MOSCOW -- This is no time for blustering in the Caucusus, not by the president of Georgia, by Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin or George Bush and Condoleezza Rice in Washington. That's because everyone can share the blame for what's been happening in Georgia and South Ossetia.
Rice, whose credentials as a Soviet expert have always been suspect, sat down at a private dinner on July 9th with Mikhail Saakashvili and in effect read him the riot act. According to an article in the New York Times, she warned him not to get involved in a conflict with Russia that Georgia could not win. A senior administration official who accompanied Rice to the meeting, said "she told him in no uncertain terms that he had to put a non-use of force pledge on the table." But here we are, a month later, Rice has gone public, warning to Moscow, declaring that "invasion of another country is unacceptable" and "they can't get away with it." As if our invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan were based on sweet invitations from the ruling clans.
The Times said that in the first five days of the conflict between Russia and Georgia that blossomed into a war, Bush administration officials had warned the government in Tbilisi "not to let Moscow provoke it into a fight -- and that they were surprised that their advice went unheeded." One of those cautioning Saakashvili, a known hot-head with close ties to the Republican Party from his days as a Wall Street lawyer, was Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried.
Whatever warnings of "beware" that the Georgian president heard, apparently went unheeded. The saber-rattling by President Bush, Dick Cheney, John McCain and others egged on Saakashvili with no evidence that anyone in the Bush White House had thought it prudent to talk directly to Putin since the Russian offensive in Georgia itself intensified. It required more than a smile and bear hug in Beijing by Bush.
Keeping in mind that Saakashvili and many of his advisors are English-speakers who know how to spin in the best tradition of Madison Avenue and the Russians are somewhat less adroit, the American press seems to have been engrossed by the Georgian perspective.
The most prudent observations that I've seen have come from Tom de Waal, the Caucusus Editor at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting in London.
He wrote for The Observer last Sunday:
"The Caucusus is the kind of a place where, when the guns start firing, it's hard to stop them. That is the reality of South Ossetia, where a small conflict is beginning to spread exponentially..." de Waal calls the Georgian attack on South Ossetia "a blatant violation of international humanitarian law." Saakashvili, he wrote, "is a famously volatile risk-taker, veering between warmonger and peacemaker, democrat and autocrat. "On several occasions international officials have pulled him back from the brink. On a visit to Washington in 2004, he received a tongue-lashing from then Secretary of State Colin Powell who told him to act with restraint. Two months ago, he could have triggered a war with his other breakaway province of Abkhasia by calling for the explusion of Russian peacekeepers from there, but European diplomats persuaded him to step back. This time, he has yielded to provocation and stepped over the precipice."
None of this should be intended as a defense of what Russia and Putin have done. It may no longer be the kind of police state with which we are familiar from the days of the Cold War. But Putin and a large number of his closest advisors are creatures of the KGB, the infamous secret police of the Soviet Union, and it is not surprising that they react to provocations and threats to their authority in much the same way as they did in the bad old days of the Cold War. But the fact is that Russia is in the midst of substantial change, not politically but economically and socially that I could observe in my all too brief visit in the past few weeks. It is a Russia far different than the one I remember from living there for three years. My only observation is that while Washington always seems to know how to deal with Moscow in blunt, threatening language, it best beware that the times are a-changing. Nationalism and pride are on the march in Russia. Its people are enjoying a measure of free enterprise they would never have had under the knuckle-head regime of the Communist Party.
We need to find a more prudent way of dealing with Russia that is far different from the days of the Cold War in much the same way we have grown accustomed to dealing with China. Only those of us who were watchers of Mao Zedong in the 1950s, '60s and '70s can appreciate how times have changed between Washington and Beijing as we watch the televised affection oozing out of the Olympic Games.
While the saber-rattling of the Imperial President George Bush, Imperial Vice President Dick Cheney, Presumptive Republican Military Industrial Complex Nominee John McCain and others egged on Saakashvili While returning home (2000) Georgian troops from Iraq to re-enforce the Georgian army of aggression.. With no evidence that anyone in the Bush Imperial Presidential White House had thought it prudent to talk directly to Prime Minister Putin since the Russian offensive in Georgia itself intensified. It required more than a smile and bear hug in Beijing by Bush. Georgia
READ CUT AND PUT INTO A TIME LINE - BUSH THE IMPERIAL PRESIDENT IS FORCING THIS!
