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Mohamed A. El-Erian

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Facebook Highlights Importance of Public Markets

Posted: 08/17/2012 7:42 pm

Media sources reported on Friday that Facebook's founder, Mark Zuckerberg, had held staff meetings, including a company-wide gathering earlier this month, to counter sagging morale caused by the sharp drop in the company's stock.

In the process -- and I suspect inadvertently -- Mr. Zuckerberg reminded us of the important role that public markets play in today's complex global economy. And we should all be grateful to him given the extent to which some politicians have taken to generalized market bashing.

By going public in a highly-watched IPO last May, Facebook illustrated two important functions of public markets: First, they allow companies to raise capital that is both "permanent" and non-debt creating, thus mobilizing the best funding for productive expansion; and second, they provide a monetization mechanism for founding management and staff, thereby incentivizing and rewarding successful entrepreneurship and risk-taking.

But public markets do much more than that. They also act as an important reality check, supplying management and staff with information that may be critical for sustaining innovation and success.

Prior to going public, there seemed to be no limit to Facebook's mystique and charisma; and no end to its ability to meet needs that many did not even realize they had.

Facebook was the kind of disruptor that does not come around very often.

It singlehandedly pushed out the frontiers of social media, creating and sustaining a phenomenon that many people, in virtually every country around the world, wished to be part of.

Facebook was the hip employer, promising its staff innovation, status, wealth and a sense of mission. And, if all this was not enough, it was also redefining how businesses, governments and individuals interact.

For many, Facebook could do no wrong.

With this amazing aura, Facebook management and staff would have been easily forgiven for growing over-confident eventually and ultimately complacent. Indeed, given the company's rather restricted information-dissemination policy, few on the outside could have credibly challenged its achievements and ambitions.

The IPO changed all this. Suddenly, hundreds of analysts and observers were dissecting every bit of company information. Virtually every comment made by Mr. Zuckerberg and his talented colleagues was scrutinized for content and signals. And numerous attempts were made to link his plans and vision to a potential net revenue stream and a range for the company's shares.

Facebook's mystique and the related sense that it could do no wrong were replaced by the brutal reality of analyst's calls and downgrades. The stock quickly traded down from its hyped IPO level which, as I noted on the second day of trading, had sucked in too many unsuspecting investors.

In all this, the company's standing and its credibility have taken a material hit that, only a few months ago, would have been deemed not just unlikely but unthinkable. No wonder some suspect that morale at Facebook is low; and no wonder Mr. Zuckerberg felt it necessary, according to media reports, to address his company's stock decline which, according to a Wall Street Journal article, he deemed "painful" for some employees.

Ironically, all this may actually be good for Facebook in the long run.

Every successful company requires periodic reality checks which, in many cases, lead to beneficial course corrections. Indeed, the most successful companies do their utmost to hardwire as many reliable checks and balances as possible.

Yesterday's Facebook mystique has given way to a very public stock market debacle. Yet if the signals involved are well internalized by management and staff, Facebook could well avoid what could have been an even bigger reality shock down the road.

In the process, the company will help send a message to all those politicians who are way too eager to broad-brush public markets as a whole with the spectacular failures of a few segments. Well-functioning markets have played, and will continue to play, a critical role in maintaining the entrepreneurship and discipline that are essential to America's traditional vibrancy, its power of invention and innovation, and its global competitiveness.

Cross-posted from CNBC.com

 
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Media sources reported on Friday that Facebook's founder, Mark Zuckerberg, had held staff meetings, including a company-wide gathering earlier this month, to counter sagging morale caused by the sharp...
Media sources reported on Friday that Facebook's founder, Mark Zuckerberg, had held staff meetings, including a company-wide gathering earlier this month, to counter sagging morale caused by the sharp...
 
