This is my last column of 2011, so I will make a few predictions for 2012, some which I hope come true and some which I hope don't.
U.S. Election: President Barack Obama will be re-elected. Each of his potential rivals is, in my opinion, fatally flawed. The most likely GOP nominee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, is a handsome version of that little plutocrat dude in a Monopoly game.
In a time of high unemployment, Americans will not elect a president who made much of his fortune closing down factories in the heartland. Happily, I do not believe Romney's religion will be an issue, one way or the other. By the way, Romney's choice for vice president will be Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).
Israel: Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will remain in power, spending 2012 girding himself for a newly energized Obama to put pressure on him in a second term. Unfortunately, I don't expect the pressure to come.
Having won re-election with the overwhelming support (75-80 percent) of American Jews, Obama will continue to accept the AIPAC-generated "conventional wisdom" that his Jewish support was a result of his "pro-Israel" policies and not because he was the liberal candidate. Because many of the big Democratic funders themselves adhere to the view that Jews primarily care about Israel, Obama is unlikely to challenge it. The only variable that might change Obama's policy would be a major act of stupidity by Netanyahu such as bombing Iran or, once again, trying to physically crush Gaza, as in 2008-9.
Public Opinion: The past year has seen Israel (more specifically, Netanyahu and the occupation) take a major hit with American public opinion. Prominent Jewish journalists like Tom Friedman, Joe Klein, and Peter Beinart (whose upcoming book will cause the "pro-Israel" establishment to quake in its boots) are all vocally condemning Netanyahu's policies, freeing many less-prominent voices to speak their minds.
In the days prior to the internet, the Israel lobby had the ability to shut down criticism of Israeli policies through calls to editors, bosses, advertisers, etc. Those days are almost over.
On the web, it is the Israeli government and not its critics who are on the defensive. This is partly related to the fact that the web is dominated by young people who, for the most part, have an even-handed view of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is particularly true of young Jews. The other reason that the web is the ultimate in free journalism is that it is infinitely harder to get bloggers fired and, even if they are, they will just keep blogging on another site. For the lobby, the internet is a curse.
Iran: There will be no attack on Iran by either Israel or the United States over the next 12 months. With both the military and intelligence establishments in both countries opposed to bombing Iran, an act viewed as both futile (in terms of ending Iran's nuclear program) and incredibly destabilizing to the entire world, a war just won't happen. Sanctions will continue producing significant suffering among the Iranian people while racketeers in the Iranian government and military apparatus make a killing.
The neocons, however, will intensify their clamoring for war, hoping the Iraq model can be repeated. In fact, virtually the entire crowd that helped lie us into Iraq is back in place, working tirelessly to convince the United States to bomb Iran.
AIPAC: The AIPAC conference (see video) in March will be proclaimed the "most successful" in the organization's history. Most of Congress will show up along with President Obama. The theme of the conference, as with every AIPAC conference for over a decade, will be about confronting Iran. A subsidiary theme will be that President Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are now just as evil as Hamas and that, accordingly, there is "no partner" with whom Israel can negotiate the "two-state solution" it theoretically (but not really) supports.
The conference will accomplish its main goal of conveying to Congress that supporting AIPAC on all matters related to the Middle East is the only way to stay out of political trouble. Following the conference, Congress will overwhelmingly pass one to three pieces of legislation (bashing Palestinians and calling for ever more action against Iran) drafted by AIPAC and circulated at the conference.
Arab Spring: In 2012, the Syrian government will collapse, a good thing, but the transition to something resembling democracy will be as bumpy as it is in Egypt. Also, as is the case with Egypt, any move by the new Syrian government to include "Islamists" will be condemned as frightfully threatening to the U.S. and Israel. Few will mention that the Christian right here (which essentially owns the GOP) and the Shas Party in Israel (a powerful component of Netanyahu's coalition) both seek, often successfully, to impose their bigoted and antediluvian religious dogma on their respective countries.
