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Mona Gable

Mona Gable

Posted: April 26, 2008 03:01 PM

Can Hillary Really Win?


Is this ever going to end?

Superdelegates who haven't yet declared for Obama or Hillary are waiting it out under the pretense of letting the remaining voters have their say. And then come June or perhaps July--when they feel like it, I guess, or when they're sure Hillary is toast and they can be assured of not alienating her--they'll happily weigh in.

That's all very democratic of them, but aren't they ignoring something? No matter how aggressively Hillary touts herself as a populist, the gal who can single-handedly repair the economy on Day One, the gal who can best terrify Iran, the gal who can best beat McCain in November, she won't have enough delegates to win the nomination. Even if Florida and Michigan by some miracle got to vote. Or she won every single contest here on out. Which is unlikely. The only way she can pass Obama is if the superdelegates throw it to her. As James Carville might say, it's the math, stupid!

This is a point the beleaguered Chuck Todd, NBC News' political director, has been repeatedly trying to make since Hillary scored in Pennsylvania. Setting off a frenzy of hope among her tireless supporters. I don't begrudge them their giddiness. But why are the superdelegates insisting she still has a shot? Are they delusional or am I missing something?

As one told AP: "I'm willing to give Sen. Clinton the opportunity to win the popular vote," said Rep. Jason Altmire, whose western Pennsylvania district favored Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin in Tuesday's balloting. "I think she's earned the right to continue."

Maybe so, but I'm beginning to feel like we're watching an endless loop of Deal or No Deal.

Meanwhile, John McCain is having a field day. While the Democrats battle it out, he gets to play a role that is totally out of character--the nice guy--while the media dutifully plays along. On his impeccably timed poverty tour through the South, McCain apparently discovered that New Orleans had been ravaged by a hurricane. Boy did that make him mad! He even got to take the high road and blame that another compassionate conservative George Bush.

But did the forgetful Republican nominee not know about Katrina? Did he not see the TV footage of people trapped on roofs holding up signs that read "HELP" while floodwaters threatened to drown them? Where was he the last three years while FEMA was shoving the city's poor into poisonous trailers?

And how does he explain fighting a bill that included $28 billion in hurricane relief?

During his so-called "fact-finding" trip McCain had a camera crew shooting footage for commercials and a film that will be shown at the Republican convention. But they skipped some of the worst neighborhoods in the Lower 9th Ward. Maybe McCain was afraid they'd get dirty?

Speaking of dirty, McCain is totally against those racially charged North Carolina TV ads showing Obama's former pastor. He's so upset he asked the state Republican Party to take them off the air. But strangely enough they haven't.

I wonder why.

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05:00 PM on 04/28/2008
Can Hillary really win?

No, she's really good at losing though.

I'm getting scared that she's gonna pull a LIEberman and form the "America for Hillary" party, which would give the presidency to McSame. I wouldn't put this past them considering the way Hillary has run her "kitchen sink" campaign.

It's obviously not about what's right for America for the Clintons, its about what's good for THEM.

Any reasonable person wouldn't trust personal opportunists such as the Clintons to fight for their interests.
11:59 AM on 04/28/2008
Let's face reality. Neither candidate wil have teh votes. But the difference is that HRC can win in November, whereas Obama cannot. From his appointment against Alan Keyes to suppressing two major states, he wil always have teh question of illegitimacy and cheating around him. He already faced enough problems as this stared just based on race, religion, dmeographics, etc. Add Michelle Obama's I hate america statements to Obama's own idiotic typical white person cling to guns and god statements to Rev Wright and Rezko, he can't win. Add in an illegitmate voctory where he was given some type of perceived affirmative action quota "bonus" by taking away 2 states that he lost, and there is no way he can win over the blue dogs and swing voters needed to win. It just is not possible in reality.
12:57 PM on 04/28/2008
Whatever!!!! You obviously failed at math too.
01:38 PM on 04/28/2008
Ummm. Obviously. As I know that 48 does not equal 50 and one voter at a caucus only equals one voter.

