August 21, 2008: The Day John McCain's Campaign Died

No, unfortunately, I don't think that John McCain's campaign is really over. But there has been an amazing confluence of events in the last 24 hours that have undermined every key basis of McCain's campaign, so much so that it is hard to see how anyone who is not an extreme right-wing Republican could even consider voting for him. If McCain survives the last 24 hours, I'm not sure what it will take to stop him. You start to wonder if he could drop his pants in the middle of a town hall and still suffer no consequences.

Just think, in the last 24 hours:

Iraq
McCain has made Iraq and national security the center of his campaign. He has unabashedly flaunted his support of the war in Iraq, and he has repeatedly suggested that Barack Obama does not have the judgment necessary to be president because, among other things, he supports timetables for the withdrawal of American troops from the country. He has accused Obama of trying to "legislate" defeat.

Well, first, in July, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said that a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq was necessary, seriously undermining the whole Bush-McCain strategy for staying in Iraq. McCain brushed off Maliki's remarks as the Iraqi prime minister just playing politics, not expressing his true beliefs.

But now McCain's biggest nightmare has come true. Today we find out that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice appeared with the Iraqi foreign minister to announce that the two countries have agreed that a timetable should be set for the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

McCain now stands alone. After all his criticisms of Obama's judgment on this issue, the Iraqis and even the Bush administration have now been forced to concede that a timetable for withdrawal is necessary (essentially adopting Obama's long-held position). McCain's criticisms have blown up in his face. Anyone paying attention would have to laugh off his claims now that his judgment on Iraq is superior to Obama's (especially considering that Obama opposed the war, while McCain told Americans it would be an easy victory, we would be greeted as liberators, and we would only be faced with a short engagement).

Afghanistan
Throughout the campaign, Obama has hammered home the point that the real war on terror is based in Afghanistan, and that more troops were needed there to secure the country. In July, McCain mocked Obama's position, calling him naive and premature. Again, McCain used Obama's plan as an example of his lack of judgment.

McCain also had maintained that the war in Iraq was not affecting the ability of the U.S. to send a sufficient amount of troops to Afghanistan, something that was directly contradicted in early July by Michael G. Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, when he said, "I don't have troops I can reach for, brigades I can reach, to send into Afghanistan until I have a reduced requirement in Iraq. Afghanistan has been and remains an economy-of-force campaign, which by definition means we need more forces there."

Mullen's repudiation of McCain's position didn't knock him off his high horse, but yesterday's actions by the Pentagon sealed McCain's fate on this issue. The military announced (quietly, with little media coverage) that 11,000 soldiers would be sent to Afghanistan.

Once again, Obama took a position, McCain mocked him and claimed it showed bad judgment, and then, ultimately, Obama's stance was proven to be correct and was adopted. What can McCain say now?

How Many Houses?
Moving from the substantively important to America's obsession with silliness, when John Kerry was photographed windsurfing during the 2004 campaign, he cemented his image with voters of being an upper-class elitist, out of touch with the day-to-day lives of the common folks. The judgment wasn't based on policies, since Kerry's positions were unquestionably more in tune with those of the average blue collar worker than the stands taken by George W. Bush. But in our image-is-everything culture, the photo resonated with many voters, confirming that Kerry was not one of them. (The need for a candidate to be "average" is insane, but that's a discussion for a different article.)

Yesterday, McCain had his windsurfing moment. When asked how many houses he and his wife owned, McCain said he didn't know and would have to check with his staffers. After the McCain campaign said the answer was at least four, Obama later happily pointed out that, in fact, the McCains had seven homes. If McCain's remark last week at Rick Warren's values forum about $5 million being the threshold for being "rich" (watch for yourself here) didn't sink the idea of McCain as a "man of the people," then not knowing how many houses he owns should put McCain's regular guy status over the edge. Maybe once and for all people will realize that McCain is a man of extreme wealth. To borrow the famous Seinfeld phrase, "not that there's anything wrong with it," but being rich is not the image the McCain campaign likes to project for its candidate.

Can you imagine if Obama ever said he didn't know how many homes he owned? He would be done. This should be McCain's windsurfing moment. Let's see if the media and the public treat McCain the way they treated Kerry.

The Draft
Yesterday, a woman in a town hall meeting in New Mexico, after a long list of thoughts, said that she didn't see a way to go after Osama bin Laden without reinstating the draft. McCain responded by saying, "I don't disagree with anything you said." (Watch for yourself here.)

Clearly, such a policy would not be popular with a huge percentage of young people and parents. Maybe McCain really is in favor of bringing back the draft, and maybe he is not. If he's called on it, I'm sure he'll try to dodge the issue and deny that he even said it (after all, he never suffers consequences for his lies, so why should he stop?).

