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Mohamed A. El-Erian

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Egypt's Election Need Not Be So Confusing

Posted: 05/25/2012 3:33 pm

We are starting to get some signals of the outcome of Egypt's historic presidential election, the first since the revolution... and many of the millions of Egyptians who bravely took to the streets last year to make it happen may be wondering whether they should be happy or concerned. The probable answer is both. And the challenge is to use the good to ensure progress in building the country's future in a transparent and accountable manner.

Preliminary indicators point to two candidates prevailing in this week's voting who differ significantly when it comes to background, experience, orientation and vision: Mohamed Morsi, the candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood, and Ahmed Shafiq, a former minister and prime minister under ousted President Hosni Mubarak.

Both benefited from solid on-the-ground organizations that virtually all their rivals lacked. And they are now poised for a face off in next month's decisive second round.

For a nation that has not tasted democracy for generations, this presidential election is remarkable. No wonder so many Egyptians have embraced it with enthusiasm and hope; and have done so in a generally peaceful, disciplined and well-mannered fashion.

The election speaks to a broader change that cannot, and will not, be taken away from Egyptians: their liberation from fear and repression, and the related conviction that they now "own" their country and finally have a meaningful say in its future well being, if not responsibility for it.

This change is visible in the surge of civic engagement, as well as the vibrant political discourse. It is also apparent in the heightened expectations which have led to periodic bouts of impatience and frustration.

If confirmed, the preliminary outcome of the presidential election may also raise legitimacy concerns in some circles -- not in the sense that the voting failed the "free and fair" test but, rather, that it took place on a playing field that is far from level. Indeed, while the presidential candidates had more time to prepare and campaign than those who stood for last year's parliamentary election, their initial conditions were nevertheless quite different.

These concerns are likely to translate in a rather noisy run up to next month's second round. They also suggest that the immediate aftermath may be far from smooth.

It is for all these reasons that many Egyptians may feel confused about what the election means for them and for their country. And they may even wonder whether to take to the streets again or, instead, stand back and give next month's newly-elected president a chance to govern. This decision could well be influenced by the country's delicate economic and financial situation.

Egypt needs to move decisively to address its mounting economic and financial challenges. This must be done in the context of successful efforts to improve social justice (the main theme of Morsi's campaign) and also restore law and order (Shafiq's election priority). And this needs to accompany a sustainable return of the armed forces to the barracks.

There is a time when every revolution reaches the critical pivot point when it should transition from dismantling the past to building a better future. It is almost always a very tricky and uncertain pivot, and it is hardly ever without risk.

Egypt is at this stage now. And the circumstances of the transition are particularly challenging.

The key for Egyptians is to use their newly-found freedom and voice to keep their elected leaders accountable, in both the legislative and executive branches of government. And, because of their brave and inspiring revolution, they have the ability to do so in a manner that, not so long ago, was deemed unthinkable.

The whole world has a stake in their success.

 
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01:11 PM on 05/28/2012
Let's see: the candidate of a party that shouldn't be running (the military), is running against the candidate of a party that said it wouldn't be running (the Muslim Brotherhood). That's not confusing?
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jonas caldwell
01:09 PM on 05/29/2012
Anyway, bluebeyond, its their country and it should be their choice.
01:43 PM on 05/29/2012
I'm just having trouble identifying the players without a program.
12:12 AM on 05/28/2012
Typical liberal blather about an event they refuse to look at objectively. America was one of the exceptions to the rule. Most revolutions bring more chaos and violence against the innocent while repressing dissent. We will see if Egyptians are more free after these elections. It certainly wasn't the case for the palestinians or the lebanese. In most cases the new regime is more oppressive and you have less freedom. The muslim brotherhood will probably win and then Israel will have to be more vigilant.
08:44 PM on 05/27/2012
Ive actually never thought it was all that confusing

moderate middle eastern democracy vs islamic theocracy
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lilipilicious
08:14 PM on 05/27/2012
s Gandhi said "Democracy must in essence mean the art and science of mobilizing the entire physical, economic and spiritual resources of all the various sections of the people. Democracy disciplined and enlightened is the finest thing in the world. A democracy prejudiced, ignorant, superstitious, will land itself in chaos and may be self-destroyed."

He also said that "In true democracy every person is taught to think for himself. it's not necessary that national workers should have political power. But it is necessary for the people to keep in constant touch with those whom they put in power."

How much of this does Egypt have that people call it the arab spring and democracy?
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Steamboater
Forget hope. Agitate.
04:25 PM on 05/27/2012
"The key for Egyptians is to use their newly-found freedom and voice to keep their elected leaders accountable..."

