How Al Gore Could Become President Without Running in the Democratic Primary

The answer is simple--No candidate wins a majority of the delegates in the Democratic primaries and caucuses and thus no candidate is guaranteed the nomination at the Democratic Convention. After the first or second round of voting, delegates who are pledged to a particular candidate are by rule released and can vote for whomever they choose. Gore is drafted, his name is placed in nomination, and rather than pick a candidate who could not garner a majority of Democratic primary voters, the Convention rallies around Gore who, of course, has already won the popular vote for President once before.

A fantasy? Maybe. But Democratic Party delegate selection rules make such a scenario conceivable. Approximately 80% of the Democratic Convention delegates are selected through primaries and caucuses. These delegates are awarded on a proportional basis. Any candidate receiving at least 15% of the votes in a congressional district receives a proportional number of delegates. For example, if, in a Congressional district, Hillary Clinton received 35% of the votes, Barack Obama and John Edwards each received 25%, and another Candidate--say Bill Richardson or Joe Biden received 15%--The delegates would be awarded in that proportion. In a multi-candidate race, it is conceivable that no candidate would receive a majority of the elected delegates before the Convention. After one or two Convention ballots in which no candidate receives a majority, the pledged delegates are released and can vote for whomever they please, including a drafted Al Gore.

There's a further wild card. There are a number of so-called "super-delegates" consisting of Democratic House and Senate Members, Democratic Governors, members of the Democratic National Committee, and a handful of others who are not pledged to any candidate. On the one hand, if no candidate received a majority of the pledged delegates, it is conceivable that enough of the super-delegates could commit to the candidate with a plurality of the pledged delegate and guarantee that candidate's nomination on the first ballot. On the other hand, the super-delegates might be reluctant to back a weakened candidate who could not receive a majority of support from Democratic primary voters and might leave it to the Convention to pick the candidate.

This scenario seemed more likely a few months ago in which there was a multi-candidate Democratic field with a number of candidates having the potential of receiving more than the 15% threshold and denying any candidate a majority of the pledged delegates. At this moment, 3 months out from the first caucuses and primaries, Hillary Clinton is opening up a commanding lead in national polls (less so in Iowa and New Hampshire), although still less than 50%. (As of today, an open Republican Convention seems more likely, with a 4 way race between Giuliani, Romney, Thompson and McCain making the possibility of no Republican garnering a majority of the elected delegates a real possibility.)

But, if, as the voters become more focused with Democratic primaries and caucuses growing closer, Democratic voters--who tell pollsters that they now support Hillary based on fame and name recognition--take a second look and start to have reservations about her electability and her triangulating political stances, this calculus could change. If Hillary to slipped in Iowa and New Hampshire; if her polling should fall to less than 40%; if John Edwards can increase his support against Clinton, making it at least a 3-way race instead of a 2-way race between Clinton and Obama; and if other candidates like Richardson and Biden can pass the 15% threshold to collect delegates in several states, it is still possible that no candidate would garner more than 50% of the elected Convention delegates.

How should Gore respond to all of this? I think it unlikely that he will choose to enter the Democratic primaries. While he may still have dreams of claiming the Presidency that was taken from him in 2000, I believe he is truly adverse to participating in a 14 month electoral campaign. Running in the Democratic primary could also reduce him from an icon to an ordinary politician and while, he would certainly garner significant support, there is no guarantee he could overtake Hillary at this point.

An open Convention would become more likely if Gore were to endorse either Edwards or Obama in the primaries, both of whom are closer to Gore's politics than Hillary. An Edwards endorsement would go a long way towards turning it back into a 3-way race. An Obama endorsement could open the way to a Gore-Obama ticket if there's an open Convention and Gore were to be drafted. At the same time, Gore can maintain an ambiguous stance when asked if he would accept a Convention draft, stating that he is not seeking it, but would have to give it serious consideration if his party turned to him at the Convention. The possibility that Gore could be nominated in an open Convention might encourage a significant number of Democratic voters not to rally around a Clinton bandwagon and give their votes to other primary candidates.

It would not be so bad for the Democrats to be without a certain candidate between the end of the primary season and the Democratic Convention. It would prevent the Republicans from focusing on a particular Democrat to Swift Boat. At the same time, it is possible that the Republicans could also be without a guaranteed Convention nominee.

If Gore were to be drafted in an exciting nominating Convention, he would emerge unscarred as a candidate and with tremendous momentum to run a short and high-energy campaign from September to November. Campaign contributions would roll in. The Democratic base would be energized. The Republican base would not be as galvanized to come to the polls to express their hatred of Hillary. It's hard to imagine than many people who voted for Gore in 2000 would not vote for him again, and it likely that millions more who regret their vote for Bush would now want to give Gore a second chance. It could be the most exciting Presidential campaign in memory.

A dream? Perhaps. But not an impossible dream.

Comments

[Rianna]

I have always hoped that Al Gore would run this time....but it seems almost impossible now. I am very disappointed that he is not a candidate, he will always be my first choice.
Who can blame him for not wanting to get into such a dirty arena. The media did not give him a chance...they had decided that Bush was their man, and ridiculed Al Gore, exaggerating everything he did or did not do. It is too late now, the damage was done, and we are stuck with an incompetent frat boy. Timing is everything, and I think it is too late for Al Gore to campaign. We have to face reality, sad though it may be.