Maybe I just need to addle my ability to count with some Obama Kool-Aid?
12:59 PM on 04/28/2008
Unfortunately--despite being the one to point out the obvious truth that Senator Obama is another Dukakis/Mondale/McGovern waiting to happen, and receiving withering, viciouscriticism in response--Senator Clinton is going to end up having to take one for the team (Democratic Party) and step down. Even so, she will be blamed for all of Senator Obama's shortcomings, including when he loses in November. In the meantime, Howard Dean and the rest of his cronies will be convinced that all of the newly registered voters are actually going to be lifelong Democrats--when, in fact, the bulk of them won't bother showing up _this_ November, forget voting loyally for decades to come.

It is Senator Clinton's own fault for running a terrible campaign during January and February, when it really mattered--but, the country is going to pay the price, when Senator McCain takes the oath of office.
02:22 AM on 04/28/2008
Hillary Clinton is having her shot at the expense of the Democratic Party and of the policies ans ideals it espouses - policies that she herself champions. Barack Obama also espouses those same beliefs. That's part of the reason he hasn't come after her in the same way that she has done to him. To him, the enemy seems to be McCain and the Republican Party that led us into Iraq. To Hillary Clinton, a woman I've admired in the past, it seems increasingly clear that, to her, the enemy is anyone and anything that stands between her and the presidency. After so many years of a power-hungry administration that has placed personal power above the law, it will be good for the country to have Barack Obama in the White House. In the meantime, Clinton should recognize that she still has an important place in the Democratic Party and that she is destroying her credibility and integrity. Recognizing the math and not placing the superdelegates in an unsavory position would be a smart move for her politically at this point. We need to get behind the Democratic candidate who has won the popular vote and the delegate vote and take on John McCain.
09:23 PM on 04/27/2008
www.superdelegateinfo.org/
09:19 PM on 04/27/2008
Try this instead, the other link is not bringing you there for some reason:

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Portal:Superdelegate_Transparency_Project
09:05 PM on 04/27/2008
I was reading in the NATION May issue. They have a link in there that lists the superdelegates by state. It states in the Nation that 22 of the superdelegate politicians that are backing Clinton are from areas where Obama has won. Check it out.

www.superdelegateinfo.org
09:43 PM on 04/27/2008
what's your point. Off the top of my head without any research I can name 6 of Obama's delegates from states where Clinton won. And, I'm sure there must be others

MA - Sen Ted Kennedy, Sen John Kerry, Gov Patrick
AZ - Gov Napolitano
NM - Gov Bill Richardson
PA - Sen Casey
08:00 PM on 04/27/2008
No, Hillary cannot win.

It is my expectation that Obama will end the primary season June 3 with about a pledged delegate margin of about a hundred votes.

Shortly thereafter, the DNC and Obama's campaign will announce they will recommend that the credentials committee seat the Florida and Michigan delegations selected at their state conventions, giving Clinton a 60 net delegate gain. Obama will continue to lead the total pledged delegate count by about 40 votes.

A few hundred superdelegates will announce their committment to vote for Obama at the convention. Obama will be the presumptive nominee, AND Michigan and Florida will have been counted in the total.

If the situations were reversed, and Clinton was ahead by any number of pledged delegates, she would be the nominee. To do anything else would leave her supporters feeling severely alienated and cheated. The Democrats won't do that to either side. Since Obama will almost certainly be in the lead, he will be the nominee.

I hope that the Democrats can then unite around Obama, our nominee, and win in November.
07:51 PM on 04/27/2008
North Carolina and Indiana voters: If you are truly sick of politics like we are, you will show us the end of the road. Blow out for Obama. Everyone needs to vote for Obama and end this. Hillary does not have the math. Her ego is telling her, maybe just one more state!! We can't afford to stroke your EGO Hillary, we have an old man that wants to stay at war. Our troops are on the line, not your freaking EGO. Gas prices , jobs, economy, healthcare, war, these are the real issues. You have chosen to go play by the Republican's playbook and be NEGATIVE on your own party. SHAME ON YOU HILLARY.
We don't want you Hillary, the people have spoken. Delegates are what matters, the MATH is not there for you. Stop now so we can kick this old man's ass. He wants a freaking 100 year war, there is no telling what other war he will get us into. If this goes badly Hillary I am blaming your ASS.
07:25 PM on 04/27/2008
The REAL SHAME is that a Senator with a 16-year Brand Recognition headstart, began her campaign with $100 Million and 250 Superdelegates, had the media in her pocket from the beginning, and is married to a former President is LOSING to a Freshman Senator who happens to be African-American.

