A few months back, before all the sit-ins and other activity, spurred in great part by friends and family back home (I am from Nebraska), I was asking a friend in the administration about the Keystone Pipeline issue. They told me that it really wasn't all that important a policy decision and that it would be made by technical staffers in the State Department with the president playing no role in it. Reading between the lines, I was getting clear signals it was a done deal. And now, for at least another year, it's dead.
On another front, in December, I was inquiring of a very senior Senate staffer about the SOPA/PIPA issue, saying that while I certainly understood the need to do something about intellectual property piracy issues, that I was hearing from some friends in the netroots world that there was some overkill in these bills, and that perhaps senators ought to slow down and listen to the concerns different folks had. I was told that the train had left the station, and it was an unstoppable done deal. And now SOPA is dead as well.
Here's another one: in December, people who care about the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau were in open despair about ever getting the administration to move on recess appointing Rich Cordray to head the bureau. It seemed like the White House and Harry Reid just didn't want to pick the fight and force the issue. But pick the fight they did, and today Rich Cordray truly is acting like the new sheriff in town, taking on exploitive bankers right and left.
As Bob Dylan would put it, the times they are a-changin'. There's a storm outside and it's raging, baby. We really are shaking their windows and rattling their walls. Done deals are not getting done. Dead appointments are acting like Lazarus and rising from the dead. The establishment is getting very, very nervous. And grassroots activists, from the occupiers to the netroots to those chaining themselves to the White House fence or sitting in at the Wisconsin Capitol last year, are shaking and rattling things all over. I noted today where the head of the Motion Picture Association of America, former Sen. Chris Dodd, told the New York Times,
"This is altogether a new effect," ... comparing the online movement to the Arab Spring. He could not remember seeing "an effort that was moving with this degree of support change this dramatically" in the last four decades, he added.
He called for a summit between the Silicon Valley and Hollywood powers that be, but given that it was really the netroots that derailed this bill with no money and no high-paid lobbyists making their case, I'd strongly suggest to Sen. Dodd that they include some representatives of those netroots activists in the room, because the powers that be could come to terms and the netroots still could blow things up.
Progressive activists should feel incredibly good about all they have accomplished in the last year, and should feel good as well that President Obama -- even if it is sometimes more slowly or reluctantly than we would like -- is understanding that on a range of issues, it is politically smart of him to be aligned with these grassroots movement. But it is also no time to pat ourselves on the back: over the next 72 hours, an enormous issue will probably get resolved that will be the biggest single thing that will determine whether the dead housing market, as well as the broader economy, will get a boost that will bring it to life: the bank settlement deal. How this issue gets resolved not only will have a massive impact on the economy, it will go a very long ways in whether the President can credibly run for re-election as the guy who took on Wall Street and held them accountable when the chips were down.
The deal will be announced on Monday. Here's what to look for:
-First, and most importantly, does the administration commit to a comprehensive investigation into the misconduct that led to the collapse of the economy and partner with the likes of aggressive AG's like Eric Schneiderman on such an investigation? Does it have adequate staffing and a clear mandate to fully and broadly investigate the big Wall Street companies that clearly were engaged in all kinds of fraudulent activity in the years that led up to the financial panic of 2008? Will the bankers be brought to justice? If a bigger investigation is launched, given all the stinking dirty laundry the bankers have, we are almost certain to get a much bigger, better deal in the not too distant future, because their lawyers will tell them to cave.
-Second, on the settlement over the robo-signing perjuries, is the release granted the banks the narrowest possible release, or does it let the bankers off the hook for a wide range of fraudulent behavior? A narrow release allows the AGs that want to do more investigation, as well as any task force set up, to do a far more sweeping investigation in the coming months.
-Third, is the principal reduction that is supposed to come from this settlement have specifically enforceable timelines? Do the banks have to come up with the money by a given date, into a specified fund, or does this look like the disastrous HAMP program that was left to the banks' discretion and therefore helped only a tiny fraction of homeowners?
-Fourth, how much money are we talking about anyway? I want, and the country needs, several hundred billion in mortgage writedowns. We won't get that out of this settlement, but we might out of a broader tougher investigation. However even for this first step, the idea of getting just $20 or $25 billion, as has been leaked to various reporters, would be a real disappointment. Knowing that there was almost certainly more to come, I could be happy with more like $50 billion.
I have long been convinced that the health of our economy over the next few years, whether it will be a Japan's lost decade kind of scenario or whether we fix the black hole of the housing market so that the entire economy can start to move again, will rest greatly on how this decision goes down. In part because of its effect on the economy, and in part because Obama's best chance of winning by far is to run against Bain Capital and the predators on Wall Street, I also believe this decision will be the biggest decider in terms of whether Obama wins re-election. So if you care about any of that, or if you just care about holding Wall Street accountable, let the White House know what you think this weekend: sign this petition, call the White House switchboard (202-456-1414) or campaign headquarters this weekend, let them know what you think. People on the inside of these negotiations tell me things are still on the knife's edge, and you can make a difference.