[castlerider]

NOW we're talking... This is the way to be thinking... VP Gore is the man. he's our president. Dammit, that's just the way it's got to be. We just have to believe it, see it, breathe it, and let it happen.

If Gore won't come to the mountain, then the mountain will come to Gore.
Excellent idea. Let's get to work on it.

How do we get started?

[SensibleAmerican]

It's ironical and laughable that the same Nader-herd that screwed Gore in 2000 are now begging him to run in 2008!

As for your "dream" it IS an impossible dream! Al Gore has moved on and Hillary is inevitable. I am sure there will more wide-eyed posts like this and a lot of people will sigh and raise empty rhetoric. It is the reality though that we should be concerned with ... the Hillary as our 44th President REALITY!!!

[ofmelabes]

I have been trying to promote a deadlocked convention nominating Gore for the last 2 years. I disagree with Gore making a special deal with any of the candidates -- he should praise them all, and if it ever comes to him making a non-Shermanesque statement, he should mention the candidates as people he would trust to help run his administration if he were to be the 2008 Democratic candidate and win the election. In the meantime he should speak out not just on the climate issue -- on that he should use mainly the stuff (and people) with whom he shared the prize -- I am sure they are not happy with the British judge who cast aspersions on their scientific work, and who has been quoted as authority in the media. On the other hand he should broaden the discussion to the need to discuss the important issues as planetary issues -- he is the only political leader with a planetary view rather than a "national interest" view. It is very important that in the next year he do campus talks pointing out something that business, science, medicine, etc, know well -- the things that most affect us individually are planetary: world trade, pollution, epidemics, health standards, the internet, etc. He has to bring back the vision of FDR and Wendell Willkie (the 1940 Republican presidential candidate who wrote "ONE WORLD") for the post WWII world. It nis not in the interest of the American people, or any people, to control the world and decide everything -- it is a common need and a common effort. As Schevernadze said to Gorbachev in 1998: "We don't have to live like this," leading to the dissolution of the Warsaw pact as people were allowed their freedom.

[SamThornton]

If all the Democratic candidates happened to be on the same bus tour of Hoover Dam and the bus accidentally fell into Lake Mead, Mr. Gore might reconsider tossing his hat in the ring. If there were no survivors.

Sometimes, No means No.

[Doofus]

Would Al condescend to run? (We dare you, Al.)

Bob Herbert in today's NY Times...

... 'Al Gore is a serious man confronted by a political system that is not open to a serious exploration of important, complex issues. He knows it.

"What politics has become," he said, with a laugh and a tinge of regret, "requires a level of tolerance for triviality and artifice and nonsense that I have found in short supply."'

[OtayPanky]

In both parties, the nomination process has been restructured to create a "domino effect" that would prevent a convention free-for-all.

These days, conventions are for coronation of THE ONE, not nomination of one among several contenders.

Not even close, Miles. Sorry.

[WorkingClass]

If Gore wants to be president all he has to do is say so. He could run independent and win. Hillary - Rudy - Al. Which one would you pick?

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

Love it. Conventions haven't been exciting in a while.

Cogito, erGO GORE !!!

Re-elect Al Gore in 2008.

[LizM]

This is sounding a lot like political desperation! I know - I go there often.

[Doofus]

Speaking of which...

Kucinich/Paul - Tag Team 2008 - Because We Are That Desperate.

[jmpurser]

And at the end of all this the Democrats will have a presidential nominee who thought LIEBERMAN would make a good running mate.

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

And at the beginning of all this, the country had a president who ran as a "uniter."

Times change.

Some people change with them.

[MrLion]

I'd love to see an open convention, but the chances of it happening are close to absolute zero. If the primaries prove inconclusive, the nominee will be chosen well in advance of the convention by the surviving candidates and party leaders: the "smoke-filled room" of old, but without the smoke--or the room.

Nowadays, delegates at national conventions have a function somewhere between a game-show audience and a Greek chorus. About the only thing they get to decide is whether to have Bud or Bud Light at the hospitality suites.

[peterg76]

Work out what votes it will take and start a campaign to have the primaries turn out that way.

[seawolf77]

A brilliant strategy, one I am sure Clinton and Edwards have discussed with him. Either would be tremendous choices as VP, and would make the strategic blunder of picking Elmer Fudd fade to distant memory. Even Richardson I think, for the latino angle . Gore has got to stop thinking goodly and straight. He's got to start thinking just like this. He's got to play to win.

[gropengrasp]

Yes! Gore could win, but he needs to show more attitude and less the apologetic mr. niceguy.I remember feeling my heart sink and run out onto the floor when he debated one of the stupidest people in the country on national TV. It was as if he was more interested in showing what a nice guy he was than in convincing the country that he would be a better president. And then of course his lack of response when the election was stolen from him...
He would do well to work with a very good public speaking coach, and do his homework.
He now has great and well deserved respect for his work on climate change, but without a sense of self confidence that won't be enough to make them want to climb on board.
And, he's the only democrat worth listening to, let alone voting for.