The Measure of Obama's Presidency

One of my most dominant memories of my years in the Clinton White House were the budget discussions at the very beginning of Clinton's first term in early 1993. It was a heady time for us Clintonites, winning the presidency for the first time since 1976, having control by big margins of both Houses of Congress. We had won with a populist platform of "Putting People First" -- making long term investments in programs to help the middle class and get poor people good jobs, and taking on powerful special interests so that we could do things like achieving universal health care. When we started talking about the budget, though, Bob Rubin argued that only an austere budget focused on reassuring bond holders that we were cutting the deficit would produce a stronger economy. He argued vehemently that we would have to put off all those promised people -- first investments, and that we must not put health care reform spending in the budget because it would undermine those bond holders' confidence. When President Clinton went with Rubin, and put off making those investments, and put off health care spending, he lost all of these promised policy goals for the duration of his presidency.

This was a pattern that would be repeated throughout the Clinton years. When labor and environmentalists pushed for more safeguards in trade deals, Clinton was convinced that the business community wouldn't stand for it, and he caved. When the message that could have won the health care fight was a populist anti-insurance company message, pro-business advisers talked the Clintons out of using it. When Brooksley Born wanted to regulate derivatives, she was stopped by the economic conservatives in the administration. We made little progress on doing anything about climate change because we decided we couldn't beat the energy companies.

My point here is not that Bill Clinton was a bad guy or a bad president. He got some good things done, including Family and Medical Leave, S-CHIP, an increase in the minimum wage, and progressive tax changes, among others. He presided over 8 years of solid economic growth and peace. But he did not deliver the big lasting progressive changes he promised because he was largely unwilling to stand up to the big special interests in corporate America.

In a calmer era, when the economy was bubbling along reasonably well, Clinton could get along politically just fine by playing that kind of small ball, even though it was disappointing to progressives. But in the historical moment we are in today, I believe Barack Obama's presidency will only be a success if he swings for the fences, boldly takes on those powerful special interests, and beats them. Our problems are too big to be solved by small ball, and Obama's campaign and early days as president have built expectations too high, for him to be a success by settling for little things.

Fortunately, the president seems to get this. It is Obama that has called clearly for big, bold change. It is Obama who has proposed a transformative budget. It is Obama who has taken on the insurance industry directly with his health care proposal that includes a public option, and is taking on the energy industry by attacking the climate change problem on several different fronts simultaneously.

There are two questions now in front of us that will determine Obama's ultimate success:

1. Will the Democrats in the House and Senate that are closely allied with big corporate interests back their corporate friends or Obama? There are a lot of Democrats who have historic ties to the insurance, energy, and financial interests, and who have (not to jump to conclusions or anything) taken a lot of their money. A lot of those Democrats are on the relevant committees working on the big bills affecting those industries, and we just saw an example of how those industry ties can twist a piece of good legislation into something far worse when you compare what Chairman Waxman wanted to do with the tortured thing that came limping out of his committee on climate change. We are about to see this process at work in Senate Finance on the health care bill. With Obama, the House leadership, and most Democrats in Congress on record in support of a public option, it is pretty strange that this conservative committee that has so many members so close to the insurance industry is having such an outsize role the debate. No matter what comes out of that committee, though, Democrats need to be very clear that they need to deliver a strong bill, one that takes on the insurance companies, and get it passed this year.

It's the same deal with the final climate change bill, and it's the same deal with financial regulatory reform later this year. Democrats will have to take on big oil and Wall Street to actually begin to solve these problems.

2. Will the White House itself see the fight against special interests through? President Obama cannot solve this country's short and long term economic crisis without taking on beating big insurance, energy, and financial interests, and I believe he knows that. But every politician has a cautious streak, and does not want to go down to defeat on big fights -- for good reason, because the iron law of politics is that winning makes you stronger and losing makes you weaker. The temptation will be to cut the comfortable deals that making winning legislative fights easier to do, the deals that avoid big confrontations with powerful special interests. That was the path Clinton ultimately chose on one issue after another, and the path that many, many people will urge Obama to take.

The problems we face, though -- with our economy and our broken financial system, with a health care system out of control, with climate change -- they will just not get solved unless we confront the problem industries directly and make them change their destructive behavior. Obama has courageously started down this road on health care and energy. Now he needs to demand that Congress follows through and does the right thing, and he needs to make the same push on financial issues.