Wonder why the media is not asking, "What's wrong with Clinton's Candidacy?"
11:17 AM on 04/28/2008
It is far from the truth that the Hillary Clinton had the media in her pocket from the beginning. It has only been the last few months that Obama was receiving any bad press. Why do you think he was called the "teflon man?" People are now having second thoughts about Obama. If you would have re-votes in Missouri and Iowa, I believe the outcome would be very different. He has ticked off many midwesterners with his gun/religion/antipathy statement.
01:12 PM on 04/28/2008
'He has ticked off many midwesterners with his gun/religion/antipathy statement'.
Why would this tick someone off, it is the truth. We fall back on the things we feel comfortable with when we are threatened. Apathy has become a why of life, for more years then I am willing to admit. We have been screwed the republicans and the democrats equally. It is time for change. It is time to take a chance instead of sitting back and pointing fingers. We have so many problems in this country right now, that it is going to take more then a republican(same old same old) or a suto-president aka first lady(who want to obliterate Iran) to fix what it wrong. Maybe Barack is not the complete answer but he presents possibilities that do not exist with the others and wants us to be apart of it instead of sitting on the sidelines..........that is a big plus for alot of us...........

Only time will tell
06:25 PM on 04/28/2008
"people are now having second thoughts" straight out of the Clinton Talking Points. I'm not having second thoughts about Obama. Every time Hillary opens her mouth I get further and further away from her. I AM however, having second thoughts about the so called Democratic Party, if the election is reversed into Hillary's favor. If she had been in the lead, I would have respectfully supported her candidacy in the general, even though my heart was for Obama. But this is an entirely different situation here. Her primary voctory could only be achieved in the most Un American, Un Democratic way... Clintonites refuse to see the situation from the Obama supporters perspective... not even a glimpse if empathy for understandng the audacity of relinquishing a hard earned legitimately ran campaign that will put him in the lead when the voies of the people have had their say at the polls. Why not just stop the elections now and just give it to Hillary? She isn't going to catch up, so why wait? Barack should just step down now, or maybe graciously accept the VP slot... Another ridiculous talking point: Let's let all the votes count! (Except the final totals) or, "They will both be short of delegates" (except one will be a hell of a lot shorter than the other) or "the race is neck-and-neck"... Can't stand the heat...just words...more than just talk we want solutions...blah blah, do you know how silly these words sound?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
army193
07:04 PM on 04/27/2008
MSM acts if though this is like any other election. We are in Un-chartered territory we have the first (Oldest White male-American?) to run for President and first Female-American and first African-American...I betting my life and yours on Obama.
05:44 PM on 04/27/2008
Is that the question we want to ask ourselves? I mean isn't she entitled to win? After all she has been waiting all her life to ascertain the rights of all female politicians to lie and scare voters.. Hey if a male politician can do it, so can a woman politician. Why should we wait for a female JFK or Lincoln, when a retard like Bush can become the pres? Its about time we had a female president no matter what the consequences..
01:15 PM on 04/28/2008
Bush felt he was entitled also and look what that got us!
War
Recession
insane oil prices
higher food costs
4000+ dead Americans BECAUSE of a lie
high unemployment (and getting higher)

Not something to look forward too just because someone THINKS they are entitled.
02:09 PM on 04/27/2008
Do you think there is any chance Hillary will go ahead run as an Independent if she does not get the Democratic nomination?

Just a thought ... she is so desperate!

Lillie
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
PAposter
Radical Progressive
02:22 PM on 04/27/2008
Good luck with that, Independents do not support her now. By design an Independent would not find themselves associated with such a divisive, self-serving individual. Clinton epitomizes everything Independents hate about Washington.
03:23 PM on 04/27/2008
In the latest polls Obama's ratings among independents have dropped 14 points and while he still holds a 9 point edge over Clinton among independents, Clinton holds a 19 point lead over Obama among rank & file Democrats. Obama's problem isn't independents, it is that he is not connecting with blue collar Democrats. In terms of socio-economic groups, Obama only won one group in PA, those that earn over $150,000 a year. He lost the group that earn $30 or less by 53-47 despite winning 92% of AA votes. What does that tell you?
04:18 PM on 04/27/2008
I'm an Independent. And I and the other Indies that I know will vote for Obama. None of us will vote for Clinton. ( There are mixed thoughts on McCain in a McCain-Clinton race. I think, most would stay home. )
03:28 PM on 04/27/2008
No. She and Bill are too deeply invested and entrenched in the Party...don't forget the DLC.
01:59 PM on 04/27/2008
Mona,
Your argument that John McCain is getting a free ride is the fault of the media, not the dem primary season.

