Leaders of industry and government from all over the world this week gather in Davos, Switzerland, for discussion on "The Great Transformation: Shaping New Models." The theme could not be more fitting. The model for future growth is an issue that calls for urgent debate.
There is no mistaking that 2012 is set to be a challenging year. The slowdown in global economic growth is expected to persist, while unemployment rates will remain high, creating difficulties for millions of households worldwide. At the same time, elections and political transition in key economies will lead to the sharpening of political debate and potentially also add further turbulence and instability.
The debt crisis in the Euro-zone is a pressing challenge and one that impacts the capacity for growth. While the Japanese and U.S. economies are forecast to see modest growth of around 2% during 2012 (IMF figures), the Euro-zone is projected to drop at -0.5%. It is the responsibility of our friends in Europe -- with the support of the international community -- to ensure that the challenges being faced in the region are managed and not allowed to result in a ripple-effect that threatens the global economy.
It is equally important, however, for us to recognize that the issues we face in 2012 are not limited to the debt crisis in the Euro-zone.
At the individual level we have seen unambiguous signs that the economic climate is contributing to discontent. Public sentiment has undergone a distinct shift, and we can be far less certain that a return to previous levels of economic growth can erase this dissatisfaction. Through the Occupy Wall Street movement and other demonstrations, we have heard not only a message of anger at the current situation, but the desire for something else; for something more. The search is underway, particularly among the young people of the world, for a new model of growth.
A fundamental assertion for any new growth model, that is, dynamic and inclusive growth, is that three basic elements -- the economy, society, and the environment -- are each integral and must all contribute to overall improvement. Such thinking is not superfluous or a luxury that can only be afforded during periods of strong economic performance. It is critical to recognize that we must seek to provide not only prosperity, but also leave behind a healthy social and natural environment for future generations.
The new growth model must, in other words, impart more than economic gain. In recent years governments around the world, including Japan, have quietly turned their attention to research into the question of happiness and quality of life. How do we measure, or even define, such a concept? What factors contribute? In an era when so many people face stark economic challenges, does it even matter? Fundamentally, how do we meet the needs of society, and of future generations?
Research and, one could argue, the message from demonstrations around the world, would indicate that the contribution made by society and the environment play an integral role in ensuring our citizens realize their personal goals. Such factors are therefore critical to both prosperity and sustainability; an important part of the new growth model.
Society is influenced, and can be strengthened, through a wide range of factors that directly impact people's lives. Through the sense of security that comes from living a healthy, sustainable life; by the knowledge that we are making a contribution to our community; in the ability to live a life free from the threat of crime; and by the sense of promise that results from a fair society that rewards personal success.
The bottom-line is that the equilibrium between the economy, society and the environment must be viewed as complementary rather than a trade-off. This is not a zero-sum game. Japan claims the world's lowest infant mortality rate, the highest life expectancy, the lowest crime rate and the lowest CO2 emissions to GDP among developed economies. Such gains, which have been driven by the Japanese economy and technological advancements, bring tangible benefits to the environment and society.
Our goal is to see Japanese expertise pave the way for new frontiers at the point of interaction and partnership between life sciences, environmental technologies, social entrepreneurs and other stakeholders globally. Such cooperation -- and the innovation that results -- will lead to the emergence of new global corporations and social entrepreneurs acting at an international level. It will also support improvements to quality of life by contributing not only to the economy, but to the environment and to society at multiple levels.
The way that individuals regard quality of life and happiness varies greatly in accordance with religion, culture and personal outlook; much as the demands of demonstrators we have seen around the world differ with politics, economy and society.
Certain fundamental truths, however, are common the world over. The desire for health, security, and prosperity are universal, and are central to personal satisfaction.
Research into concepts such as quality of life and happiness, and efforts to incorporate such thinking into new growth models, ought not to be done for research's sake, but for concrete, practical purposes. The discussion of new growth models is promoting a re-examination of economic, social, environmental and development policy.
In Japan, an outline of initiatives and commitments that are required for the country's revitalization has been formulated and is already starting to be implemented.
Our hope is that 2012 comes to be the turning point for global initiatives for the establishment of a new growth model. As an active participant in the international community, Japan is committed to playing a leading role in this process.
Arianna Huffington: Sunday Roundup
Bill Moyers: The Party People of Wall Street
Mark Tercek: Smart Resource Management: Good for Nature, People and Business
Imagine if you will the early 1800's Great Britain and textiles and the use of coal energy it was slow and expensive getting started, this is the bottom of the S-Curve but after a time it took off. Now we are at the top of this S-Curve and there are no great leaps to make so consequently we will continue to have in the industrial nations stagnant growth.