 
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Independent66
www.linkedin.com/in/harveyring
01:13 AM on 08/20/2012
Facebook was the most hyped stock in the last few years. Perhaps Enron and Worldcom were worse stocks due to the corrupt reporting of management and their subsequent bankruptcy. I don't know a tech investor that bought into the stock pre IPO and even tried to get a piece of the FF shares. The general consensus was that they would miss every forecast in the first year and be below $20 by the end of the year.
Anyone who looked at the prospectus saw all the red flags. Employees who have options that are in the money for a $20 stock or less will still see a gain after the lockup period. My advice is to take what you get on the day you exercise and forget what you might have had at $40. That was never real for employees.
I personally lock down my FB account to only 3 people, my children. They can tell me via FB that there is a post for me to see. 99% of the time it is a new photo of one or two of our grandchildren. That's all it is good for to me. Requests from Friends are denied and from business people told to use LinkedIn. I think the market is working just fine for FB.
10:57 AM on 08/19/2012
The Facebook management team should focus on running a company not a stock. Run a good company over time and the stock will take care of itself. Management team don't have control anyway on the general ups and downs of the stock market.
Facebook should focus on their vision to the company and where they want to be - as detailed in Mickey Mouse Ears or Rare Beers? - http://rsilberman.com/?p=418 - and on executing it. Leave the stock to the stock market.
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Gnomish
ego doctus ignarus
07:20 AM on 08/19/2012
Facebook was far to full of itself and the media seemed to be made up of cheerleaders.
They have slapped the public in the face far to often. People grow weary of their intrusion.

Multiple personalities is just the latest symptom.
04:49 AM on 08/19/2012
Indirectly? Yeah, ok. Fines aren't divied up and shareholders billed directly... but intentionally missing the point that the executives who commit fraud aren't the ones paying the fines is hardly a defense of the current reality.
10:27 PM on 08/18/2012
wow, I followed your link and nowhere did you suggest shorting facebook. Once more you made a vague call, with enough wiggle room if things didn't go your way. I have no idea why anyone listens to this man.
this is actually what you said, and please note the word could inserted for the wriggle room effect
"And this Facebook episode could also serve as a timely reminder for investors to consider not only what they invest in, but also how they invest— especially in hyped names.

or this: "suggest that we may need to wait for another, more legitimate catalyst. "

Notice in both instances, in the first if it could, then it also could not and in the second way may need to wait, or we may not. The man made no actual call, and no matter what direction the stock went he could in fact say he was right. The worst economic pundit in the world, he does this with each and every writing. never maes the call, but gives himself enough use of room to claim he was right

I can do this too, "we may land a man on the moon on Monday"
09:58 PM on 08/18/2012
The stock market is legalized gambling for the rich, and a way to suck money from the middle class and the poor.

It's a shell game. It's not about how good or bad a company is, whether it produces anything or not...

it's not even about the PERCEPTION of that, at least it hasn't been for quite some time...

The stock market has nothing to do with investing. It has everything to do with roulette.
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time1910
owner-operator germany
04:29 AM on 08/20/2012
Not true. Is Warren Buffett an investor or a roulette player?
11:05 AM on 08/20/2012
I couldn't tell you - I know almost nothing of the man.  But what I can say is that what an individual does with a system doesn't represent the whole system.  Are there legitimate uses for stocks?  Yes.  Are there legitimate investors seeking to put money into companies they believe in, hoping to strengthen the company and see a return on their investment in the long run?  Yes.  Is that the majority of what happens int he lightening trading on Wall Street and similar markets?  Hell no.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
NoboyukiMasaki
happy-happy, joy-joy
09:33 PM on 08/18/2012
This is a wakeup call for everyone who believes that Information Technology is a sustainable economy.

It isn't.

The IT Department at your job is NOT responsible for bringing in revenue. The IT Department at your job is an EXPENSE.

Physics and Engineering will always be superior to the virtual world. There are only so many things that you can accomplish on a computer screen. There is only so much interconnectivity that you can impose on the physical world before it becomes either a security threat - or just plain unnecessary.