Comments

[shawn25]

I'm getting very sick of these spineless democrats that are supposed to represent the "change" that people voted for but will not deliver. Foremost, I am beginning to think Obama is nothing but a smooth talking bag of hot air. Healthcare is a HUGE issue that he and the rest of his coward democrats should not be relenting on.

This is especially hard to understand when there is such a huge public support for the public option. Can democrats not ram something through with a 51 vote in the senate ? Why then are they even thinking about bipartisanship at a time like this ? This is why I hate the democrats, and as much as I hate the Republicans, I at least respect them, because they are willing to push their agenda's thru, come hell or high water. They dont prance and pussyfoot around with their agenda's unlike the democrats. The two-party system is a sham and this is a perfect case in point of why.

Why are they upset that it will cost 1 Trillion ? Raise taxes on people, I'm sure everyone is willing to pay a tax to have GUARANTEED access to healthcare at all times.

Yet, Obama as the leader of the cowards is already non-committal about a public option and that opens up the door for the rest to follow suit. If this does not happen it will be a big disappointment, and Obama will be another lying politician in my book.

[DavidDial]

I really hope Bill Maher and the rest of the far left loons will read this and give some thought to how difficult it will be for President Obama to overcome the forces aligned against the kind of change they voted for. He would be more likely to succeed if they would stop carping and start helping. He has enough on his plate without having to guard both flanks.

[Coinyer101]

You choose an interesting way to ask for Bill Maher and the rest of "the far left loons" to start helping. I thought voicing our own opinions was the best way to help. Maybe if folks like you showed a little more respect for those with different opinions, than to call them "loons" and "far left" [like that is some kind of a put-down], you would get more support.

[Merlin7]

Aw, come on. I've been watching these faux-liberal Democrats ever since JFK was romping in the White House pool with Fiddle and Faddle. Their inspirational campaign promises are just part of the elaborate kabuki theater of American politics. It has become all too clear that the Democratic and Republican duality is meaningless. A handful of billionaires and special-interest organizations run both parties, and use them like circus performers to con Americans into thinking we live in a genuine democracy, when in fact we live in a corporate-run empire. Endlessly debating what these clowns will or will not do is meaningless and merely adds to the illusion.

[jcwtts1]

The point of the blog, and the point of Obama's campaign is that, for the first time since Kennedy, the special interests don't wield white house power. They can't even get in the room with the man, so what we are left with is a chance, not a sure thing, but a chance to jam our proposals through. If you want this stuff, then we have to control the debate with money. What we have to do is replace the big corp spending with small consistent donations. If we are the money men then we too can get what we want. What we must do is pick out the conservative dems who are doing this not because their states are red but because they are cowards or open for business. We need to push those hacks, and push them with money to other candidates. We can freeze them out but we can also raise the cash fast. Imagine if in Iowa, a dem challenger got 2 or three million dollars of donations every time Graassly tried to stop this. Or if in Montana, a local dem DA got 2 hundred thousand dollars, or if New Orleans got an add blitz about Mary Landreu killing the Presidents agenda. We need money. We won because we had the better candidate and because he raised, through small donations, a billion dollars. We have to pony up and we need a group of people running this fund that we can actually trust.

[imagine0594]

For me to be absolutely sure that special interests don't wield white house power, Kucinich would have to president. With Obama, I want to believe it, but I'm not there yet. Just a reminder: 50 million people do not have health insurance, but what's worse is millions more think they have insurance, and when they go to use it, find out it's worthless. Man, I wish people would wake up and support single payer, but if you can't do that, at least insist on a non-profit plan.

[Soulsurfer]

Sorry, its already apparent that the K Street Boyz are still in control. Every single bit of progressive policy has been watered down to worthless gruel. They don't even let progressives in on policy making discussions. Biden and Emmanuel are 2 of the Dems tied to big business interests, as are Pelosi and Reid.

[DavidDial]

I think you and your fellow conspiracy theorists say the things you say to excuse the fact that you are doing nothing productive.

