For some perspective on the wisdom of the Democrats who are opposing health care reform, let's go the elections last Tuesday. New polling analysis from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Women's Voices Women's Vote is pretty powerful, and I recommend it to all the Democrats who voted no on the health care bill and every single one of their political consultants: the bottom line, friends, is that everything you do to depress Democratic voter turnout in your district is another nail in your coffin.
Greenberg has put together an overlapping collection of demographic groups that he calls the Rising American Electorate: unmarried women, 18-29-year-olds, African-Americans, Latinos, and other people of color. When you add them all together (taking away overlaps), they are currently 52.1% of the voting age population in this country. These demographic groups all share certain characteristics:
So let's go back to the VA and NJ numbers. In VA in 2008, the percentage of voters in that Rising American Electorate group was 45%. In the 2009 VA electorate, the RAE % dropped to 36%. In NJ in 2008, the % of the electorate that was in the RAE category was 49%, whereas in 2009 it was only 39%. These RAE voters didn't come out to vote because they were discouraged that Democrats that they had invested their faith in weren't delivering tangible benefits for their lives.
The Democrats in marginal districts who are patting themselves on the back for taking the "safe" vote by voting no on health care reform are fooling themselves, and in a great many cases dooming themselves in the next election. If the part of the electorate that strongly favors you drops by 10% (or more) in the next election, do you really think you can win a competitive race? And does not helping your party and your President deliver health reform help you or hurt you in turning out the Democratic vote? I'll let the geniuses advising these members of Congress to vote no try to explain that one.
The Democrats who oppose health care reform are also hurting themselves in a lot of different ways besides depressing turnout:
I was in the Clinton White House in 1994 after we lost on health care, and these same demographic groups- young people, Latinos, unmarried women -- turned their back on us. I remember seeing the focus groups, and having the reports back from the doorknockers: these hard-pressed voters who had been so excited about Clinton in 1992 felt like he and the Democrats in Congress had let them down, and they had no enthusiasm for coming out to vote.
I look at Democrats like Altmire and Adler in the House (whose Democrats were won by Obama because of big turnouts by all those RAE voters), or Blanche Lincoln in the Senate who is up for election next year, and really wonder about their political judgment. If Lincoln opposes health care reform, she dramatically increases the odds that someone like Lt. Gov. Bill Halter will challenge her in a primary from the left (and that if he does, he'll get a lot of financial support from people all over the country), which would be a bruising fight costing a lot of money, and she virtually guarantees that less black folks, young people, unmarried women -- i.e. the Democrats in Arkansas -- turn out to vote in the general. I mean, even Walmart is supporting health care reform: how much more political cover do you need, Senator? The political thinking here is stunningly bad.
As a loyal Democrat, I hope these Democrats opposing health care reform come to their sense -- not just for reform's sake, but for their own.
Daniel Cubias: The Health Care Bill and Latinos
Illegal immigrants are not covered under any public option. Nor would they be provided with vouchers to help them pay for insurance. The Senate version of the bill even prevents them from buying insurance on public exchanges.
Frank Sharry: Latinos Poised to Shake Up 2010 Census, Politicians Beware
The 2010 Census will have a profound effect on the U.S. political landscape. An astonishing number of states will owe new Congressional seats, in large part, to their new Latino constituents.
It really is time to enter the fray. Keep your reps informed of your values and of the reason you voted for that person to represent you! Be heard.
I am reminded of the pejorative I hear from my uber-conservative father: Dimmocrats. Ha ha so funny. Anyway, that term has popped up in my head lately when I see all these supposed elected Democrats outright ignoring and going against the wants of the people that got them there. WE WILL NOT VOTE FOR YOU IF YOU BETRAY US!!! I don't know how much clearer this can be.
They just vote no on everything and have lied to their constituents claiming any credit for themselves when they had nothing to contribute but a no vote.
They have a voting record and should be called out in every election across the US.
