Welcome to what could be called "GGIRC," the great global interest rate convergence -- whereby interest rates steadily converge to zero in many countries around the world, both advanced (other than the crisis European economies) and emerging (other than the persistent financial basket cases).
In theory this is a good thing for a global economy.
After all, major economic areas, particularly Europe and to a lesser extent the United States, are challenged by too little growth, too much debt and too high a joblessness rate (especially among the young and the long-term unemployed).
Even more dynamic economies, from Brazil to China, are slowing.
According to textbook economics, lower interest rates have beneficial flow and stock effects.
They make it cheaper to fund investment and consumption; and they make it easier for companies, governments and individuals to carry a given stock of already-accumulated debt.
In practice, however, the situation is much more complicated and not so benign.
GGIRC is not happening for good reasons.
As such, the effects are slow to materialize. And, unless quickly accompanied by other policy initiatives, the consequences will be at best mixed and, probably, net negative.
Three major factors are behind GGIRC.
First and foremost, hyper activist central banks that are using traditional (price) and unconventional (quantity) measures to force interest rates down.
Just look at the series of actions by America's Federal Reserve -- from flooring policy rates at almost zero for an exceptionally long time (and also pre-committing to keeping them there until the end of December 2014) to purchasing an enormous amount of U.S. Treasury and mortgage securities in a further attempt to drive borrowing costs down.
Second, individuals and institutions are piling into government securities to protect against principal loss in an increasingly uncertain and worrisome global economy and an ever-deepening European crisis.
This is most pronounced for Germany, Switzerland and the United States, where inflows of capital have led to negative nominal rates for short-dated securities (i.e., investors willingly accepting marginally less money on maturity than they invest).
Third, global investors are spreading GGIRC through "the global carry trade." This search for relatively safe yield is driving the flow of money into the local bond markets of countries such as Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.
Yet GGIRC is not fueling an economic boom driven by labor hiring and investment in plant and equipment.
Simply put, lower borrowing costs are not enough to convince companies to expand given the list of domestic, regional and global uncertainties; indeed, many of these companies are far from credit rationed as they sit on huge cash balances.
And they only help at the margin the highly-indebted consumers.
This limited scope for benefits comes with the growing reality of collateral damage and unintended consequences.
Today's market-based economies, and the accompanying institutional setup, do not function well at such artificially repressed interest rates.
Certain segments, from pension funds and life insurance companies to money market funds, are particularly challenged.
They have no choice but to shrink the scale and scope of financial services they offer to individuals and institutions.
Then there are some emerging countries that could well be de-stabilized by some of the activities encouraged by artificially-repressed interest rates.
It is only a matter of time until they are challenged by asset market bubbles (including in housing) and irresponsible lending by institutions subject to weak market and regulatory supervision.
This is not to say that GGIRC is a bad thing. It need not be.
But it will be if not quickly accompanied by major policy actions that address the causes of today's global economic malaise.
What the world economy needs today is a coordinated set of measures to promote growth, allocate financial losses, match healthy balance sheet with those that are challenged and reforming, and improve the functioning of the labor and housing markets.
For this to materialize, highly polarized and dysfunctional politics needs to give way to more strategic and constructive interactions across party lines and social segments.
There is little to suggest that this will happen any time soon absent yet another major financial crisis.
In the meantime, GGIRC may well morph from being seen as part of the solution to inadvertently becoming part of the problem.
Cross-posted from CNBC.com
What on earth makes you think banks want to loan money at 3%, good FICO or not when they can get that or better just buying treasuries with no risk what so ever.
Lend or give money to people that will spend it.
No Sir.
More Tax breaks to the wealthy and force the banks to take more money at zero percent.
Trickle down, rinse and repeat.
Problems fixed.
What I think is that the vampire living on debt has collapsed (exposed to daylight) and the big boys who are about to take a huge hit are trying to reanimate the corpse. Cheap debt based on tangible assets would help balance the mountain of garbage they now hold. Banks use the low rates from the Fed to pump up and extend the pyramid in another desperate, voodoo attempt to reanimate Dracula throwing real assets into a black hole. As long as it goes on more people will be hurt.
They ate the seed corn, starved the oxen that pulled the cart and are now consuming the corpses.