There is no reason at all that the media couldn't be doing their job of covering more than one event at a time. The media is doing just as poor a job of covering the dem primary as they are of covering McCain, and they have done a poor job of boh throughout the entire primary.

It's not a secret that the media has always given McCain a free ride. And, it shouldn't take the dem party to get them to do their job covering him properly. Journalists are free to question McCain critcally without the dems giving them the questions to ask.

If the dem party wanted a primary system that didn't extend until June 3, then they should have scheduled one that ended earlier. Why was there 6 empty weeks before PA voted?
01:50 PM on 04/27/2008
Many of the SD's will start trickling out in Obama's favor. It is in the best interest of the Democratic Party to let the primaries go forward because of the enormous interest and large increase in registered voters for the Democratic Party. This gives the DNC an edge in November against McCain. After the last primary, Obama will have secured the nomination. DNC will give Clinton her Fl votes and delegates. Obama will get his. Mi will be split 50/50 and the delegates will be seated. Clinton will campaign for Obama or find any future in politics severely compromised. Obama will be elected in November. At least, that's what is going on over here in my little world.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
PAposter
Radical Progressive
02:04 PM on 04/27/2008
I've taken up residence in your little world, because I agree with your very reasonable outline of how the process will proceed.
02:56 PM on 04/27/2008
Your little world is getting bigger! Hope the superdelegates factor in the Rush Limbaugh crossovers who are voting for Hillary. She wouldn't get them in the general election.
04:41 PM on 04/27/2008
Nice world, as long as Hillary doesn't destroy it.
01:31 PM on 04/27/2008
Mona Gable makes the same mistake everyone else makes. A candidate does NOT have to win the most ELECTED delegates to win the nomination.

Mona should have listened to Howard Dean on Meet The Press this morning. He made it very clear that the candidate with the mose DELEGATES will win the nomination. And he clarified that so that no one would make the mistake of thinking he meant elected delegate. He was very clear in saying that super delegates have no rule to vote for the candidate leading in elected delegates. It was vey plain and very simple that the role of super delegates is to vote their conscience on who t hey feel has the best chance to win in Nov.

Neither I nor Mona Gable nor anyone else posting here knows what may happen between now and August to make EITHER candidate unable to win the election in Nov.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
PAposter
Radical Progressive
01:59 PM on 04/27/2008
I think Howard Dean was choosing his words very careful for a reason, but not for the reason you may be thinking. Although elected delegates are representative of popular votes, it is correct that superdelegates can overturn them. I believe anyone paying attention is aware of this information by now, that is not at issue. At issue is whether or not they will. To suggest that a candidate like Senator Obama cannot win in November where he did not during the primary season is ludicrous. Many primaries do not allow crossover voting, that's why over 300K Republicans had to change party affiliation. However, all states allow party crossover in the Presidential election, so when Independents and frustrated Republicans become part of the process, it's a whole new ballgame. Hillary Clinton cannot and will not attract this demographic of voters, she is also certain to lose a percentage of blacks, gays, conservative Democrats and youths. Senator Barack Obama is truly a man of the people, not just some, but all the people. I would suggest that most of Clinton's supporters don't really care about the people being left out of he plan.
08:05 PM on 04/27/2008
At this point she has lost the African American vote, she won't get the young voters that were passionate about Obama and she has lost me , over 50 white woman. I will stay home rather than vote for her : She is spewing her "BLUE COLLAR WOMAN BULLSHIT SPEECH AGAIN IN IN AND NC" How can anyone believe that she understands their pain, she was born with a silver spoon in her mouth. 109 MILLION DOLLARS on her tax returns and she calls Obama an Elitist. What a hyprocrite. I really can't tolerate watching her anymore. I'm done.