What Should Obama's Strategy For the August Recess Be?

The Washington Post does something in their Sunday newspaper called Topic A, which refers to whatever they think the biggest topic of the week is. This week they asked myself and five other people (Donna Brazile, Dana Perino, Doug Schoen, Shannon Brownlee and Dan Schnur) to react to the question "What should Obama do in this August recess?" in 200 words or less. Since they only gave us 200 words, I thought I would explain my thinking a little more in a blog post.

My basic belief is this: that the Obama presidency is at a fundamental crossroads on health care. If they can't pass some kind of serious reform, a reform that requires that they take on and force the insurance industry to accept real competition and accountability, Obama will be immeasurably weakened. Other powerful special interests like Wall Street and the energy industry will know that if he can't win against the insurance industry, early in his presidency on his number one priority, that he is not likely to take them on and win against them either. In addition, his budget, which assumed health care reform, will be a shambles. And politically, a loss on his top priority combined with falling poll numbers and a continued weak economy will make him the weakest President this early in his presidency since at least Jimmy Carter.

Given those incredibly high stakes, I think he needs to go all in, announce the end of business-as-usual politics, and go for it. Canceling his vacation, while I hate to suggest it because Presidents need some time off and this one certainly works a lot harder than our last president, would send that kind of no-more-business-as-usual statement.

I recommended going to all the swing vote Senators' states, and meeting with them on their home turf and doing town halls with them, because it is putting pressure on them while not burning the bridge to getting their vote. For me, going to their home to sit down with them is a gesture of humility, a signal that he will go the extra mile to work something out with them, while doing a town hall with these Senators' constituents is a symbol of what is best about the democratic process, that the president is willing to dialogue with people. The contrast with the kind of mob-like tactics the right wingers are stoking could not be greater.

The stakes could not be higher, and at moments like this, I think the president needs to double down on his bet. To lose now, to let the special interests win, would be a huge setback for his entire presidency, because it will signal to everyone that the kind of change Obama promised in his campaign has not come to Washington. Now is the time to push ahead and make real change happen.

What I wrote for the WaPo is below.

This is the most important August recess in modern history. President Obama has gambled big by staking the fate of his presidency on health care. The debate this month -- in thousands of town hall meetings, demonstrations, news conferences, speeches and ads -- will decide whether members of Congress come back determined to get something important done or determined to take the easy path and sweep the issue under the rug. The alliance of insurance company money and "birther" mobs has raised the stakes even higher.

Obama should announce that he is canceling his vacation and traveling to every swing senator's state to meet with them on their home turf and to participate with them in town hall meetings. He needs to declare that business as usual in Washington is done and that he will not rest until we have real health reform. He should be clear: He will not cave to demands of insurance companies that oppose a public health-care option. He should rally his supporters to the cause, not just with occasional e-mails but in speeches calling on them to take to the streets and knock on doors until the bill is passed.

Comments

[Factonfact]

Sure, Mike, but lest you forget it indeed was Democrats who failed to vote their majority in favor of the Clinton healthcare bill. And you know how that turned out.

Bill Maher is not alone in wondering if Democrats have the right stuff this time around to vote their big majorities on behalf of the people.

We'll see whether or not the Democrats this time around will vote their big majorities and actually give the people the comprehensive reform they need, deserve and WERE PROMISED that includes a robust public plan -- or indeed whether Democrats will vote out a watered down version with some sort of tricky "health exchanges" provision -- or whether Democrats will do little or NOTHING AT ALL, declare victory without winning and retire to their counting houses to tote up their personal winnings.

Et tu, Brute?

[newtonsapple]

"And politically, a loss on his top priority combined with falling poll numbers and a continued weak economy will make him the weakest President this early in his presidency since at least Jimmy Carter."

Unfortunately, Democrats in Congress have done a lousy job of informing the public about their health care reform proposals, as has the White House and various media outlets.

Conservative opposition in all its forms has been very effective in shouting down any decent proposals currently on the table.

Now that the White House is trying to get a handle on this debate, they're finding much hostility from some members of the public who have been indoctrinated with utter falsehoods by the likes of Palin, Beck, Limbaugh, Boehner, McConnel, Cornin and others.

Compound all of the above with ever-obsessed media pundits tracking, gauging and grading the President on EVERY one of his utterances and reporting poor grades through media outlets and you wonder why his personal rating hangs in the balance so early on in his presidency.

We haven't given the man a chance.

[Andrew Kreig - Huffpost Blogger]

Great column and recommendations. One question I've not really seen addressed fully by those who essential want to tinker around the edges of our excessive-cost and otherwise failing system: How do you reconcile your argument that the current system is pretty much OK -- and fears that we should all be very, very worried about a flu pandemic of historic dimensions?

[JacklynD]

The town debates need to be halted now. It is ridiculous to have a debate about an unformed health care package. The meetings are being hi-jacked for numerous reasons and are not informative or productive. Every nut case in the US can get coverage from the media.

