Who Wins the Battle During August Recess Will Determine the Fate of Health Care Reform

Usually when I leave DC for a few days, as I did recently, my mood and hopefulness about the country improves -- it's a lot easier to be hopeful when you meet real people working in their communities for change. And usually when I talk with my insider Democratic friends in DC, my optimism fades because everyone in DC tends to be so cynical and overly-cautious. But on this trip, I got really depressed with the steady drumbeat of bad news coming out of the traditional media about health care. When I got back yesterday, though, and started talking to people who were actually working on things here, I remembered how relentlessly negative big media tends to be, how every story emphasizes the conventional wisdom story line about how health care reform is impossible to pass.

This health care fight is just one motherf-er of a battle. Every step of the way will be really hard and really painful. The final trade offs will piss virtually everybody off. Passing something real, something that actually matters, has never been more than a 50/50 proposition. But talking with people on the Hill and at the White House, and watching what has happened over the last 24 hours, I now believe our chances at real reform are still alive.

The fact is, Henry Waxman and Nancy Pelosi forged a deal with the Blue Dogs that didn't require them to give up anything that really mattered very much on the substance. While the Energy and Commerce bill will be the worst of the 3 bills reported out of House committees, it still has most of the important things you would want to see in a health care reform bill, including a decent public option. It is a great thing that progressive members of the House are pushing back hard against the bad compromises that were made, though, because progressives need to send a clear signal that they will not be rolled. When the 3 bills are merged during the August recess, that pressure will help deliver a very solid version of the legislation.

Speaking of the August recess, while I am not thrilled that the House put off the floor vote until after it happens, that is also not a disaster for us. But it is a test for those of us who believe in serious health care reform. The battle over who wins the organizing and message fight in the August recess -- grassroots reformers or the astroturf insurance lobby in league with right wingers everywhere -- will decide the fate of health care reform, pure and simple.

The conventional wisdom in the media is simply wrong about the nature of the health care fight: the Senate Finance committee is not determinative. That's what the Republicans, the insurance lobbyists, the conservative Democrats want everyone to believe, and that mantra is being pushed day and night in the offices and hallways of the DC establishment. But it doesn't have to be that way. Four committees out of five did the right thing, and the signal that I'm getting from the White House is that they are still fighting hard for the public option, and Senate Finance is not the end all and be all. What will change the dynamic is progressives winning the organizing and messaging fight in August. Democrats have 60 votes in the Senate, and at least two Republican Senators from a small progressive-leaning state in play. If our side out-organizes the insurance/right wing astroturfers, if the White House and Reid and Pelosi put every bit of muscle into winning the fight for real reform, it can still happen. Everything is at stake here, as I wrote yesterday: if we don't win this fight, the Obama Presidency, Democratic prospects in the 2010 election, and any hopes we have for victories on other big issues are all in deep, deep trouble. But we still have a real shot at winning this battle, and now is when we need to pull out all the stops to do it.

Comments

[Chernynkaya]

A question: What would really happen if health care reform was put off for a year? The media tells me that President Obama's polling will inevitably go down, as does all Presidents, so he will lose political capital. Also, we know that insurance/pharma will spend millions on false ads to change public opinion.

On the other hand, those in favor of single payer can mount a campaign too. As far as Obama's political capital, I'm not seeing that it's making a difference now, so what if it goes down. Look how the birther story is getting debunked more as time goes on. Maybe the right's "deather" lie will be debunked as well. The media is lazy, and will chase the easiest story- Let's feed them stories of the bribed politicians voting against reform. I also think we need more time to organize rallies for single payer, and maybe if we do, if we keep the pressure on, we can at least get a strong public option at the end of the day.

Lastly,before this recession ends, more will lose jobs- and benefits. More will need government insurance. Obama didn't win the Presidency easily, and it took almost 2 years of campaigning, but he won in the end. I'm willing to wait for real health care reform.

[noneIn2008]

Let's hope the people win and they allow the light of day to shine on the various special interest details loaded into the bills. Bashing the insurance companies is a facade meant to cover the reality that the bill is the Health Insurance mercantilism bill, written by the large insurance companies. The big guys have designed the bill to eliminate most of the 1,300 health insurance companies and get it down to the big 4-5 insurance companies. The mercantilists continue to use the same playbook.

[hsr0601]

I share the opinion that only a strong public option will be capable of getting the premium inflation under control.

[Chazet2]

"But we still have a real shot at winning this battle, and now is when we need to pull out all the stops to do it."
What does that mean? What stops? Who is to do the pulling? Who is organizing anything? What voices will we hear apart from Obama's and the right wing? Obama is left alone on the stage. Who is organizing anything?

[CTtransplant]

I am. Care to help spread the word? This is much too important not to get involved!

If you agree, please sign - then forward to everyone and anyone you know! Thanks!

http://www.petitiononline.com/PubOp676/petition.html

[brittawareham]

Organizing for America. Go to the web page and get involved. There should be an event and activities listed near you. http://www.barackobama.com/

[Chernynkaya]

thank you!

[CTtransplant]

Look, I don't know if the rest of you are as fed up as I am with the obstruction and political gameplaying going on with this health care reform...but I DO know this - the Republican obstructionists and the Blue Dog Dems have absolutely NO clue what the rest of us are going through with healthcare. Maybe it's time they did!

If you agree, please sign the petition below, and forward it - any way you can - to anyone and everyone you know! Time to let them know how we feel!!!!

http://www.petitiononline.com/PubOp676/petition.html

[CommunistUtopia]

This big government approach does not seem to be working. I am off the Democrats plan. Unemployment is now at nearly 10%. It was never above about 8% under Bush. I may need to change my name since I am thinking that my idea of Communism is not working. I am moving to the Republican side. Demint/Palin 2012.