Israelis and Palestinians: Both peoples will be saddled with governments (in the case of the Palestinians, quasi-governments) that are almost exclusively concerned with preserving power. Both Israeli and Palestinian authorities will instigate and exploit hatred of the enemy in order to stay in power, and each will refuse to utter "magic word" formulations that would enable genuine negotiations to begin.
The Israeli center and left will confront a government that has as its chief goals settlement expansion and the eviction of Palestinians from their homes and neighborhoods. Meanwhile, Palestinians will suffer from continued ineptitude and corruption in Ramallah and from the refusal by the authorities in Gaza to call Netanyahu's bluff by accepting Israel's right to exist within the '67 lines, to form a unity government for the purpose of negotiating with Israel, and to totally and unequivocally reject violence against Israel in favor of energetic and nonviolent resistance.
Anti-Semitism: There will be no more or less anti-Semitism during the coming year, especially in the United States, where hardly any Jews experience it in a lifetime (I never have). But the phrase will be very big because, in the last few months, neoconservatives and other agitators for war with Iran and against any "concession" to Palestinians have begun condemning virtually all opponents of their policies as anti-Semites.
This, in itself, is not completely new. For decades non-Jewish critics of Israeli policies have been called anti-Semites in an effort, often successful, to shut them down. In 2011, however, the right stopped limiting use of the term "anti-Semite" to non-Jews and now freely uses it against Jews who despise the occupation, settlement activity, and right-wing Israeli policies.
They (we) used to be called "self-hating Jews" but since that didn't shut us up, the hope is that this will. Of course, it won't. Jews are used to being called bad names by bad people.
In conclusion, despite everything, I look forward to a better 2012. In December 2010, I didn't expect President Obama to end the Iraq war in 2011 or eliminate the monster who killed 3000 Americans. But these things happened. So, there is hope.
Whenever I doubt that the good guys are starting to win, I'll just re-read this column by Tom Friedman, or this piece by Joe Klein. A few years ago, neither would have been possible. Progressives are making a difference. As the great Tony Kushner wrote, "The world only spins forward."
Happy Holidays to all.
Follow MJ Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/mjayrosenberg
Will there finally elections for the Palestinian parliament and presidency both well over dued in the upcoming year?
If so who would win and more improtantly would the results be respected?
My
My predictions there will be no unity government before the elections but there would be a date for new elections now that Hamas for the first time since taking over has an acomplishment to show its voters with the release of Palestinian prisoners. They can finally have a chance in elections and would finally agree to hold them this year. They would still lose both elections claim there were frauds and refuse to let go of their hold over Gaza.
Like my American cousins prior to 1776 Israel has the final say on Palestinian destiny. Before democracy must come freedom
Free Palestine
America is homeland for the American people.
Mikey clearly isn't reading these fora :)
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/west-of-eden/top-holocaust-scholar-blasts-holocaust-abuse-by-u-s-israeli-politicians-1.401821
"Renowned Holocaust historian Deborah Lipstadt says that American and Israeli politicians who invoke the Holocaust for contemporary political purposes are engaging in “Holocaust abuse”, which is similar to “soft-core denial” of the Holocaust."
“When you take these terrible moments in our history, and you use it for contemporary purposes, in order to fulfill your political objectives, you mangle history, you trample on it,” she said.
That's right, you did!
Seems, you are talking about yourself
No. The web is the ultimate in lack of accountability. Bloggers may write whatever they please with no need for facts or citing sources, fundamental elements of real journalism which are ignored or outright abandoned on the web.
"...it is infinitely harder to get bloggers fired and, even if they are, they will just keep blogging on another site."
Exactly.
Iran will be attacked before the US election - it looks as if its already in play.
Various reports indicate Iran has now begun to weaponize a nuclear bomb and the dominoes are falling one by one as a result
Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Gulf countries have signaled the US that if they fail to deal with the Iranian situation they will go it alone.