Now they're rushing for the gate and everyone in the way is being crushed. Bonds won't save them because real wealth is founded on the prosperity of the people. Without them everything else is just a fading paper illusion. Suicide by debt.
The Coming Global Financial Nuclear Detonation:
ECONOMIC INFOGRAPHICS
http://demonocracy.info/
DERIVATIVES: THE UNREGULATED GLOBAL CASINO FOR BANKS
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html
The Deuterium Trigger On EVERYONE'S BANK ACCOUNTS:
BANK OF AMERICA DEATHWATCH
http://tinyurl.com/6hc5txa
BANK OF AMERICA DANGEROUS DERIVATIVES DEAL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_XtXhiekQk
Low interest rates are a double edged sword. It is great if you are a young borrower. It is terrible if you re a retired saver. After years of being responsible with money now is the worst time for retired old people. We will certainly outlive our money and probably end in a soup kitchen line. In 2000, if you had $50,000.00 invested in a five year treasury obligation you could see $3,075.00 interest income for a year. (6.15%) Now the same obligation is yielding 0.7% which is interest income of $350.00 a year. This is the lowest rate since the late forties and early fifties. A income decline of 89% in just 12 years.
But...
The reason interest rates are low is to enccourage borrowing -- in a world that is already drowning in debt! That is pure insanity, but it is the chosen solution in economies like ours where all money is created as debt for the profit of private banks.
The fact the MSM won't ever talk about is that via Fractional Reserve Banking, banks lend money into existence.
The US money supply increased from $300 billion in 1970 to over $18 trillion now, all of it created as debt and all of it needs to be paid back with interest, and the only place to get that money is to create even more debt/money.
Constitutional monetary reform is the best answer (HR6550), but Congress is so corrupt it will not pass unless Citizens wake up to this fundamental corruption of the Free Enterprise economy. The best hope now is for more State Banks like North Dakota's and those used by the thriving BRIC countries, 17 US states have bills pending to creat them.
Read Ellen Brown on WebofDebt.com, and support publicbankinginstitute.org
-John Maynard Keynes
Fanned. - AJB
The average American does not yet fully grasp that we are facing a 300 YEAR EVENT. If you add in the history of the "Corporate Charters of Kings" it is a 500 year event. The DEEP ROOT PROBLEM is the "Money-As-Debt Fractional Reserve Banking System" invented by the Bank of England in 1694. But people are now very slowly learning all about this via the Internet. THE MSM will never cover this debate. NEVER!
The Structural Problem:
THE SECRET OF OZ - Bill Still
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI
LIFE INC. - Douglas Rushkoff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOBWhVe68os
WEB OF DEBT - Ellen Brown (1 of 5)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0XiklHPMc
The Solution:
"THE LOST SCIENCE OF MONEY" - Stephen A. Zarlenga
http://old.monetary.org/lostscienceofmoney.html
A SHORT HISTORY OF THE "MONEY POWER" - Stephen A. Zarlenga
http://www.monetary.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/32-page-brochure-sept2011.pdf
HR-2990 - 09/21/11 Public Money
http://www.monetary.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/HR-2990.pdf
The Coming Global Financial Nuclear Detonation:
ECONOMIC INFOGRAPHICS
http://demonocracy.info/
DERIVATIVES: THE UNREGULATED GLOBAL CASINO FOR BANKS
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html
Government could also pass a living wage based on inflation to gain balance.
Government doing nothing is the problem.
risk & inflation must be added on
The IMF, World Bank, RW parties around the world, the European Troika and other elites beg to differ.
Austerity is all that is needed.
Can't you tell, as the Troika in Europe has invoked austerity for over 4 years now and the economy of every nation has been experiencing robust growth as a result.
Unemployment and levels of poverty have never been lower. Just the other day, Spain realized it not only had over 50% of it's youth unemployed, the nation as a whole reached over 25% unemployment level.
No worries as the Spanish banks have been bailed out, with the invoice sent to the taxpayers and the ECB etal are keeping the interest rates low .....
It's a good thing, can you imagine how bad things would be if the Public sectors of nations started spending?
OMG !
The solution to our problems is to strip all conservatives of any power whatsoever.