But for a presidential candidate to say that he "doesn't disagree" with reinstating the draft is a major gaffe. Again, if Obama made such a statement, it would be all but game over for his campaign. Let's see if McCain survives it.

All and all, not a banner day for McCain's ambitions (yes, he has them) for the White House.

There is no doubt that McCain's candidacy has been on an upswing, and recent Rasmussen polls have shown him gaining in key battleground states like New Hampshire. But by every measurement, the last 24 hours should be devastating to the McCain campaign. He has been undermined and proven wrong (and worse, Obama has been proven correct) on his bedrock issue of national security, specifically in Iraq and Afghanistan; he has exposed himself to the electorate as wealthy and out of touch; and he has advocated for, of all things, reinstating the draft. If McCain survives the last day, I fear it means that voters, for whatever reason, don't want to hear the truth about John McCain.

Is today the day that McCain's campaign dies? It should be. Let's see if it is.

Comments

[RRonin]

FINALLY someone has picked up on McCain's bringing back the draft. I always suspected a President McCain was likely to bring back the draft. If it was good enough for HIS generation, it should be good enough for these darned kids these days, consarn it! As a war hero and ex-POW, he has the standing to demand it of them. Not that it would be well received, but he's cantankerous enough (especially if he keeps his promise to serve a single term) to do it and hang the consequences. Years ago, Charlie Daniels recorded a song entilted "Still in Saigon", about a vet who couldn't get over his wartime trauma. It seems that, in a way, McCain is "Still in Hanoi." Still fighting the Viet Nam war and the Cold War.

[Avembe]

Once again will anybody tell me exactly how many wars did Mc...CAIN actually won?
And what's the use of the success of the surge?
I mean that we invaded Iraq (i still can't figure who the enemies were), it became a totally mess(thanks to us) now there's the surge supposed to work(we lost 4100 soldiers,not to mention that the Iraqis lost 100 000 people), we spent 600 000 000 000...and now...what?
The iraqi government has 79 billions of dollars surplus and we are still paying with our taxes 48 billion to rebuilding...
Come on Guyz something's going realy REALLY WRONG!!!
Mc CAIN has NEVER ,NEVER talked about the cost only Obama does...
Meaning Mc CAIN definitely doesn't care about balancing the budget...by the way , why would he
ENOUGH is ENOUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mamae]

YES SEN. MCCAIN THAT WAS YOUR PRESIDENT THAT JUST THREW YOU UNDER THE BUS.

[roshni]

We wish - there is still a long road ahead.
Obama needs to hammer on the draft issue.

[SensibleAmerican]

Such an article can be summarized in 2 words: "wishful thinking"! Or 3 words" grasping onto straws"! But the best cliche' would be the "audacity of hope"!!!

[wdw101]

the draft issue? cool bring back the draft.........i'm ok with that

[LilyMaskew]

It is clear that Obama is the better man, but the media wants to make this election SEEM like a real horse race. They emphasize anything Obama says or does that might be misconstrued, and they de-emphasize any gaffs from the McCain camp. They'll get better ratings for their shows and better ratings equals more money for them. There are other reasons that Obama isn't clearly ahead, as well, but the media can spread its "blanket" over every part of this campaign.

[hopefulinpa]

McCain will just adopt the new policies and claim that is what he said all along. That's face it he's done it before and no one calls him on it.

[scooperss]

Yep like telling the VFW it was HIS GI Bill.

[cct84]

A counter view on Afghanistan from the rational opposition:

Your assertion that McCain opposed sending more troops to Afghanistan is fallacious. What McCain opposed was Obama's plan to summarily withdraw from Iraq, without regard for the conditions on the ground. In McCain's own words from the article you site "...[Obama] is speaking today about his plans for Iraq and Afghanistan before he has even left, before he has talked to Gen. Petraeus, before he has seen the progress in Iraq and before he has set foot in Afghanistan for the first time." In other words, before you start issuing orders, it helps to do your homework first. Iraq has been the primary focus precisely because AQ has made it their central front in the war. Now that we've killed most of their leadership and squeezed them out of areas where they previously had free reign (thanks to the surge) AQ is reconsolidating along the Afghanista­n/Pakistan border--hence the increase in violence. We have not lost sight of who the enemy is, on the contrary, the growing competence and capability of the Iraqi military is allowing us to draw down and re-apportion our forces to where they are needed most.

The assumption behind your position is that had we not gone into Iraq, we would have defeated AQ by now--not true. The stumbling block to defeating AQ is not a lack of troops, it is access to Pakistan.