[Heartlight3]

I don't know where everyone got the idea that Obama promised that unemployment would not get above 8%. What I heard him say was that they would try to keep it below 8% and were hoping that what they were doing would accomplish that, but he clearly said that unemployment would be the last indicator to recover, and that it would keep rising after other things turned around and could end up in double digits. Blaming him for the fact that unemployment is where it is seems disingenuous to me. And using that to say that because unemployment is in double digits means that the stimulus isn't working when it has barely started being distributed is also disingenuous.

[Nakona]

Under Reagan, unemployment hit 10%. The Great depression it hit 20's. It's going to take a decade to recover from this. It's sheer insanity to think the effects of this, which is global, will go away in 1-2 years.

[quidam56]

This morning on Fox & Friends they were interviewing a couple from England about their lousy European health care. This isn"t about European"s or Canadian"s. It"s about our health care. I used to work in health care and am ashamed of what is called quality health care in this area. My father had good insurance, went to what I thought was THE best health care facility for a three day stay that turned into a ten month long nightmare. His care was rationed. He was bleeding to death and the nurse who was taking care of him was practicing medicine as a physician without a physician"s license. He was going into shock. Their excuse was the room temperature could have caused him to bleed to death. I would like to know where Rick Boucher and Tim Kaine have been knowing the quality of care here in comparison to what"s being sold by the snake oil merchants. I know where Bredesen stands after several years of contacting him and hearing nothing except to be passed on to the agency I started with five years ago. I was told the health care my father got was "horrifying" yet perfectly within the parameters of what the state of Tennessee and the health care system calls "the acceptable standards of health care". The status quo is doing more harm than good. www.wisecountyissues.com/?p=62 (I warn you ahead of time there are some graphic and shocking photos.)

[nurse92]

http://www.thefoxnation.com/media/2009/07/30/oops-krugman-embarrasses-himself
This video speaks for itself.

[Normanz]

No public option = No change we can believe in.

[jalex26000]

This article is funny. This issue was decided already, were just watching the TV illusory drama. Obama has all this support, a majority of democrats in the house and senate. and he cant get health reform passed because of "blue dog" democrats? All he has to do is play his race card and talk about his mandate and they fall in line. this man doesnt want healthcare reform because he doesnt give a hoot about anyones health but his own. once you drop the idea that this "con"fidence man is here to help you and support you and change. you begin to see he is here to keep you quiet for a little longer while the rest of the wealth of this nation is siphoned off. then you begin to see the truth...


OBAMA=BUSH

[indc]

They have to send a signal that they are fighting hard.. what a laugh... of course, no one really thinks they are because Obama fights hard for nothing of consequence.... not end to wars, not accountability not universal single payer healthcare or even a non-laughable so called public option. If there really was a public option it would put insurance companies out of business because to begin with, it would save 30% or more on costs which now go to support 1.5 million a day expenditures by insurance companies to try to make sure there is no credible public option, and, of course, the lavish working conditions and life styles of execs.... what a laugh still fighting hard, but no one notices so one has to provide a sound bite... Obama is a real, real deep disappointment... no courage, no fight, no conviction, not guts... this is not a debate it is a struggle for health care and peace of mind for tens of millions, hundreds of millions of citizens, it is a struggle of wills of health assurance for the American people vs. profits, high costs, and more profits for an industry that makes money off people fears of being ill, and then screws many of them if they do become ill because paying for what has been paid for reduces profits.... Obama caves!

[brittawareham]

Why don't you try doing something to improve the world instead of a spewing your negativity everywhere?

[Ronnie Ruff]

You better!!!

[robbep]

A weak and watered down public option does no one any good. What I wld love to see anyone in the media who has access to a yella dawg is ask them how can they say they are concerned about the defecit when they want the government to pay more for medical services? It does not make sense. In one breath they are talking about fiscal discipline and in the other breath they dont want the public plan to use medicare rates for reimbursement! This is a bunch of gooblygunk! They wld rather the government pay more for medical services than force the insurance companies to compete. WLD SOMEONE PLS CALL THEM OUT ON THIS!!!!!! We need to help progressive members of congress stand up to the president and say not to his healthcare bill if he insists on signing a watered down bill.

[3rdCitizen]

It may happen that Obama's health care reform effort will either be defeated or get hijacked into a sham. If that happens, I'll agree with the chorus of denunciation. But, for now, the game is still being played & the outcome is far from certain. If you're doing everything you can to promote real reform (contacting Congress, writing letters to the editor, phone banking, contributing if you have the funds), then feel free to criticize those who are blowing this. If not, do something constructive with your anger.

[Nakona]

I have written to everyone imaginable, multiple times on the Whitehouse and Healthreform websites. How can a President with an overwhelming majority, be under such attack withing his own party? Well I guess appointing Baucus explains that, but why did he do it? It's a setup GW would never accept if he wanted something done and would ram it thru with reconciliation to boot. Bipartisanship was never within the realm of reality in this universe, so just get it done. The Obama administration is becoming increasingly more transparent as time goes by.

[Chernynkaya]

No president ever appoints heads of Senate or House committees- the House and Senate Majority leaders do that. And who appoints the House and Senate leaders? The other senators in their Parties.

If you want to blame Obama- and I have complained about some of his leadership- at least get the facts straight.

[derekc06]

Well we really took the bait this time on health care reform... We all really thought that Obama might make a difference in this country and instead he's offered up "We're still gonna fight hard".. There shouldn't be any "fighting" about it. It should be done and that's it. It's not something that you can win or lose. Health care for all Americans, every single one of us, is what is expected from our lawmakers.

And if that's not what you expect from yours you should reevaluate your morals.

[brittawareham]

So we no longer have three branches of government and the president makes the laws? When did that happen? I must have fallen asleep and missed the dissolution of Congress.