The Only Good News About Senate Finance Bill? It Won't Pass

I have written several times of the media's fixation with the bill that comes out of the Senate Finance Committee on health care. It's finally starting to move now, creaking its way up the track like a half-dead carcass. Traditional media will act like whatever is in the Senate Finance bill will be the bill, that the deal is done. Not even close, folks.

Here's why the Senate Finance markup that will come out next week is nowhere close to what will be in the final legislation:

1. Finance chair Max Baucus has already messed up by not consulting with a half-dozen of the more progressive members of the committee. I am hearing numerous reports, some of which have surfaced publicly, that some of them are rebelling at the awful piece of mangled legislation being thrust in front of them. Given that Snowe is the only Republican that there is even a ghost of a chance of voting for the bill, Baucus has to get all or at least most of the Democrats on board, and I believe if the committee progressives work together, they can force some changes for the better.

2. The bill that makes it out of Finance will be so convoluted, contradictory, distorted, held-together-with-duct-tape because of all the compromises Baucus is making that Democrats will have to remake it in later stages even if they don't want to- and a great many of them want to.

3. Harry Reid still needs to marry the Finance bill and the HELP committee bill. Tom Harkin, who took over the chairmanship of the HELP Committee after Ted Kennedy passed away, is from what I hear bound and determined to make a major push to have the language of the HELP bill be a major part of the package that goes to the floor, including on the big issues like the public option and affordability for the middle class. He is being supported not only by the Democratic members of his committee but by outside progressive forces.

4. The floor fight will be wild and wooly, but I suspect that progressive forces may have an advantage in adding positive amendments to the mix in the light of day in a floor fight. The Republicans will offer all kinds of goofy amendments designed to mess up the bill, but they have two problems: they only have 40 votes, and the public polling on the GOP's actual health care proposals are very bad. Given that, Republican efforts to worsen the bill have little chance to succeed. Progressives, on the other hand, want to improve the bill by doing things that are actually popular: the public option (consistently polls in the 60s and 70s); taxing the wealthy instead of middle class workers with good insurance plans; making health insurance more affordable to the middle class. All of these are going to be pretty hard to vote against on the Senate floor.

5. Finally, to return to a theme I have been rather repetitive about in recent months, it is abundantly clear that House progressives, if they stay strong and stay together, have the negotiating power to block a bad bill. If they don't wilt, if they don't let themselves get picked off one by one, they can negotiate for a good health care bill, one that has a public option, one that is affordable for the middle class, one that forces insurers and providers to do real cost containment.

The traditional media will fall all over themselves to pronounce whatever Senate Finance does to be chiseled in stone. But progressives, if they work together and negotiate tough, can write a bill that will work, a bill on comprehensive health reform that we can all look back on as one of the greatest accomplishments of the era.

Comments

[Malagodi]

Interesting.

Robert Reich says Snowe should vote against it, hoping it will completely crash.

Krugman says it's not as bad as it could have been, maybe it can be fixed with amendments.

Talk about a clusterfuck.

http://healthcare09.net/2009/09/18/reich-vs-krugman-in-snowe-tug-of-war/

[Factonfact]

We'll see.

[LemonMeringue]

The bill is so bad there is nothing even to build on.

[LemonMeringue]

I'm almost glad it is this horrible. If it were only a little horrible we would get a rotten bill passed.

This way there is no choice but to deep-six it and look at HR 676

[Ben6768]

Thanks Mike, in a sea of confusion, you are the reference. Hopefully in the near future we will say " it happened like Mike predicted"
Cheers

[LeoTheDog]

Completely agree. Last week, there was a post on this site that bemoaned the Senate Finance Committee bill, and went to great lengths to create hysteria (suggesting that no bill would be preferable than the Finance bill). I was criticized mightily for calling that post what it was: irresponsible and hysterical. Among other things, I pointed out that the Finance bill was never going to be THE bill, that it would be aggressively negotiated and that there were four other (superior, in my view) bills that would play a role in the final outcome.

So, I am quite happy to see that all the gnashing of the teeth from last week has been somewhat replaced by a rational (and realistic) view of what the Finance bill is. It is one piece of the overall puzzle, and it is merely an attempt to get the legislative process back on track. You can't reconcile bills until all the alternatives are finalized. Now, finally, we can move this process forward and let the more progressive Democratic voices be heard as we push forward to a vote. Ugly as it may be, this is how the process works....

