I am a big fan of basketball, and I've always been fascinated by the way a game can be going all one direction, and all of a sudden, something happens and the momentum starts to shift. Players and teams who were nailing every shot are suddenly missing every one of them, the loose balls one team was getting all start going to the other side. Everything changes. It's all in the collective psychologies of the teams.
The legislative process often shifts just like a basketball game. The facts of the legislation may be the same, the official positions of the legislators may be the same, the debates about substance may be the same, the polling on the issue may be the same, but something happens to shift the psychology, and everything changes. That is where we are with health care reform right now.
After the Scott Brown victory, we had a few days of unmitigated panic, where Democrats were suddenly convinced that no matter how close they were to the finish line, all was lost and they had to leave the field in desperate retreat on the health care issue. Thankfully, that herd instinct subsided, and Democrats started realizing how feckless they would look for spending a year on the issue, coming this far, and not getting anything done.
Now we have a different problem: everyone wants to pass health care, but the process for getting there is procedurally complicated and politically difficult. The Senate doesn't want to go first, but the House simply can't: unless the Senate makes the adjustments they need to make, there is just no way to get 218 votes in the House. None. Nancy Pelosi is a remarkable Speaker in my my view, the most effective since Tip O'Neill, but not even she could get 218 votes for an unfixed Senate bill. The benefits tax is highly unpopular with House members, the infamous Ben Nelson special deal makes a bunch more walk away, Blue Dogs are nervous because of the political numbers, progressives don't like the low subsidies to the poor and middle class or the the fact that there is no public option. Pelosi probably couldn't get 180 votes for an unfixed Senate bill, let alone 218. The Senate may not want to go first, but it has to, there is no other option. And the White House needs to show more leadership on this and help lead them to that conclusion.
Speaking of psychology, the ultimate case study is the public option fight. Before Joe Lieberman blew up the deal, there were definitely 51 votes for a public option. Once he threw his tantrum and killed it in the old 60-vote Democratic Senate, though, a lot of Democratic Senators were secretly relieved: they didn't want to have to choose between making insurance company lobbyists and PACs mad and voting against a popular provision that their base loved passionately. After Brown won and the reconciliation discussion re-started, most Senators didn't want to go back to the issue because the fight over it had been so divisive, and Senators didn't want to have to make that tough choice. People hoped the issue would just quietly go away, and even a lot of the DC groups who had been working on it - all of whom had other big priorities in the health care fight, and all of whom were just desperate to pass a bill - were convinced to give up on the public option.
Grassroots progressives refused to give up, though. They refused to go quietly into the night, refused to accept the psychology of defeat, and they kept fighting. They got a letter endorsing the public option going that House members signed, more and more until the number shot past 100. Then they got a few Senators to take up the cause, and more of them signed up, too - the numbers have now hit 19 signatures. And then, Chuck Schumer, a member of the Democratic leadership, signed on. Then the White House said they would support it if Harry Reid said yes. Then Harry Reid said yes. And suddenly, the psychology has changed. A few days ago, everyone in DC thought the public option was dead for sure. Now, it's back on the table. Hard not to think of that old cliché that gym coaches pound into you when you're young: quitters never win, and winners never quit. Grassroots progressives never quit, and they deserve a lot of credit.
So health care reform lives, and the public option does too. But let's be clear: just as the pessimism about both was not right, neither should wild optimism be the feeling of the moment. We still have big, big hurdles yet to go before we get either the public option, or health care reform in general, passed. Procedural hurdles, political hurdles, psychological hurdles aplenty. Even with a Senate fix, getting to 218 in the House will be an extraordinary challenge, the biggest of Pelosi's career. And Harry Reid, who in my view has been very unfairly maligned in all this, still has a huge job getting 51 votes for the public option and for health care reform in general: he has a lot of Senators who really don't want to revisit the whole issue, and definitely don't want to have to make a vote on the public option. To Reid's credit, he has been working his butt off to get this done, but there are still about 15 Democratic Senators who are standing in the way.
Here's the final part of the health care psychology: everyone is sick of this issue. It needs to get done. The President and his White House need to be focused and tough in pushing this to conclusion. This is why we elect a president: to lead in the tough moments. And if health care reform -- with a public option -- gets passed, the psychology of this whole election changes again. Voters would see that the Democrats can persevere and get things done, and a discouraged base would get a huge energy boost. It is time for Democrats to dig in and win the game.
(and all the worse for having a personal - and even worse, not an employer- mandate;)
- is not a "win" BY ANY MEANS, and from the POV of any condition of having or not having insurance.
Big business will ALWAYS find a way around any attempt at "regulation" or "reform"
- because they can ALWAYS afford the resources, especially with a busness -owned government; legislature, SCOTUS, and even apparently POTUS.
Our country is terminally broken, and can't be fixed. The interests of Corporations and wealth are ALL that affect the government, and their interests are DIRECTLY opposed to those of the individual..
Even a slight gesture toward a "free market" (i.e., deregulation,)
has proven the one irreversible death blow to an economy and a society.
Unfortunately, the USA was the destructive test.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Changing-the-US-Senate-rules-bring-back-democracy/278379601906?ref=mf
It is about the crucial NEEDS of American citizens
However, let us be VERY clear about these hurdles including the President himself, who won't draw a line in the sand, stand up and fight or lift even a finger to help the public option. In fact, he's been actively sabotaging it.
That corporate campaign cash speaks louder than anything. Even though the Republicans had nowhere near the same majority the Democrats have now when they were in control, the Democrats are likely relieved by Scott Brown's victory because they can hide behind "only" having 59 votes as an excuse for not even trying to keep their campaign promises, let their corporate campaign contributors be upset.
Corporate campaign money has completely and totally corrupted BOTH major parties. Don't kid yourself that the Democrats haven't been corrupted or at least co-opted by it, including our President.
We need to keep pressing for a public option, for there are still too many Democrats who will see it as a bargaining chip or as a way to pacify the base until the primaries are over so they can go back to shilling for corporations unchallenged after the election.
The public option still has life, but those corporations have unlimited campaign warchests.
The best thing that could happen is one of these corporate shill Democrats losing in a primary to a genuine progressive. That would at least send a message that even all that corporate money won't save you.
Ongoing poll and commentary on Newsvine:
"Do You Agree That The Majority of Americans Support The Public Option"
http://thomastonpaine.newsvine.com/_news/2010/02/19/3918185-poll-do-you-agree-that-most-americans-support-the-public-option-
Here is the new anthem for the public health care plan, the "Red Party Folly," sung to the tune of "Red River Valley." Very funny video performed by Los Angeles artist Joseph Somers and his friend, Chris. Has sing-along lyrics and bouncing ball. It's dedicated to the Blue Dog Democrats who are caving under Republican pressure on health care reform.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skfYpPcn4Nk
Then Democrats can tell their base: "Oh how we really tried, etc."
Same 'ol bait and switch routine....
When a completely unnecessary industry like Health insurance can hurt, kill and bankrupt so many of us the Government's job is to STOP them.
All insurance companies do is write a check if they can't weasel out of it, yet they harm more citizens than Al Quaeda ever will.