We need a new S-Curve. In economics this can be forced artificially. The best mechanism I see is the TAX CODE because People & Corporations hate to pay TAXES!
We add an Environmental Tax Or Tariff on all products sold based on their environmental footprint of manufacturing, transportation, and sustainability. This puts fossil fuels at a disadvantage relative to renewable energy. Particularly imports.
This would force everyone to a more renewable manufacturing practices spur invention and create a new Economic S-Curve - the Green S-Curve if you will.
The key to maintaining the S-Curve is invention and we are reaching a point of diminished returns in regards to fossil fuel energy inventions. However because of the relatively cost advantage of fossil fuels this transition is taking to long causing our stagnant growth.
Just a thought.
1. Solve the unemployment crises.
2. Solve the education dilemma with a high (50%) school drop-out rate (and 70% in big cities).
3. Shrink the healthcare crises caused by lack of illness-prevention and end-of-life care; costing 50% of all healthcare costs; which is 2 trillion dollars.
4. Reduce the cost of managing chronic illness and nursing home which accounts for 75% of healthcare costs and 70% of deaths.
5. Reduce the 50% divorce rate.
6. Reduce the high incidence of depression in adults and children.
7. Reduce the high incidence of stress and stress-related disorders.
8. Decrease the consumption of junk, fast-foods, prepared foods and alcohol.
9. Rediscover the value of family, (near and extended), neighborhood and society.
10. Rediscover the importance of cultural values and ties.
Any one of the above should give us pause to realize what we are doing to ourselves; and how history will judge and evaluate present civilization. Yet long before history judges us, our children and grandchildren will judge us by the type of America we leave them; including the massive debt.
Single earner may be the woman who commonly is the higher earner.
Let's see people want security first, that means they want shelter and food - so instead of making those the RIGHT of every population let's champion a "growth" system that, like cancer, takes over the host while destroying vital life along the way. Let's, like radiation therapy or chemotherapy, create a system that "helps" by weakening the entire life system to the point of death. Then our leaders can pat themselves on the backs for a job well done and say "We created booming businesses while killing off the populations they say they serve." Brilliant!
Thank you. I wonder if Motohisa Furukawa ever considered moving to the US...
Under our current model, growth = energy consumption = environmental destruction
This model is not sustainable, as we are finding out.
http://www.sustainwellbeing.net/gpi.html
Thanks for the link....8-)
So much depends on recognizing the disease and the root cause to achieve a renewed concern for the quality of life for individuals to re-balance the tension between the common good and the essential need for capital formation resulting from real investment.
The Street's emphasis remains on structured investments - financial innovation at the expense of capital formation. Financial investment to maximize profit from unmitigated leveraged derivatives and tax policies encouraging offshore jobs and parked profits. Clearly at the expense of 99% for the uber riche.
Japan has dealt with problems we must confront for an extra decade - let's not dismiss the import of what Japan has discovered.
Our Republic is on shaky ground. OWS has called attention to this fact. Misunderstandings of the real issues proliferate - because Americans need to be better informed - and become critically introspective.
I began my new book because, for 25 years, I have watched financial investment become the rule and witnessed the demise of valuing the common good. I have written 2 books about unbridled, unfettered greed, and in 1990 warned we were becoming a "service" economy. So now our culture is ruled by maximizing profits no matter what - and CEO swine flu. The fixes are not Socialism - but about fairness.
To be better
This is our concept of a cure www.the-communal-solution.us
Albert Bartlett has this Model on yt.Simple, well fairly simple math explains that this will not work.
Watch the video.
and Life.
Perhaps the Answer to the new Growth Strategy is to be found in Science.
How to solve the cost issues in sustaining Family by creating new sources of Food, Energy
and Knowlege.
I appreciate this Statement by Furukawa for it's Integrity and Objectivity.
There are a number of industries that, given a fair opportunity to compete, could easily be profitable and beneficial to America's economic growth. The longer an industry is able to hold on here the better the chances the industry will find a ways to reduce costs and environmental damage through innovation. When the industry completely disappears like so many have over the past decade we lose out completely. But our industry and trade policies have all but ensured those industries have moved to places like China that are willing to work at a loss to gain a long term industrial advantage over us.
Change and improvement are fully possible without growth.
1. Start English education earlier.
2. Encourage companies to encourage their employees to use their vacation time when they like.
3. Continue with efficiency and renewable energy programs.
4. Pull back on whaling.
5. Encourage companies to produce products that are functionally competitive.
6. Encourage students to study abroad.
There are lessons to be learned from the Meiji period and from the reconstruction after WWII that are applicable today.
The most fundamental truth being it takes energy to grow the economy. Since we are at the top of the oil production curve sustained world-wide growth doesn't seem to be in the cards.
We need to invent a steady-state economy.