Kent Conrad has repeatedly said there are not enough votes in the Senate for a public option, and now says he won't vote for one. HHS Secretary Sebelius says the public insurance option is not essential. These statements add to a steadily growing conventional wisdom that the public option is now dead.
Not so fast. This fight hasn't even come close to being played out yet.
Conrad is accurate that there are not currently 60 votes in the Senate for a public option. But what conventional wisdom ignores is that there are 64 House members who are unequivocally on record as saying they will not vote for a health reform bill that has no public option, way more than enough to take that possibility off the table. So there are two possibilities right now:
The conventional wisdom says that while it is entirely possible that the first scenario happens, that if the second scenario happens it will be because House progressives fold. There seem to be no other possibilities to all the expert prognosticators.
Now, I will admit that progressives have been known to fold before, as Chris Bowers wrote today. But let me suggest that there are other possibilities here, scenarios that are actually within the realm of the possible. If progressives in the House hold their ground, if they hang tough on the public option, what happens next will go something like this:
1. The House will find the votes to pass a comprehensive bill with a public option soon after they get back from August recess. That will be reasonably easy, because Pelosi will be able to peel off a reasonable number of Blue Dogs, many of whom have said they would support a public option, to vote for the bill.
2. The Senate will find the votes to pass a convoluted, tortured, unworkable bill, not only with no public option but so messed up and compromised to be unworkable anyway. This is less certain than number one, but Democrats will probably find a way to pass something.
3. The conference committee will sit for several weeks as Senators like Conrad say we will never pass a public option, House progressives says we will never pass something without a public option, and the White House, Pelosi, Reid, and conference committee members work out details to try to get something passed.
At that point, there are a few possibilities. One is that Democratic leaders just give up and declare health care reform dead. That seems unlikely to me, given the high stakes. Another possibility is that House progressives just fold up. That is more likely given recent history, but given their clear promises and the strong pressure on them not to, they might just hold this time. So let's assume for the moment that they do hold strong. Here are a couple of possibilities for getting a bill passed:
A. The first is that conservative Senators are given a fig leaf compromise on the public option, so that they can say to people they forced a compromise, and then are brought over with all kinds of other incentives that make them more comfortable with the bigger bill.
B. The second is that the conference committee simply breaks the bill in half, one half being the less controversial part that everyone agrees upon, the other being the public option and the financing, both of which can go through the reconciliation process. Then Obama and Reid muscle the 50 votes they need for support.
None of this is easy, and none of it is pretty, but having been through a ton of these kinds of issue fights, both from inside the Clinton White House and from the outside, I can tell you that all of this is doable. These kinds of rhetorical logjams happen all the time, where it looks like the House and the Senate are both unalterably dug in, and then magically deals get done. On important bills, effective Presidents and Congressional leaders find some tough-to-thread-the-needle sweet spot, or they use some uncomfortable or inelegant legislative tool, and things that matter can get done. The media and establishment conventional wisdom, which always tends toward the dire and toward the conservative scenarios, is sometimes proven wrong. So ye of little faith, do not give up hope. The worst thing sometimes happens, but not always. Politicians sometimes sell people out, but not always. Keep fighting for the public option.
If you're looking for inspiration, take a page out of Gov. Dean's book. I co-moderated this part wonky, part political, part fiery panel (along with the wonderful Texas AFT union organizer Tanya Tarr) with Gov. Dean, and I'm sharing it with you because like me, he still believes hope for a public option is still alive and worth fighting for.
https://www.madashelldoctorstour.com/Mad_as_Hell_Video.html
These Oregon physicians are in the process of organizing a caravan designed to inform the public about the benefits of the single-payer option. At last count they will be stopping in approximately 23 states, on their way to demonstrate in Washington. They need volunteers and our support. Please spread the word.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/32445707#32445707
Is that too much to ask? Dammit, I don't think so. "Maybe I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." We HAVE had some very good laws down through the years (Medicare was one; the Securities and Exchange Act; and so on). It was unholy-hell to get them written and purgatory to get them passed, but once they DID pass they changed the country and brought about prosperity.
The legislation that is now being crafted SHOULD have been passed twenty years ago, but that is water under the bridge now. We're faced with several fundamentally-broken systems in our nation right now ... banking, finance, insurance ... and we must now, not only fix them, but fix them Excellently.
Watch this and I'm sure you'll feel alot better.
I don't usually watch 'Morning Joe', but this is great.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/32445707#32445707
and congressman support the money machine because it finances them personally. The
cost of insurance and/or healthcare is destroying families and individuals, this is not a concern
of those mentioned representatives. We elected these people to represent us, the general
population, not special interests. If they do not represent us then they are charlatans and frauds.
We, the electorate know who these frauds are. Who these frauds are needs to be made known
in future primaries and elections, there is no ther message, only this message, it must be
repeated endlessly and tirelessly until "peoples" representatives have replaced them.
They're still working out what to pass! And it's not like the solution of what to do, given a country like this, is obvious and vested in just a single choice. It isn't.
We are still weeks away, I think, from anything remotely resembling a consensus.
Whether we agree with these Congressmen or despise them (or both), their job is extremely complex if it is to be done well. And, it must be done well.
Its time to take to the streets. Do it in front of the offices of those who are wavering. Just do it right, not like the screamers.
http://www.squidoo.com/eugenehrobinson
If it turns out I'm wrong, I will just work harder to get better Democrats in office, because clearly there is a problem when a majority isn't good enough.
Also like that your a cub's fan. Me too.
0 fans, eh? Go figure.
The people have finally figured out what the public option means, and they don't like it. Whether you like it or not the average American sees the public option as Socialism on steroids.
http://www.politicsandtechnology.com/2007/07/make-no-mistake.html