If You Want To Know Who'll Be The Next President, Watch The Debate With The Sound Off

If you recorded the Presidential debate and haven't erased it, try watching for 5 or 10 minutes with the sound off and you'll have few doubts that Barack Obama will be the next President. This is particularly true if you recorded CNN, which split the screen for most of the debate so you can see the reactions of one candidate when the other candidate is speaking.

John McCain's face never stops moving. He twitches, blinks incessantly, grimaces, glares, and puts on a fake grin that's truly creepy. He seems to have two modes: In one, he looks like an unruly high school student who's been told to sit in the corner and be quiet. In another, he looks like a frighteningly angry old man, as though he's struggling against his own impulse to leap across the table and punch out Senator Obama. He runs the gamut from rebellious teenager to grumpy old man without ever pausing at the stage of mature adult.

Barack Obama, in contrast, is still and calm. He appears to be listening intently, occasionally nodding, a few times shaking his head when McCain attacks him, other times breaking into a knowing grin. The younger man is the one who appears to be the mature grown up whom you can count on.

Television is a close-up medium and can sometimes be a devastatingly accurate portrayer of character and personality. With the sound off, McCain appears nervous and erratic and shows a barely concealed rage. Obama appears focused, thoughtful, and steady. That pretty well sums up the differences between them in real life.

When Kennedy and Nixon debated, it was reported that radio listeners thought Nixon won and TV viewers thought Kennedy won. TV is no friendlier to McCain than it was to Nixon.

Obama comes off as the cool and collected one whom you want answering the phone at 3 AM, whether the call is about a financial meltdown or an international crisis.

On May 6th, just 5 weeks before his death, Tim Russert watched the results of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries come in and declared, "We now know who the Democratic nominee's going to be [Barack Obama] and no one's going to dispute it." If he were still alive and watched the third Presidential debate, particularly with the sound off, I think he would say, "We now know who the next President of the United States is going to be and no one's going to dispute it--Barack Obama."

UPDATE: I don't mean to imply that the liklihood of an Obama victory should make Obama supporters complacent. While unlikely, there's always the chance of an "October surprise". Republicans will do all they can to suppress the vote in Democratic areas. Moreover, it's important that Obama not only win, but win big, and that he bring a close-to fillibuster-proof Senate on his coattails so that he has a mandate to enact significant change. So don't let up until the last vote is counted--contribute, volunteer, canvass, make phone calls, visit your grandparents who might still be scared of Obama.

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Comments

[kat1park]

Vote early NC! We are going to win this election this time. No tricks! No October Surprises! Stand firm and don't let lies and deceit change your mind at the last minute. This election is too important. America's future is too important for us to get distracted. Obama/Biden 08

[sociocanuck]

I was following the message and the medium. Obama scored on both counts.

[odyssey58]

I was going to listen to the debate on the radio but I realized that I needed to see it. TV is much more revealing of character (or lack of it as we saw in jmc).

[mmgbizgirl]

Perfection!

I'm happy someone mentioned it. Body language is more than half of our language and mccain clearly tells anyone who is paying attention that he is a narcissist with little regard for what others want or need. The only thing I respect about a man of this kind is that he has warned us, (in no uncertain terms) that he's about to F - - - us royally.

Don't ignore your instincts when it comes to body language. mccain's is clear.

[daddy-0]

Hmmm, that explains a lot! If you do not care what is being said, Obama is much more attractive. But when I listen I get an awful feeling this is a guy who will say anything to get elected, disavow anyone for the sake of expediency, another old time Chicago machine politician. I listen to him speak and I think of a line from Charles Krauthammer; "By the time he's finished, Obama will have made the Clintons look scrupulous".

[lakat]

You say that despite no one in Obama's past ever saying a negative thing about him and in fact getting positive feedback from many. He has been married to one woman without scandal while McCain has shown himself to be unfaithful and callous. (Nancy Reagan won't speak to him and Ross Perot only says bad things about McCain) There is evidence that McCain has been unscrupulous more than once in his 26 years in the Senate, for instance The Keating Five. Don't say he was innocent, he simply got away with bad behavior and judgement because of his family ties, just like another guy we know (White House resident). He wasn't censured but he was reprimanded by the Senate. He should have been censured.

I think you may have those thoughts because Obama is of dusky hue. It is sad but true that many seemingly intelligent people cannot find it in themselves to see the good in Obama because of his genes. To paraphrase Obama, 'Your post says more about you than it does about him.'