[texanna]

Candidate Obama didn't set our expectations for timidity. No, he set our expectations for audacity and hope and break-with-the-past change. So, where are all those things? In the time it takes to poach an egg, seemingly, passionate candidate Obama morphed into right of center Pres Obama. I believe that was exactly the concern of many progressives during the campaign who were trying to wade through the soaring rhetoric to get to the nuts and bolts and for which they were excoriated as Obama haters by his minions in the blogosphere. What I'd really like to see are all the people that would stand in line overnight in order to attend a campaign event to muster that energy again and let their guy know that he's not doing most of what he said he'd do.

[Koreanovice]

I think he also said that bc of the special interest and money involved that you need to make him do what he promised! That means through your congressman!

[jcwtts1]

All this trash about our guy not doing what he said. he gave is a stim to save the US economy and the global one. He gave us equal pay legislation, he is getting us out of Iraq, he is fight Afgan smart, he is pushing health care with a public option, he is cutting bad wasteful spending, he gave us a budget that moves in the right direction on energy, education and health care for the next 10 years. he gave us a supreme we can be proud of, and, he has restored our standing in the world. Further his diplomacy is brilliant, and vital to stabilizing a crazy global situation. He is doing a wonderful job and if weak kneed cowards like your guys would get out of his way, we would be even further along.

J

[dsws]

Energy should be priority #1. Civilization isn't going to end because of an inadequate response to the challenges posed by Peak Medical Insurance. Russia isn't a resurgent medico-state that makes strategic use of the threat of shutting off its sleeping-gas pipelines and leaving Europe without anesthesia. OPEC doesn't stand for Organization of Pharmaceut­ical-Expor­ting Countries.

Reigning in the growth of health insurance costs is a necessity, recognized by a wide swath of the business community. The political will is there to make something happen. Obama should shape it and ease its passage as best he can without spending much political capital. He's right to tackle it next, taking the legislative fights in order of increasing difficulty: stimulus and the stuff in his first budget, now health care, then energy, and finally financial reform.

[ApolloSpeaks]

THE MEASURE

of Obama's presidency: a ruler of 12 inches is 7 too long.

[bestealth]

Obama is doing nothing for you. Your reps are doing nothing for you. Grow up and do the only thing that will save this "country" .
Cancel your health care insurance on Monday.
Refuse to buy anything from a corporation that is not essential for you.
( Like I own a lawn care company so I'm buying gas) but I'm not buying fast food, bottled water, supporting right wing corps like Outback, etc,
Stop banking.

If everyone making posts on this site, or elsewhere, withdrew their money from banks and canceled their insurance tomorrow, we would have universal health care by Friday.
And if they held out for a day or two, The entire Bush administration would not the the light of day the rest of their lives.
YOUR HEALTH CARE COMPANY WILL BEG YOU TO COME BACK
As will your bank, you'll be more than fine.
I have outlined their nightmare.

[Ben6768]

Well said, bestealth !
We have the power to change the course of events. Take your account out of Citycorp, Bank of America and the other crooks, and put your money in a local bank or credit union.
This is an order to all Americans that disagree with the situation ! do it now !

[alabaman]

Let;s go even further back than Clinton. Remember when Prez Carter tried to create a National Consumer Protection agency and when he tried to pass legislation requiring used car dealers to inspect their vehicles and warranty them? Both of these pro-consumer proposals went nowhere, and Dems had huge majorities in Congress. It was the Dems who actually killed those bills in committee.

We have to go back to the 1960s to find a Dem prez who took on the special interests and largely won. Although the Vietnam War doomed his presidency, the Great Society legislation Prez Johnson pushed foward such as Medicare lives on today.

[1088]

If he could do it all with a stroke of the pen, he would be a great President. However, I wish it was that simple, for he needs those knuckle heads first to pass his proposals where the problems lies.

[jmpurser]

As long as he refuses to lead the "Knuckleheads" can do what they want.

[jcwtts1]

He is leading. The last 8 years have confused you on what leadership is. It isn't shouting and demanding with no juice to back it up. It is quiet diplomatic deal making and getting your own people to fall into line. He is winning on every issue. Give him time and he will win health care too. But he needs our help. Money and calls and action. If you want to sit in the cheap seats and cry without doing anything, well, you get what you get.

