks most likely to be good precinct captains, or good folks at turning out primary voters.
• I expected Edwards to have an early summer, mid-game surge as activists and bloggers focused on the fact that he is clearly running on the most populist progressive platform. It's happening to some extent, but at a smaller level than I expected, I think because of the small self-inflicted cuts like the haircut thing.
• Clinton still has real problems on her left flank, and in spite of a very impressive Iowa operation, is still having trouble signing up high-quality precinct captains. But her focus-on-women strategy is gaining some traction, and people on the campaign trail are liking her as a campaigner more than they had expected to.
• Richardson seems to be rising to the top of the second tier as people are liking his resume and his relaxed charm as a campaigner. His organization may not have enough quality depth to take advantage of the opportunity, though.

The most important thing I've noticed is that people are paying the closest and most intense attention at this stage of a presidential race than I have ever seen. Folks know this country is hurting, and know how important the 2008 election is going to be.

I would love to know if you are seeing the same things in terms of the presidential campaign, or have a different perspective on it.

Mike Lux is the president of American Family Voices, an issue advocacy group sometimes described as the "free safety" of the progressive movement, and consults for progressive organizations and donors through his consulting firm, Progressive Strategies, L.L.C.