Iowa: "The Status Quo Lost, Change Won"

That's how John Edwards summed it up. And although he came in second on the Democratic side, it's the message of the Iowa caucuses.

The biggest story out of Iowa is that nearly twice as many people turned out for the Democratic caucuses as turned out for the Republican caucuses (approximately 227,000 to 114,000). In effect, in winning the Democratic caucuses with 37%, Barack Obama received more than twice as many votes as Mike Huckabee received in winning the Republican caucuses. In fact, each of the three top Democrats--Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton--received substantially more votes than Mike Huckabee. That in an historically swing state which went for Al Gore by 4,000 votes in 2000 and for George W. Bush by 10,000 votes in 2004. This augers well for Democrats expanding their base, picking up the majority of independents, winning the Presidency, and increasing their margins in Congress in the fall.

On both the Democratic and Republican side, the candidates representing the status quo in Washington lost badly and the candidates challenging that status quo won. It is almost shocking that for all her money, all her backing by the establishment of the Democratic Party, and all of her organization, Hillary Clinton couldn't even muster 30% of the Democratic vote in Iowa. 67% of the Democratic vote went to two candidates, Barack Obama and John Edwards who, each in his own way, challenged the establishment that has dominated the beltway Democratic Party.

On the Republican side, between Mike Huckabee's 34% and Ron Paul's 10%, 44% of the Republican votes went to candidates who are hated by the power brokers of the Republican Party. The Club for Growth--the ideological core of the corporate wing of the Republican Party--spent over $1,000,000 to try to defeat Huckabee in Iowa, almost as much as Huckabee spent on his entire campaign. Huckabee, who criticized Bush's bunker-like foreign policy, and Paul, who ran on an anti-Iraq war platform, both challenged the national security wing of the Republican Party. Mitt Romney, who created himself as the candidate designed to unify the old Reagan/Bush Republican coalition of social conservatives, economic conservatives, and national security conservatives mustered only 25% of the Republican vote. What we may be witnessing in Iowa is dissolution of Republican coalition which has dominated American politics since 1980.

Iowa did not of course finally determine either the Democratic or Republican nominee. Hillary Clinton has ample cash, a strong organization, and incredible determination and could stage a comeback, although it's hard to see her winning the Democratic nomination if she fails to win New Hampshire. It's unlikely that Huckabee will ultimately win the Republican nomination, although it seems as though none of the other Republican candidates engender much enthusiasm from the historic Republican base.

It does seem clear however, that powerful new forces are running through American politics, and 2008 could represent a transformational election.

Comments

[JohnCitizen]

CONGRATULATIONS TO IOWA AGAIN!

America should congratulate Iowans for doing their duty again, that is, picking the worst possible Democratic candidate, as they have done frequently including John Kerry in 2004. Part of the problem is the crazy Iowa caucus system, but the biggest factor is allowing Republicans to help pick the Democrat who they think is easiest to defeat. Someday, just maybe, America will have a primary system where the real swing states (right now FLORIDA and OHIO) decide who the candidate is? Of course, that would be logical, meaningful and ridiculous. Now instead, we get the government we deserve!

[Crowhaul]

It's a good thing that Obama won.

However, one must wonder as to why he receives even more money than Hillary from Big Pharma/Insurance. These are the very people we are fighting against, and he is apparently on their payroll.

[xrmychick]

You know, the Iowa Deomocratic caucus is not a harbinger of anything other than a bunch of people getting together for a couple of hours for snacks and juice. You've got the 3 top contenders and... the other guys. The other guys don't hit the magic numbers in their precincts, so their delegates get to either go home, swap candidates or hang out in the undecided camp. If their chosen candidate asks their caucus goers to...say...swap to Obama, how reflective, really, ARE those numbers? Not too, I'm thinkin'. I SPIT on the Iowa caucus! PTOO!!

[Zibblu]

Real change would have been Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich... sorry this doesn't cut the mustard.

[ClaudiaJean]

Is it about time there was a presidential candidate of African-American descent? hell yes.
Is it about time there was a presidential candidate who is female. hell yes.
Is the fact that a candidate is black or female reason NOT to vote for them. absolutely not.
Is the fact that a candidate IS black or IS female reason to support them?
For many, yes. Style over substance. The chance to make history and being swept up in the "look how far we've come" fanfare clouds judgement.
I believe neither Obama or Clinton were the best qualified and talented individuals running for the candidacy. That was Joe Biden.
And Iowa's low turnout to support him and his subsequent bowing out from the race has denied me the opportunity to support him. MY choices are diminished. MY voice is weakened.

[oldpotsmuggler]

"227,000 to 114,000". No one wants what the Republicans are selling except other Republicans. In a Primary season that is unrivaled on both sides, only the Democrats are able to create excitement.

Is there any reason to believe that this is not, in fact, the pattern that will carry through to November? I think not. If people are going to be as energized as appears to be the case, we will be looking at a victory of historic proportions.