J

[jmpurser]

Exactly what "big bold initiative" would you be talking about? The bold "I'm gonna close Guantanamo but don't know where the people will go" initiative? The bold "no justice, no peace" initiative? The "the problem with health care is the government isn't forcing people to buy insurance" initiative? The "Separate but equal" initiative?

Exactly which one were you talking about?

[Koreanovice]

Go get some air.

[jcwtts1]

Health care, mandate is a compromise not his plan, public option is his plan, get it straight. Trying and releasing people from Gitmo is his plan as he closes it. Our first trial was last week. Just 7 years after it opened. Don't know what the gibberish you are spouting means for the rest.

J

[1dogs2]

Every time President Obama takes on the big corporations and their multi-million dollar campaigns against one of his major initiatives, he will spend some of his political capital. So far, he has husbanded that capital carefully (to the outrage of many progressives) -- more carefully than Clinton did. That he has prioritized those initiatives and spent as little political capital as possible on the way to various showdowns is a good sign. Those on the left who think he's going to fold on a genuine and effective public health care option don't know him very well and/or are very poor judges of character, while those who are already pronouncing him a failure and a fraud and calling for his impeachment (!!!) are delusional.

[jmpurser]

Congratulation on taking the exact opposite meaning from the post than the author intended.

[jcwtts1]

Clinton came to power damaged. His personal behavior ate through his cap before he even got into office. Obama has the juice to fight, he needs help to do it. America isn't a dictatorship. We have to push the conservative dems.

J

[getsmart85]

#3 Will Obama be content with being the first black president or strive to be a great president? As time marches on, he seems to be missing opportunities. He has backed off on reining in Wall Street greed and congressional spending. His heart is in the right place, but he is a very, very cautious and cerebral man. Polar opposite of Bush. Obama and Bush do seem to have one thing in common. They are both loyal to their staff. This got Bush into deeper trouble and will probably get Obama into trouble too.

[jcwtts1]

I just don't get it. You say he has backed off on reigning in greed on wall street. He has a plan to announce this week. You don't even know what it says. more, the country was in free fall when he took over. He had to save us before he could lecture wall street. He had to save your pension and your parents before he could crush banks for being criminally negligent or corrupt. You act as though his term in office ends today. He is just getting started.

[SeekWisdom]

Excellent post. The big problems, however, won't get resolved without publicly funded elections. Obama, Clinton, or any other President can only self-destruct by getting in the face of the special interests who own Congress. Congress is the real culprit and it's up to us to push clean elections to the fore and cut off their pandering to corporate dictates. Don't expect them to "bite the hand that feeds them."

I think Obama has to be a master at diplomacy if he hopes to generate significant support in Congress and still take the tough stances the public wants. Just this week, Change Congress exposed two representatives who'd accepted millions from the health & insurance industry and came out opposing Obama's public option - Nelson (D-NE) and Landrieu (D-LA).

As long as we continue to have representatives like these. I don't think we can do a fair evaluation of Obama ... or Clinton ... or ...

Push for passage of the Fair Elections Now bill. It's our best hope for cleaning up this corrupt mess in Congress.

[elfNW]

I believe you have really nailed it. That is everything that was wrong with the Clinton presidency, and everything that could go wrong with the Obama presidency. Unfortunately so far things are not looking very good so far on a multitude of issues; the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, changes with regard to Gitmo and the war on terror, the people he put in charge of the financial mess and their response to it, and now, it is starting to seem, health care reform. I fear Obama is too willing to succumb to the temptation to accept legislation that provides cover for him to claim results without really producing meaningful results.

Considering his life biography I wish in fact that he had spent some significant time in a for profit business environment, just to have given him true knowledge of that perspective. I believe that he genuinely wants what`s best for all Americans, but his background, in first community organizing, and then as a politician, taught him lessons in going for the consensus and doing what seems possible to improve the lives of all Americans. I sometimes think he projects these qualities onto these business executives when in fact they don’t give a f___ about the American people; all they care about is profit and how that increases their compensation.

[mesmerised]

This whole article is code for rooting for the government to take over and personally run individual's lives. Throw in specious claims to scare people - climate change? Oy - and the true Big Brother Orwell wrote about is on the march.

Just what we needed - a Marxist president with guts.