[youngdem23]

If you think the surge was so great, why don't you do some real research and watch 'Baghdad High'
Read this while you're at it!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/31/AR2008073101847.html

[Mitchell Bard - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks for your comment, cct84, but I respectfully disagree. McCain has been firmly behind the Bush policy, as articulated by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that "In Afghanistan, we do what we can. In Iraq, we do what we must." (you can see for yourself here: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18414699)

The McCain-Bush view of the world is that Iraq takes precedence over Afghanistan. Mullan admitted we don't have the troops we need in Afghanistan because they are tied up in Iraq.

Obama's view was that Iraq was the wrong war at the wrong time, and as a result of being bogged down in Iraq, the Taliban was allowed to reconstitute and gain power. Yes, of course, Pakistan is a problem, but it is not the only problem. Again, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs has said we need more troops there.

The events of this week (the sending of more troops) totally justifies Obama's position and destroys the Bush-McCain view of Afghanistan.

[jsgaetano]

I've always said that if the reich-wingers truly, honestly believed that we were in an epic struggle for civilization and truth justice and apple pie... they would, obviously, be calling for a draft and getting as many feets in boots and hands on guns as they could.

Because obviously, does one REALLY wage a war where their country (and the very soul of the universe itself!!!) is at stake... but then say "meh... we can handle this with Clinton's broken military (Bush/Cheney's claim back in 1999) and all the Blackwater Mercenaries we can fiscally conservatively borrow money from China to pay for?

It's perfectly obvious to anyone with at a brain that the Bushites never beleieved a word of their own rhetoric. The problem, however, has always been the braindead conservatives, and the uninformed voters. Both of which the droning rhetoric of the Bushites is custom tailored to appeal to.

That's where Democrats always fail- they do not realize they need to talk down to people. The fact that they still believe there is any such thing as an "undecided" voter reveals that quite plainly.

[Mitchell Bard - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks for the comment, jsgaetano.

To some extent, the war on terror is a boondoggle to take away our rights and shift money to corporations (Naomi Klein's dead-on book Shock Doctrine talks about this).

[SFSierra]

Mitchell, I think you're absolutely correct in your analysis. The worst problem for Democrats is to not stay relentlessly focused on these issues. I do not believe McCain is inevitable. If the Democrats are disciplined with the message and have the right message--which you have articulated so well, McCain can be defeated. Because racism is still alive and well, it probably will not be a landslide for Obama, but it doesn't have to be.

In the end, it's all about who gets to the polls on election day. The organization with the most motivation and superior "get out the vote" effort will prevail. The Republicans are working over time to dispirit voters who want a change (and judging by some of the whining here and in response to other blogs, the Republicans are having some success). We can not afford to let them get away with it again, and it is within our control if we stay focused, motivated and get the job done.

[CaptainObvious]

But haven't you heard? He's a POW.

[youngdem23]

If this isn't enough for American voters to open their eyes, I don't know what is. If you have not yet taken a look at McCain's response on air (after being asked about the number of homes he owns), please do.
Also, please see McCains perspective, compared to an average American family, suffering from the dissolving housing market. http://beltwayblips.com/video/mccain_s_mansions/
This man clearly is not even cut out to manage his own personal life, LET ALONE a country. How many times will your "staffers" pull you out of a pridicament? That is not the first time he has resorted to his staffers finding an asnwer. Upon being asked about his view of birth control he said he wasn't sure, and would have his staffers get back them. Is this really the type of man you want leading you?
Please people, open up your eyes. Electing this man into a four year presidential term, is sure defeat for all of us. We may as well bat down the hatches if he is elected, because our livelihood as a thriving country is going to about-face.

Sidenote: It is easy for me to find a video of Obama hitting McCain for having several homes, but difficult to find a video of McCain saying he will have his staffers respond.
Thomas Jefferson and friends must be rolling in their graves! Applause to the American people for not exercising their democratic rights and MSM for covering up the truth.

[Mitchell Bard - Huffpost Blogger]

You make an excellent point, youngdem23. McCain's responses to both the birth control and houses questions were inchorent.

[StealthisBlog]

Help us Obama-wan-Kenobi! You're our only HOPE!

[sharpstyx]

He will just throw out a sounbite to the effect of " well I thought...The way it works is... Did you know i was a POW.......It's condominiums where ........when I was a POW....POW...POW" And business will continue. Same old same old

[OlderBudWeiser]

Keith Olberman's guest states his war plan will bring the draft back. If you look on Mc website and see what his plans are for our troops...."his plan will bring on the draft...." At about 3 minutes into the clip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN0mReLiOx0

[oogabooga]

You have to wonder why this poor old guy has a following at all. Bush and Cheney are doing what Obama suggested so they can steal his thunder. But they're leaving pro-war McCain out there naked on the battlefield. War, POW and war-based patriotism stuff is all McCain has. What gives? Are the Neocons throwing in the towel? Why? They swiped enough money?