I will close by noting that, as I wrote about in my book The Progressive Revolution, positive change in America happens because of the combination of big progressive movements and Presidents open to that change. The last few victories progressives have won have shown us that formula is starting to work again. Let's hope the next 72 hours show us that the progressive movement can muster its troops to make Wall Street accountability happen, and that the president remains open to change.
Follow Mike Lux on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ProgressiveLux
Dean Baker: The Surefire Way to End Online Piracy: End Copyright
"Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside ragin'.
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'."
- Bob Dylan
Anyway, I do agree that we have to keep the pressure on Obama on resolving the housing crisis. But more importantly, we need to work on getting money out of politics. Because, unless and until we do that, we will still face government that is responsive only to the needs of its funders and not we the people.
It's still not too late for a Third Party Candidate, Barack. Wouldn't it be a shame if that person took away enough votes to put one of those Clowns running against you into The White House?
We wouldn't do that? Oh yeah, try us !
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/
Banking on Becoming President | OpenSecrets
That was before the SCOTUS "Citizens United" decision
The second problem is that ballot access laws have been rigged by the two-party duopoly to make it almost impossible for independent or third-party candidates to get on the ballots:
http://www.thelibertyvoice.com/ralph-nader-ron-paul-agree-ballot-access-laws-are-rigged-against-independent-third-party-candidates
Ralph Nader & Ron Paul Agree: Ballot Access Laws are Rigged Against Independent & Third Party Candidates | The Liberty Voice
http://rangevoting.org/Strangle.html
RangeVoting.org - Stranglehold of 2-party domination
Even the Green Party doesn't have ballot access in all states:
http://www.gp.org/committees/ballot/
Green Party Ballot Access Committee
http://www.freeandequal.org/videos/free-equal-ballot-access-movie/
Free & Equal Ballot Access Movie
There was more turnover in the Soviet Politburo than in the U.S. Congress
There is some progress:
http://www.freeandequal.org/2011/04/ballot-access-reform-bills-in-16-states-nation-wide/
Ballot access reform bills in 16 states nation-wide | Free And Equal
The two-party duopoly has a stranglehold on ballot access laws. Not even the Green Party has ballot access laws in all states.
"Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost." -- John Quincy Adams
Obama won his last election mostly on the massive support from moderates, those same moderates are not going to support him this time. Right now the bankers are friends, Obama has given them pretty much everything they wanted up to now but if he changes tactics and goes after them in a big way, that will be another problem for him for the election.
From the little I have seen a bunch of bankers should go to jail, the number of laws that were broken are difficult to believe, but will Obama choose what is right for America or what is right for himself?
I hope he does the right thing, but I have to predict he will not, at most maybe a couple scapegoats and a small settlement.
If he is to be re-elected this year he recognizes Main Street must be their due as is evidenced of the world wide OWS movement actions. I further feel he understands the OWS folks have only begun and the expectations of many who are now organizing and preparing to mobilize come Spring time.
We are beginning to see a few signs of Obama asserting his policies. For instance, he sandbagged the GOTP on the first debt ceiling fight and boxed Boehner and Cantor into a corner. The outcome there being the trillion dollars being slashed from the Defense Budget the next ten years.
He promised us all that he knew what he was doing, remember him saying that politicians should not even read the Stim bill and pass it as fast as possible? Keep unemployment below 8%?
We should have put Hillary in there, she would have at least had the guts to stand by what she did instead of being an excuse machine, that woman has integrity if nothing else.
Being an astute politician, Mr. Obama recognizes the need for the people that is his core supporters to re-elect him demanding he stand up to the 1% on main street's behalf.
KUDO's to Senators Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley of Oregon for helping to bring this issue to a front burnner where we could all smell it.
http://www.citizen.org/documents/FinanceReregulationFactSheetFINAL.pdf
To Rescue Main Street, We Need to Curb the WTO
"...Starting in the late 1970s, the U.S. government and corporations pushed to redefine “finance” from a service that supports the real economy to a tradable commodity whose flow across borders should be uninhibited. Starting in the late 1980s, they successfully pushed for financial services to be included in “trade” negotiations, including those establishing the World Trade Organization (WTO). “The sector was truly unique in that respect, and there is little doubt within the trade policy community that financial sector support in the European Union and the United States was a determining force in concluding the FSA [WTO Financial Services Agreement]” notes a study posted on the WTO’s own website “Financial Services and the WTO: What Next?”
The WTO rules require deregulation – and lock-in – of financial services that countries “liberalize” under these terms.
[snip]
For instance, the Glass-Steagall Act created a firewall between commercial and investment banks to prevent the former from speculating with consumers’ savings. But the U.S.’ 1997 FSA commitments noted an intent to change Glass-Steagall to conform with WTO rules. The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which did so, passed in 1999 – the year the FSA went into effect...."
One solution: leave the WTO
Take the money we save and, like Solon did way back in Classical times, apply it to more loan forgiveness -- for those losing their homes and those bankrupted by student loan debt. We can do this in a fair way. For homeowners, give them a reasonable and affordable interest rate on their current mortgage. For graduated and future students, make compounding interest rates illegal.