It would have only been a matter of time before Google went the same way as Facebook - that's why Google bought Motorola Mobility.

Even Facebook had to give way to the laws of Physics. A supermassive star will implode under its own gravity once it starts to run out of fuel. Then like a Black Hole (Google), it will start to draw in everything in its path in order to stay viable.
11:24 PM on 08/18/2012
"...not responsible for bringing in revenue..." You know not what you say.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
NoboyukiMasaki
happy-happy, joy-joy
06:15 PM on 08/19/2012
Most business models do not include revenue streams from the IT department. The IT department is supposed to make the business model more streamlined.

I do indeed know what I'm talking about, sir...

: )
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Drosco
09:32 PM on 08/18/2012
Thanks for making an argument for me to short some more of this crp on Monday. up 20% since IPO. Most people could not sell but now they can unload. I say Monday closes at 18 bucks on it's way to 5 bucks!!!
11:09 AM on 08/20/2012
agree!
02:42 PM on 08/20/2012
Some institutions will keep this stock in the $18-$22 range for a while yet....while they slowly unload their shares on small upticks.
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Drosco
06:17 PM on 08/20/2012
A Facebook director today unloaded 20 million shares!! Lol !! Even they have no faith!!
This stock suffers from the SIRI effect. SIrius has massive following but stock price is like two bucks.
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SoylentGreenIsPeople
You know how to use Google too !
08:57 PM on 08/18/2012
What happens when finance becomes an end-in-itself? I think that is called speculation, and speculation is vastly different from investing. The problem is that few citizens recognize the difference.

Investing is about creating value and an income stream that should be reliable. Speculating is based on the assumption that you can purchase something today that you can sell at a higher price tomorrow when the item you are selling has little-to-no intrinsic value.

Unfortunately, the speculators now control "The Market" and by default the market operates more like a casino than a place to build long term wealth. However, this is not the real problem we face today.

The real problem we face today is that the recent collapse of a whole host of "financial products" has destroyed the one commodity that is essential to any functioning economic system -- TRUST. The market is now perceived to be nothing more than deceit and lies being marketed to the unwitting client. As long as that lack of trust dominates the market it cannot grow.

Finance is a part of the economic system, not the entire system.
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NoWayMan
08:34 PM on 08/18/2012
over-valued from the get go.
no one clicks those FB ads. no one.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Loki1001
08:25 PM on 08/18/2012
"And we should all be grateful to him given the extent to which some politicians have taken to generalized market bashing."

Really? Generalized market bashing? I would be very interested to know what American politicians have taken to "generalized market bashing." I have yet to hear a politician talk about doing away with capitalism or stating that the American market is dead and gone and never coming back and we should just be satisfied with regressing to third world status. Even though a fairly good case can be made for both statements.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
J T K
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
02:35 AM on 08/19/2012
why would they talk about it? They leave it to the communists... a technically correct appraisal of many commenters here, on Huffington Post to say that we should get rid of capitalism.
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Loki1001
12:08 PM on 08/19/2012
You do realize that capitalism and communism are not the only economic systems that exist? And if you can find a politician in America who is a member of the communist party, I'll give you a cookie. We aren't talking about the commenters here or anywhere, we're talking about politicians, you can tell because El-Erian said, "politicians." Also, your last sentence makes no sense. So you are kind of just wrong all around.
08:09 PM on 08/18/2012
I think it was a pump and dump operation. Facebook had access to the detailed user data, knew the popularity was peeking, knew that many people joined out of curiosity found it wasn't for them and never went back - but are still technically users, knew that many people only have an account to log in to blogs and so on, but never actually look at Facebook. Found that users were realizing that whilst having hundreds of friends was exciting it was also a way for parents, employers, authorities and crooks to investigate them. Realized that the next generation is going to see Facebook as something their parents use and not want anything to do with it.