I propose monitored presidential-style prime time televised debates. The questions and answers can be deliberate and well thought out. A series of debates held over a few months will give our country clarity and civility. It would be nice to have some truthful information from other countries about what does and doesn't work presented as well.

We are in a unique position to craft a wonderful program for our citizens if only everyone would take a deep breath and proceed by looking for what is best.

What is going on right now is a travesty and is ratcheting up fear and anger.

[ReedYoung]

President Obama doesn't need to skip his vacation, he only needs to remind each Congressional Democratic that right now 18,000 people are killed every year by lack of coverage or denial of coverage they've already bought, by insurance corporations (or as I like to call them, "death panels"). Whatever bill they put on his desk when he returns from vacation and they from recess had better ensure that every American has the same coverage as Congress does now. And if it doesn't, he will not join them in rejoicing about how many million more will have some coverage, he will measure the degree of their success by how many of the 18,000 whose lives hang in the balance this year will still be killed by their Act of half measures.

[jrh0]

For bipartisan support, Republicans need to have some victories to show their base. Dems fumbled when they presented health care proposals with all acceptable compromises already built in. Now that it appears Dems may need to act alone, they must introduce a Single Payer Bill and either win on that or compromise to a robust Public Option with bipartisan support only after a big political battle. Then Repubs can brag they saved us from the "socialism" of Single Payer. Congress really is a kindergarten, and we can't get any progress without letting everyone have a trophy.

[WorkingClass]

The whole party is on trial. When the voters give you the presidency and both houses they expect you to act. The Democrats could have betrayed their corporate masters and given us single payer (and card check). We would have kept them in power for generations. Could have, would have. sigh* I look forward to registering with the new American Labor Party.

[Bonobo]

Yeah. Democrats don't really seem to realize they don't have to beg for stuff from the Republicans, anymore.

A big part of the problem is that as long as Republicans keep up the looney talk, Dems aren't actually in that much danger of losing more than a few seats. Our winner-take-all voting system creates a very high entry barrier for new parties because you need either one-third or one-half of the vote on the first try (plurality or majority). That's pretty difficult to sell voters on. A proportional voting system, though, would have a much lower threshold. If we don't change the system, how can we ever expect the outcome to change?

[IFTYS]

If this health care bill is SO GREAT, WHY wont our politicians who want this boondoggle health care, WHY wont they drop their super deluxe health care for this health care package?

Can anyone explain? The answer is NO ONE can explain this. And when asked pointedly, obama Himself Would NOT Pledge His Family To His Own Healthcare Plan???

So Why Should WE???

DNC-2010-2012-RIP (I hear taps playing softly in the background)

[hmargret]

Exactly!

Obama and the Dems sold out. they are losing the voter base every day. they don't care---YET.

[S1m0n]

Obama needs to stick to the "no freakouts!" rule. Cancelling his vacation for an immediate tour of all 50 states looks like John McCain with his hair on fire cancelling his campaign to rush to Washington for urgent meetings!

[Bonobo]

Agree with this part. It would look like he's begging, and there's nothing Red Staters hate more than displays of weakness. HOWEVER, he needs to get a much better plan. Supposedly, the administration is working on one, now, but I am very skeptical that they have learned the correct lessons from this (keep it simple, and attack the current systems that 80% of people think is good only because they haven't tested it).

[Poldolino]

You think Obama would be safe doing town halls?

They're going to need good security.

[gotovt]

Any assault or attempted assault from the Mob to harm Pres Obama would damage the GOP for years.

[S1m0n]

The oppositition is THIS close to overplaying their hand into disaster. Most of them don't know it, and half the ones that do can't stop themselves anyway. What's even funnier is that they think they're winning.

It's time for some political judo.

Everyone in the democratic caucus should be going home to their district to organise town hall meetings in every small town. Send an army of operatives with microphones and vodeo cameras. Get hours and hours of footage of wild-eyed insurance company rent-a-mobs shrieking, crashing the gate, snake-handling, speaking in tongues, going out of their minds to disrupt meetings, and generally looking, sounding, and acting like Fred God Damn Phelps. They don't have far to go.

Meanwhile, the democrats need to stay calm and stick to the issue. Look a little exasperated if things get really crazy, but never ever feak out, pick a fight, or yell back. Don't get emotional.

And that's the meme: folks, this ain't your grandfathers GOP! They've turned into Fred Phelps. We're trying to have a serious conversation about healthcare for you and your loved ones, and all they can think of to do is yell gibberish and talk-radio slogans at every camera and microphone they see. If this issue wasn't so important, we'd be embarrassed for them. As it is, we're just sad. This used to be a party of principle.

[noaxe397]

All good points, but you left out the biggest one: When Congress reconvenes after the recess the Dems must vote health care reform into law, on a party line vote if necessary. If the RNC/GOP complains, Dems can blame the protestors for disrupting their attempt to get constiuent input. If the Yelling Points crowd screams Dems are taking away their choice, Dems can blame RNC/GOP for not having a plan of their own.