Nearly 50% of Republicans are in office even with a Dem majority and less than 30% of Republicans claim their own party.
Dems will lose if they don't start calling them out on their voting record now.
I respect Charlie Crist but he took stimulus money and just recently stated he had nothing to do with it and some other spin just because he is running for office.
Dems need to stop the complacent cycle now they have some clout and tell the truth speak out about the disservice the Republicans have done to their constituents.
Republicans haven't worked for the people as much as they have worked to say no.
Actually, your article just confirms what I have suspected for quite a while - the most important thing to either party is getting money and winning elections and staying in power.
The good of the citizens is no longer a priority or even on a short list.
This last election I voted for what I considered the lesser evil, since I assumed none of the campaign rhetoric was anything but, well, empty rhetoric.
So far, I am correct.
Next election, the premise is that hey, we are not as bad as the other guy won't wash - if I cannot tell the difference between the players' actual deeds, I will not vote for either of them.
That is not throwing away my vote, that is voting my conscience.
The system we have now is failed, is it all about the money.
Forcing individuals and employers to purchase questionable insurance to pay for expensive services in a system that has failed so many is the reason that this 2000 page mess is worse than no reform.
Affordable health care can only be achieved by having cost controls on both the way funding to pay for services is raised and administered and the way delivery systems, hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies providing care and medications, are operated.
Health care reform could be the greatest economic stimulus ever but we must throw out the 2000 page reform mess and start over.
A pure public option, giving free care to everyone choosing public care, and eliminating costs for employers who choose the public option for their employees, which uses government sales tax funding, replacing insurance, along with distributing all government funded care only through government owned and operated hospitals, staffed by government employed doctors and health care providers, using proven VA systems, is the most cost effective and morally correct way for fixing half of the health care problem.
The second half of the solution is to have a pure private option, with private insurance and only private funding, paying for care and medications dispenssed by private providers, which would not be subjected to any government mandates.
Healthy people and a healthy economy, saving taxpayers hundreds of billions annually, could be achieved if the President’s reform were more prudently crafted, using proven systems.
Are the bright minds at the Ivy Leagues ready? Start by reducing the high cost in Northeast states; where healthcare costs are twice that in the Mid-West. Let's stop blaming the politicians; and hold healthcare insurers and providers accountable.
The learning lesson is: Address future healthcare issues following the Base-Closure model. As in base-closures, healthcare priorities, including reimbursement, will need revamping with changing technologies and evolving challenges. Both have many vested corporate entities, self-appointed consultants, and opinionated media groups.
The Base-Closure Commission is a panel of experts (not politicians) who present a well-defined proposal. President and Congress accept or reject the plan in an up-or-down vote; without modifications. With this model in healthcare, there will be less controversy, politics and money changing hands. The country benefits from the expertise of the people who know and work in the field; rather than know-it-all politicians and pundits; and will save itself from all the bitterness and political wrangling.
There is no route to victory through this bill for the Democrats or America. Incredibly the nation that does health care worse than any other developed nation has managed to come up with a bill to make things worse.
"They damage the brand of the Democratic Party as an effective party that can get things done"
"They lessen their ability to raise money from all those Democratic activists and interest groups who care about health care"
"As a loyal Democrat, I hope these Democrats opposing health care reform come to their senses - not just for reform's sake, but for their own."
These statements amount to one thing only: Party over principle. You want them to pass a bill regardless of how dreadful it is. You want the Dems to be able to say "Mission Accomplished" even though it hasn’t been. This is not change.
The House bill is a jackpot for insurance companies. It’ll do nothing to hold down costs, much less rates. Everyone will be forced to buy it and the insurance companies couldn’t get any luckier. It only gets worse from here. For-profit healthcare is the problem. There is no for-profit solution.
What does it even mean to be a Democrat? I really don’t know. It’s difficult to define a party that includes Russ Feingold, Dennis Kucinich, and Arlen Specter (R). After all, it’s NOT the GOP stopping this heathcare "reform". It’s Dems!