Subsequently the US has now lined up with Israel in this regard.
Meanwhile Iraq is pushing for a sectarian war which will provide the distraction to enable Iran to gain a launching pad there against the Saudis and Israel
An attack against Iran could come in a few months or even a matter of weeks.
As a result, Israel will be attacked by Hezbollah rockets and possibly Syria as a way for Assad to remain in power but Hamas reined in by Turkey Egypt and Saudi Arabia will not participate.
Both will be defanged in a matter of days with Lebanon suffering a great deal of damage
Obama will win a second term by a landslide.
The Republicans will eat themselves alive in a drawn out primary season and few in America will trust the ship of state to any of them.
Netanyahu will remain in power given most Israelis during this heightened period in the region will choose not to change leadership.
Big changes coming in Turkey as a result of Erdogen's illness.
No. The web is the ultimate in lack of accountability, so bloggers may spew whatever nonsense they want without repercussions.
Case in point...
Yes, they will. This is exactly the type of politician the American voter (especially white working males, married women and veterans) have been voting for the past 30 years.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/report-u-s-anti-semitism-on-the-rise-amid-economic-downturn-1.393827
The whole point of prejudice is that it is unfounded hatred. Jews are suffering along with other Americans in this economy. Many lost their homes and are unemployed, like the rest of the religions.
clearly they are pissed off with neocons most of them are jews and media outlets like faux which gives them medium to vent their propaganda...blame the neocons and faux news...
Freenation, are both BDS and blockades collective punishment, or are neither? Don't run away and hide this time, take a stand.
- Obama will lose by a long margin. His domestic & international policies have weakened America.
- Questions about the authenticity of "Palestinian nationhood" will multiply within political & media circles. This is only to be expected, as the PA claimed recognition of a state based on that "nationhood". More & more people will exclaim "the emperor is naked".
- Iraq will plunge into a bloody civil war and so will Lebanon and Syria. Eventually, this will become a war between Iran & and an Arab coalition.
- A combined air-ground operation will take out all Iranian nuclear facilities. No country will claim responsibility.
- Turkey will leave NATO.
- Netanyahu will remain Israeli PM. However, if he falls and Livni becomes PM, MJ will have to switch from "Bibi" to "Tzipi". Nothing else will change in his diatribes, of course. Except claiming that AIPAC is not pro-Israel -- it's pro-Kadima.
Simple answer: on the domestic front, his administration was characterized by a mixture of inaction, hesitant action, ineffective action and wrong priorities, which all translated into the fact that USA lingers on the brink of economic crisis, jobs are not created, confidence (of both investors & consumers) is not restored -- everything is limping rather than marching. Even Gitmo wasn't closed, despite a presidential promise that it will. This administration is incapable of getting things done.
On the international front, Obama's policy of appeasement has been rejected lock, stock & barrel by the very people he wanted to appease. Iran spat in the President's "extended hand", causing him to fall back on sanctions -- an old Bush policy! Even that was clumsily done, see the Turkey/Brazil incident. The US Administration's position vis-a-vis the revolts in Iran and the Arab world was... what was it exactly?? (QED). "Leading from behind" is a nice re-branding of "following, 'coz I lack leadership". All this undermined the resolve of our friends & provided encouragement to America's enemies.
Mayhaps a new-years resolution would be for both sides to police their own extremists. It'd be nice if, once in a while, when I read people calling for mass killing of Palestinians to see them condemned by their own. Or when Palestinians are killed, it'd be great to not read a single post celebrating the fact.
I have not seen that even once
In July an Israeli sub sinks an Iranian boat precipitating the closure of the Straits. The US retaliates by trying to break the blockade leading to a short hot conflict and a cease-fire as both sides try to rearm.
The Eurozone crashes in April bringing down the Chinese economy and sending the US back into recession. Iraq disintegrates into civil war and Egypt starts massing troops on the Israeli border.