[k6007]

I also find it almost imperceptibly clever, how O has rendered Mc an employee by addressing him as 'john', while answering to sen. o ba ma.

[knowBuddhaU]

I love it! Thanks.

Makes you wonder, to what audiences is he mugging? Is that the ol' class clown, then the stern father?

Is he so accustomed to being able to blow off accusations, investigations, plane wrecks, and full-scale catastrophes, thanks to his connections, that he's all but stage-whispering to his Friends in High Places?

Like both Bushes, neither of whom ever met a sentence they couldn't mangle beyond recognition, is John McCain's train-wreck grammar a tell-tale glitch in the Matrix?

[YankeeCanuck]

Thank you, Mr. Mogulescu. You speak with reason. Sadly, I remember the Kerry/Bush debate giving us the same impression. Turn down the sound-- which one is the President? Kerry!
Friends in Canada and Europe called to say just that--"Kerry is the President."
Many Americans either feared or were not ready for the sort of cosmopolitanism it would take to see our leaders in that light.One can only hope that the last 8 years have changed some minds. Sadly, most of our media delivers reporting thin on analysis and bloated with polemic.

[mergina]

Now THAT would be painful.

[clevelandchick]

I kept imagining McCain at a summit meeting with several other world leaders and one or two say something he doesn't like...would have have a trap door beneath their chair and drop them in a pool of sharks like Dr. Evil? I half expected him to call Obama 'insolent'.

[knowBuddhaU]

Oh no you dih'nt!

The tap doors and other diabolical machinery would all be emplazoned "Haliburton," and promoted in ads sponsored by Goldman Sachs. AIG will sell more "trap-door" policies than ever.

Yes, and Cheney would be No. 2, Henchman in Chief, right? And we'd need a mad scientist type to portray APA's role in developing Bush's torture regime.

Can anyone take it from here?

[Miamisecretagent]

In all three debates, McCain did pretty well at the beginning, then towards the end, with no provocation from Obama, started getting antsy and p-o'd. It seems to me that that's when the real McCain started showing through his rehearsed veneer of reasonableness. I think in part that's what people are responding to when they say Obama won the debates--they're voting for the man who could hold himself together for 90 minutes in the same room with someone who disagreed with him. Considering that being president means being able to keep steady and focused when lots of people and events are challenging you or even wilfulling provoking you, I think these debates were a mini-audition for presidential temperament.

[QM2SS]

One might just as well have watched with the sound off. No new revelations introduced this time, either. I find it hard to believe that after 3 "debates" the subject of illegal immigration has yet to be brought to the table. Considering the devastating economic consequences in many states (particularly in my state) as a result of the burden of close to 20 million undocumented aliens in the country, to ignore this issue is both arrogant an deceptive. I'm not exactly sure why this particularly divisive subject has not been brought to the forefront considering how much attention it got not that long ago. Anyone know?

[Wonder11]

Thank You for your query Mr. Tancredo.

[Wonder11]

Seriously, because given the light of recent events it's pretty low on the priority list. The xenophobe constituency just don't get a fair shake anymore. LOL

[joan az]

I've lived in AZ for 40 years. McCain's lived here as long. It's not an issue that all Americans can relate to because it's not in their backyards. Drop houses in AZ are on the rise. There are random shootings in Phoenix daily. Unless people feel the effect every day, it's hard for them to realize that should be a national priority. The information provided to Bush prior to 9/11 that could have prevented 9/11 came from AZ and was not taken seriously. Does that answer your question?

[IndieChick]

It wasnt addressed because McCain spent most of the alotted time to bashing Obama and talking about negative ads. McCain wasted everyone's time.

[scooperss]

Simple. BOTH mccain and obama want to give the illegals amnesty.

[athenasword]

I can easily imagine that Tim is there "on the other side".... doing everything he can to make this election turn out for the best. On one hand, I wish he could be there on election night, yet I know he is here in spirit, watching and guiding as best he can, with his white board still handy!

His genuine excitement and joy on election night -when Barack wins- is what I will miss most.

[Lagniappe]

I did what I always do when commercials come on,I muted the debate-but had close captioning on to read the dialog.McCain is incapable of seeing the world and himself through the lens of reality. His distorted perceptions of himself and the world came through clearly for all to see-except, perhaps McCain ,himself. (And,btw, it was an act of Christian kindness toward McCain that Obama declined the 10 Town Hall meetings.)

[jennyjen]

Just too humiliating to think about him meeting with world leaders on our behald acting like that.