[DuPageDem]

Good summary of how this works -- thanks.

"House progressives, if they stay strong and stay together, have the negotiating power to block a bad bill."

From your keyboard to their eyeballs. We all have to keep on them so they don't cave.

[STILJON]

Republicans should be the ones pounded with questions on where they are compromising when it comes to healthcare reform because it certainly seems clear after the Baucus bill gave them everything and they still won't sign on that they aren't interested in working for the American people to actually achieve results. The Baucus bill has no public option, increased language that further prevents illegal immigrant access, increased language that clarifies how public funds will not be used to support abortion, reduced cost and clear language on how it will be paid for making it deficit neutral. If they're not willing to sign on to this it's time to make it evidently clear through aggressive questioning that they are not interested in effective healthcare reform that will help Americans and are instead doing everything they can to stop reform. If Republicans think they will politically gain from trying to stop improvements to our failing healthcare system so be it. Even if they succeed at weakening what could've been a much stronger bill for healthcare reform their clearly belligerent obstruction will ensure they get absolutely no credit for any of the significant reforms that are achieved once a healthcare reform bill is signed. Where ever the bill happens to fall short they deserve all the blame for stripping it of the reforms that Democrats and the majority of Americans understand could make the greatest difference. So hopefully in the very near future this awareness will lead us to even further progressive reforms.

[cdub1991]

Finally--someone talking sense on this site. Of course this is what will happen. the only thing Baucus accomplished today was getting the legislative process back in motion instead of stalled in a fruitless, never ending pis-sing match with folks who were never going to sign on in the first place. I guess we can thank him for that, but not much else.

[pragmaticdallasite]

Great article

[johnnyybgood]

WOW..........with all the bad news this summer this is somewhat of a proverbial " light at the end of the tunnel". We all should copy and paste this article and send it to our Dems in Congress.

But then again, as someone said, 'trying to get Dems to stick together is like herding cats'. But I hope we get the public option as it is the only thing they can do that will lower our skyrocketing premiums.

[rad21]

The bill reflects, two Americas that distrust each other. Many probably have that sentiment. I have a different perspective, especially on healthcare.

Data shows high-cost healthcare in big-city states east of the Mississippi. These states are Liberal, Democratic and Blue. They seek reform, especially the “Public Option system” to bring down cost and eliminate the scourge of "insurance denial".

Per-capita low-cost consumers of care are located in the South, Mid-west and rural regions. They are Conservative, Republican and Blue. They don't see the need to over-haul the low premium system. Is it their politics that results in low premiums?

Low-cost states have lower incidence of chronic illnesses like emphysema; greater social support network; and lower cost of end-of-life care. Only 15% in the northeast die at home; while a much higher % in rural and traditional societies. These factors have major effect on costs. Medicare expenditure is 70% on management of chronic illnesses and 30% on end-of-life care.

It isn’t distrust that exists between the two Americas; it is gross confusion. Conservatives should credit Liberals for coming to grips to control costs; and discipline those who are not savvy consumers of healthcare. Ideally, both sides should have a rational dialog and learn from each other. Instead, we succumb to catch-phrases like "Death Panels" and "Government takeover"; allowing ourselves to be exploited by political parties and special-interest groups.

[cybexg]

"Per-capita low-cost consumers of care are located in the South, Mid-west and rural regions. They are Conservative, Republican and Blue. They don't see the need to over-haul the low premium system. Is it their politics that results in low premiums?"

No, it is a distortion of how the statistics are calculated. The South and much of the rural midwest recieve substantial government assistance for health care. As such, the per-capita amount as reported by the states is distorted into being lower than it actuall is. Additionally, the South has sufficent poverty to locally suppress the cost of health care all by itself. Finally, the education level in the South is substantially lower, causing many to ignore much health care.

[23000Days]

I'm with you, Mike. With 4 other bills out there, there's no reason to assume the finance bill is the one with the power. Much more haggling and ammending is in store.

[vlm1948]

I so hope you are right. It sounds as if the Baucus bill is a give away to the insurance companies and the last thing we need is more of the.