That being said, and to keep matters in perspective I read one statistic that says that 30% of first timers for the Dems came down behind Hillary. Apparently people are going to come out in record numbers to repudiate this administration, and it's not really going to make a world of difference who carries the Democratic Party banner. (Boy do I wish I could spend this morning listening to Limbaugh. He's going to have to spin his fat ass off to turn this into anything but an unmitigated disaster.)

[MR]

Its not shocking. Its how Democrats lose elections and how they lost in 2000 and 2004. Her message of experience which they spent hours and hours around a table discussing and analyzing until they all felt proud of themselves was about as dumb a message and selling point you could come up with. Experience has never won a Presidential election and its probably the lowest thing of value there is. Bush has more experience being President than all the candidates combined.Think he could get re-elected based on "experience"?

[sonofloud]

How does the fact that a sitting US Senator won the Iowa caucus bring change? LOL
Real change will never come from inside the system.
The French had it right!!!

[jmpurser]

Personally I think "Don't do something stupid" won but change is in dead heat with "Okay, it's stupid but I know the name".

[unchainthedogs]

Edwards has the policies, guts, passion and wherewithall to do the job and get things changed. He will get it done. It's not a dream. As a lower end middle class small business owner, Edwards speaks for me. Edwards will fight for me. Obama does not. I don't see a solid foundation on policies, nor boldness, nor guts with Obama, Edwards will get the job done. He will work for me and all of you who make less than $100K annually. He will work to erradicate the pick pocketing of Americans by EXXON/Mobil, Halliburton, Insurance Companies, and all the other Big Businesses in this Country. He will work to keep jobs here instead of overseas. I believe him when he speaks. I don't think there's much underneath the clothes of Obama. Not to say he isn't intelligent and a great deliverer of words....just not alot of "how to know how" in the action category.

Run John Run.

[January]

Making a big deal against Clinton of the Iowa results shows not all the hogwash is found on Iowa's farms. Why not read the results as: the Demos have so many outstanding candidates, primaries are close races?

Who makes much of an 8-point spread in polls? That's just within the margin of error.

[Spoons]

If Obama wins, what with his smoke and mirrors non-reform of health care and all, I fear I will be literally a dead person, and others will die right along with me. As small business owners we can't make it to 65 without real health care reform....and Obama's false facade of hope scares me to death. Please help me expose his health care plan for the fake that it is, whenever and wherever possible? Lives are literally at stake here (ours).

Specifically, his plan says "health insurers would have to JUSTIFY large premium differences" (with friends like this who needs enemies?). Other legislation he sponsored and loves to talk about says the rest of us will
have access to the same health care plan as he and Congress have "except for the way (we) are rated" (sigh). He pretends his loopholes for insurers (all they need is an inch and they will take a mile) don't exist, and neglects to
mention that federal plans generally cost more than the $12,100/year national average. Obama's Democratic buddies here in Illinois have sold We the People down to tubes to the Moneyed Interests on health care (and energy) too, and he HUGS them(!). He is one of them, and they represent everything that is wrong with the Democratic Party.

Hillary would be just as bad if not worse. Her plan says "insurers would be prohibited from charging 'large' premium differences based on 'modified' community rating" (whatever that means, but I'm sure the insurers understand
it's all they need). Edwards is our only hope, because he's the only electable person who "gets" what needs to be done, and I'm going to do everything I can to try to help get him elected (save our lives and country). We need and will take all of the help we can get.

[Purple Girl]

WE are no longer in the catatonic state after 9/11. We actually have not been in Shock for the last few years.
"Experience"= Culpability
This Corporate/Religous fanatism agenda has been going on for 3 decades. so those who've been around during this time have been complicite with the agenda or incompetent to work as a representatiove of the citizens of this country.
I'm not set on Obama, or any candidate yet, But I'm glad to see the status Quo bit it.
This year is going to be interesting.
I predict many Surprises!
Hopefully one that comes 'out of nowhere'

[jackpinesavage]

Let's hope that this desire for change translates to the Congressional elections as well. It sure would be nice to see some independent candidates for House seats, they might actually have a chance this year.

[beef33]

I would agree. You know what else is interesting? This idea that Obama and Clinton both were chiding Edwards for doing too much yelling.??? However, it is time to yell. It is time to be heard. This idea of being slick and smooth, bi partisanship go slow type of wasington elite approach has gotten old for the middle class in this country. People are upset at how much gas is, credit card fraud, mortgage mess, iraq war profiteering, etc. etc. Also the fact that the mainstream corporate owned media was trying to marginalize Edwards helped him. Plus this idea that the likes of Clinton and Obama have gotten all this money does not sit well. Edwards is getting not as much money but many small donations from all different types of people. Like Bobby Kennedy's insurgent campaign in 68 this is about taking on the status quo. Merging all sorts of classes and types of people. ONly the beginning as all Edwards needs is 25% of the vote in NH, he will win South Carolina then the fight will be on.