We get HC reform, and all the blame gets dumped on the other guy.

Now THAT's politcal judo worthy of Karl Rove.

[lukasiak]

Lux seems to be living in a different reality than the rest of us. In his world, Barack Obama is committed to genuine reform of the health care system --- in this one, Obama showed no interest in real health care reform (HINT: you don't put Max Baucus in charge if you are serious about reform) until it became obvious that the Baucus sell out to the health care parasites wasn't going to cut it, and would result in political damage to Obama.
_
Obama's only choice right now for effective REFORM is to reboot the entire process -- start with hearings on HR 676 (medicare for all) and work from there. Of course, that assumes that Obama wants real health care reform, and not just something to burnish his image....

[ReedYoung]

I disagree with your basic premise.

"My basic belief is this: that the Obama presidency is at a fundamental crossroads on health care."

It is not; he promised to sign only health care reform that satisfies certain criteria, and whether or not Congress provides him something worthy of his signature is on Congress, not him. His agenda got a great deal of support, not local members of Congress, and they are the ones who are vulnerable if they fail to to do their part to deliver that agenda. The same is true of environmental and financial legislation, for this voter anyway.

[kitkatborn]

As a leader, it unfortunately is on his head that people will place the blame. I agree with you but, once again, perception is everything.

[Austintatious]

Obama promised to fight for the American people, every day of his presidency. As a matter of choice, he's failing to do so. Instead, he's playing it as safe, politically, as he can. Yes, we can rightly blame Congress if legitimate reform is not forthcoming, but to suggest that Obama will be without blame is dead wrong, and here's why.

It was known from the start that real healthcare reform would be difficult, if not impossible. The only possibility for real reform, also the factor that is glaringly absent, is aggressive, relentless and focused leadership from the White House. This President and his team are all over the place on this, anything but focused and committed to anything specific, and their conduct is a disaster.

Instead of leading, Obama decided (1) to sit back and allow Congress to write the bill, rather than come out with his own legislation; (2) to feed us the ridiculous suggestion that bipartisanship was ever a real possibility; (3) to throw the public option ( the only factor absolutely necessary to meaningful reform) under the train; (4) to conduct secret negotiations and make secret deals with big pharma and the other healthcare bigs most responsible for the disaster that is our so called healthcare system.

If healthcare reform fails, and failure must be defined as anything coming out of Congress without a legitimate public option, the Congress will surely be to blame but, just as surely, this President will bear much of the responsibility.

[ReedYoung]

"(3) to throw the public option ( the only factor absolutely necessary to meaningful reform) under the train;"

The bills have barely gotten out of committees and have not passed through House / Senate reconciliation. Nothing is under any train. Negotiations are still in progress, and I'm encouraged by how desperate insurance corporations must be to take such risks with criminal law as inciting violence with proven, on-the-record misrepresentations of the truth.

[Chernynkaya]

August is halfway over. I understand your reasoning, Mr. Lux, for having Obama go to the conservadems' town halls- and there are good reasons to woo those reps if the bill that we want is weakened through compromise. I say this not just as a sour-grapes progressive. I believe that a limp, ineffective bill will be much worse than nothing.

Since the stakes are so high, what would be the outcome if Obama did something completely unexpected, like, say, take health care reform off the table completely or really double down and announce he is starting over with single payer?

Either one would drive Congress crazy- but the real Dems would get over it. The Progressives would be incredibly energized by single payer, and if he took everything off the table, it would befuddle his enemies, while he regroups for a later fight.

In any case., I am suggesting an out-of-the-box game changer, because even if he gets something passed, we both know he failed. He has very little time.

[wilsonveteran]

Lets talk health care. America already has a public option an all Americans have been eligable for it. It is called the U.S. Military. You just join for 20 years and they will then pay 80 percent of your medical bills. There are some things to watch out for like those people that might be shooting at you. If you want public health care join the military an stop trying to get something for nothing.

[jsarets]

Or break the law. Prison inmates receive publicly-funded healthcare.

[BocaMom]

The number one thing is to fix the economy and get people back to work. Once that is fixed, everyone will follow. If not, the Republicans will regain the Congress in 2010.

[masher]

Exactly. But Obama has done nothing to put us on a path to jobs. He hasn't even ended federal regulations that import labor into the US to replace Americans *in* America. Its crazy. But Obama has left in place the worst of the Bush era policies. So one can only conclude that Obama is of the same mind as Bush.

Why do we still place China in "most favored" status? China's pollution is impacting us here in the Northwest of the US. Why aren't we renegotiating NAFTA? Why not implement e-verify? I guess those are even worse than H-1B. But H-1B would be easier to end since there are even Repubs who don't like it.

So the only conclusion is that Obama doesn't care about real jobs. He is happy to inflate the bubble with deficit spending. Once the bubble deflates he will just borrow more. Why? Because corporations like it this way. They want America to fail. When America fails they hope to turn the US into a pure statist capitalist nation like China. See, US corporations like China, alot. They can do whatever they want in China.