Realized that it was a dead end and that the next great idea was more likely to be developed by some bright kid sitting in their dorm room than by their research team. The trouble with businesses like Facebook is that there are no barriers to entry. Anybody can start the next Facebook, all you need is a good idea and a bit of energy.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
MilesLong
Livin' the Dream
07:20 PM on 08/18/2012
As others have intimated, Facebook has tried to commoditize their business model since its inception. Currently the most able revenue-generating feature is the advertising that it serves up to subscribers.

People do not log on to Facebook to be served ads, they are looking to exploit the social networking features of the online environment.

As an author, many have implored me to create an account devoted to my speculative universe. There is no purchase for it there. Regardless of the visual traction I may engender, under every analysis of the networking potential, Facebook is a fairly useless venue upon to build a mass marketing campaign.

Miles "Dollars & Sense {grin}" Long
06:56 PM on 08/18/2012
The discussion should focus on the "non debt creating". The Wall Street mentality that has devolved is that shareholders are owed nothing.
Seeing it admitted so openly should be troubling to all.

The "non debt creating" now means that CEO salaries can be unjustifiably exhorbitant... corporations owe no debt to shareholders whose returns suffer. Fraud has been integrated into corporate business plans... because shareholders can be stuck with the fines and penalties. Short term profits come first... because long term viability is no longer a debt owed to shareholders. Bankruptcies are cheered by the Romney types... because shareholders getting wiped out barely impacts the profits for the few, while voiding contracts with labor, destroying unions and creating new buying opportunities for the rich few.

There are of course exceptions to this new reality, but vulture capitalism has become all too prevalent.
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J T K
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
02:37 AM on 08/19/2012
"shareholders can be stuck with the fines and penalties"

If you mean directly then you are wrong. The very nature of a corporation absolves the shareholders from any responsibility for the actions of the corporation. If you mean indirectly then yes, but that's always been the case with anything that reduces share price and/or available cash for dividends and for raising the value of a company.
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pdxbuckeye
06:41 PM on 08/18/2012
1. I have seen no one of signifcant standing in our political institutions make a "generalized market bashing" type of statement. Calling for regulating a market system that continually scams investors, particularly when flooded with retirment savings, is not that same as generalized market bashing.

2. The Facebook valuation was incredibly overpriced, it is the job of the street firms rolling out the IPO to vet the offering on behalf of their investors. They once again failed to do that in favor of massive profit taking. Hence the need for regulation.

3. The market, as represented, has been consistently dergulated since the Reagan Revolution. What has that yielded, 3 massive financial sector driven economic collapses in a 23 year time span. Collapses that has wiped out huge swathes of middle income wealth and retirment stability. Hence the need to stop this ever crippling deregulation zeal.

If we want most Aemricans to be prosperous and financially stable, I agree a market system is the right choice, but one with proper regulation and a social safety net in place to backstop the inevitable failures of the system and the vagueries of the business cycle. What we have witnessed in those 3 collapses has not been the vagueries of the business cycle though, it has been intentional bad faith actions, like the facebook IPO, that have lead to financial ruin. The non-wall street american citizen has been basically left to hold the bag on each occassion while wall street becomes less regulated.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
J T K
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
02:39 AM on 08/19/2012
On your second point, there's a reason why every investing firm has multiple disclaimers about the risk that a person takes when undertaking any investing/trading opportunity. In the end its always been on the person making the trade or authorizing someone else to make the trade to do the research and make the decision. I agree that FB was overpriced but there's no way to regulate to protect people from not doing their own due diligence and from making bad decisions.
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pdxbuckeye
06:04 PM on 08/19/2012
Sure, but it is difficult to argue that those offering the IPO did not know about the weeknesses in the offering. You do not see many initial offerings of note (this is key, ones that get a ton of press) that totally collapse the way FB has. What was so different about FB? It was not the wall street firms themselves that had access to the offering up front. This particular offering was different because it went truly public out of the gate. Institutional investors stayed out because it was not as easy to profit take like they typically could in the restricted method typically used.