How is that possible when one wants to take you back to Mubarek and the other wants to have Egypt as an Islamic state. How quickly that Arab spring turned to an Arab winter.
04:04 PM on 05/27/2012
"The Muslim Brotherhood would apply Islamic sharia if it came to power, said leading Brotherhood figure Sobhi Saleh, adding that sharia protects non-Muslim citizens.

“Terms like civil or secular state are misleading,” he said. “Islamic sharia is the best system for Muslims and non-Muslims."

Saleh apologized for his earlier statements that the Muslim Brotherhood could not recognize liberals or communists as Muslims, and that he disapproved of Muslims marrying outside the group.

“The media incorrectly paraphrased my statements,” he said.

Translated from the Arabic Edition

http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/brotherhood-leader-we-shall-apply-islamic-sharia
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Ally Solver
Problem Solver Extraordinaire
01:48 PM on 05/27/2012
If Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood is elected, then disaster ahead. Oppression for all Egyptians. Possible civil war and increased danger of war with Israel.

If this happens, then Egyptians will get what they deserve.

Censorship is evil.
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lilipilicious
01:30 PM on 05/27/2012
What revolution? What has changed for the people in Egypt? Replacing one militant Islamic extremist with another is not revolution. And no, having one set of free elections doesnt make you a free or democratic society either. Being able to go cast a vote is not the end all, be all of democracy, nor will it bring about change or freedom. Democracy means more than just going to vote in fair elections/. There is an entire civil society that exists and has to exist: such as the right to freely assemble, petition the government, freedom of speech to allow for open discourse, grassroots, community organizing, public hearing on decisions pertaining to a community, non profits and other institutions, including a free press, to hold the government accountable. dvision of power.

As Gandhi said "Democracy must in essence mean the art and science of mobilizing the entire physical, economic and spiritual resources of all the various sections of the people. Democracy disciplined and enlightened is the finest thing in the world. A democracy prejudiced, ignorant, superstitious, will land itself in chaos and may be self-destroyed."

He also said that "In true democracy every person is taught to think for himself. it's not necessary that national workers should have political power. But it is necessary for the people to keep in constant touch with those whom they put in power."

How much of this does Egypt have that people call it the arab spring and democracy?
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William50
12:40 PM on 05/27/2012
This article is pointed to a nation and press that has little understanding of religious differences and race issues added to tribal boundaries and religious laws are shades of gray not iron bars. Egypt is being posed as a modern nation of middle class individuals who are educated to understand what their two choices will determine. As this is a lie in the USA it is also a lie in Egypt. A vote will be made and only then will we see a small glimpse into the future.
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GregCoyote
12:25 PM on 05/27/2012
Choice: join the world, or remain a country of backward nomads. My guess is that Islam will win out and they can kiss tourism goodbye. Can you fill an empty belly with Islam? Does Islam produce jobs for the majority of unemployed young people in the country? Does any religeon? As long a religeon is used to divide and control people, nothing will change. Add money to the equation and you have the US, where you have to be a Christian to be a real American.
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Eric Sandoval
Patriotism IS the last bastion of the scoundrel
11:20 AM on 05/27/2012
Jeeze Louise, is this guy even IN Egypt? I have friends there right now who are NOT happy about this at all and not optimistic one little bit. Even told me that there's a joke running around the country... The people of Egypt started a revolution to bring about the END to a corrupt system... And recently began the election process to bring about it's speedy return... They just wanted to clean under the rug so they could start new.
09:01 AM on 05/27/2012
For Egyptians, as well as all citizens of the world, to have and sustain good government they must have and sustain fair media, that conscience of nations that carries public opinion whose power can be, as should be, even overwhelming.
05:05 AM on 05/27/2012
Good Luck Egypt
02:05 AM on 05/27/2012
So in the first ever election, the choice is to bring back the old dictator's party or the birka-on-every-woman Muslem Brotherhood? How terribly ad.
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Firas Al-Atraqchi
Journalist, assoc professor, musician; sci-fi geek
01:28 AM on 05/27/2012
As far as I know, a revolution removes the tools of the regime it unseated. In Egypt, State media - the Soviet-style propaganda machine which spoke for the regime - is as intact as it was in 1952. The Ministry of Interior, which infused human rights abuses with brutally suppressing dissent and criticism, not only thrives but has not even began to consider reform let alone being disassembled and built from scratch. Revolution? No, not really ...
04:39 AM on 05/27/2012
You're right. This is managed theater and 11 candidates weren't allowed to run, but by what power?? That begs the ultimate question. Revolution it is not. But, it still might work if the old regime man losses and the MB is allowed to put their feet in the power for a few years. Then we're really see who has what power. No change this military will let go easily if the US demands they stay in power which appears to be the case.