Cross-posted on OpenLeft
Based on all the polling, voter registration, and absentee/early voting data I am seeing, and on conversations with key operatives in the field and other analysts following Senate races, I believe Kentucky and Georgia should be moving up on everyone's radar screens.
Chambliss is outspending Martin by a huge margin, but Martin is hanging in there. The DSCC is now moving money in there, and the African-American turnout could be enormous. This would be the biggest story of the election in terms of the Senate, and the biggest upset of the year in general. And Martin is a terrific guy by all accounts. This should be a huge priority.
Kentucky has been a sleeper race for a while, as McConnell's approval ratings have never been so strong and Lunsford's been hanging close. With a new poll out that has Lunsford only down 46-42, and, as noted by fwiffo in Quick Hits, the one this morning that has the race tied, this is an extremely winnable race- 46% is awful for an incumbent with two weeks to go. And it is critically important. If the Republicans lose a bunch of Senate seats in general, and also lose their very experienced and strong leader in McConnell, their ability to stop the Democrats legislative agenda will be dramatically impaired even if we don't have 60 votes.
With VA, CO, NM, and NH more and more safe, and Kay Hagan now is pretty likely to win because of the money Obama is spending on African-American GOTV, the race to 60 comes down to GA and KY, plus the long standing targets of AK, MN, OR, ME, and MS. I am recommending to everyone I work with a major new push in GA and KY, and a continued effort in MN, OR, and ME (all 3 of which have strong progressive candidates), as I think there's just not enough resources or GOTV operation in MS to put it over the top, and I think AK will be decided by the verdict, not by what any of us do.
I still have fond hopes for Kleeb in NE and Rice in OK, but I think both remain pretty uphill even with the Democrats' tide.