President Dmitry Medvedev, (42), the new President of the New Soviet Russia since (May), showing leadership ability and Russian Backbone, Medvedev chaired a meeting of his Security Council over the weekend and made a tough, cold, and angry public statement worthy of the former law professor he is; "In accordance with the New Soviet Russian constitution and federal law, I, as president of Russia, am obliged to protect the lives and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are located. We won't allow the deaths of our compatriots go unpunished. You see (The World), thugs (Georgians) differ from normal people in that when they smell blood, it's hard for them to stop, So we (The New Soviet Russia) are forced to resort to surgical intervention
A bit older advice was given by the former Military Industrial Complex Secretary of State under the disgraced Former Imperial President Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger:” Great powers don't commit suicide for their allies.
Tom de Waal, the Caucuses Editor at the Institute for War and Peace writing in the London Observer. The Caucasus is the kind of a place where, when the guns start firing, it's hard to stop them. That is the reality of South Ossetia, where a small conflict is beginning to spread exponentially. . Saakashvili, Two months earlier could have triggered a war with his other breakaway province of Abkhasia by calling for the expulsion of Russian peacekeepers from there, but European diplomats persuaded him to step back. This time, he has yielded to provocation and stepped over the precipice.
The French Defense Minister, Herve Morin, was quoted last year by Reuters as saying, "Despite all the affection and friendship we have for the Georgians...and I've said this to the head of the Georgian government, ,Mikhail Saakashvili, is known as a famously volatile risk-taker, veering between warmonger and peacemaker, democrat and autocrat. "On several occasions international officials have pulled him back from the brink.
On a visit to Washington in 2004, he received a tongue-lashing from then Secretary of State Colin Powell who told him to act with restraint. It can only happen if it is not seen as an additional threat to the New Soviet Russia.
Josef Dzhugashvili Stalin was Georgian, born in Gori and was the one who decided that South Ossetia and Abkhazia should be part of Georgia. The residents weren't happy about Stalin's decision then and they're not any happier about Stalin's decision now. And, the Conservative Republican Military Industrial Complex Right-Wing Neocons, side with Stalin. And, now the (New Soviet) is trying to undo what Stalin did, and not allowing a bad decision to remain permanent. The New Soviet Russia was given a (UN) United Nations, mandate for peacekeeping in the South Ossetia.
The Georgians were fools to rely upon the Washington D, C., Military Industrial Complex, Imperial President George Bush, and less than expert on The New Soviet Russia, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. They should have taken Russia more seriously and negotiated with more intent to settle.
Brdo Castle Brdo Pri Kranju, Slovenia
Bush to reporters
"Can we trust Russia? I'm not going to answer that. I could ask the very same question.
PRESIDENT BUSH: I will answer the question. I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country. And I appreciated so very much the frank dialogue." http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/06/20010618.html
Putins response
Hey good buddy George ... you like eyes ... we go "fishing" http://www.siberianlight.net/2007/08/14/putin-goes-fishing/
Later Putin to Bush ... good buddy george ... you no like eyes. You don't call ... you don't write ... you "invade" Iraq ... I(Putin) "invade" Georgia.
How you like them apples cowboy.
Of course, the average American with an attention span roughly equivalent to the lifespan of a fruit fly doesn't realize that any of that has any bearing on the situation. Russians, however, are not so good at forgiving or forgetting.
To many Russians, Putin deserves the credit for turning the country around and making it livable again (though high oil prices are the biggest reason). Russia is no longer a debtor nation; it is a creditor nation. It's pride was already restored, and it feels no reason to knuckle under to the wishes/demands of a nation that has tried - continuously since the "end" of the Cold War - to destroy it.
If someone can name one friendly act towards Russia from the USA, i'd be interested in hearing about it.
Respect is earned..
Invading a sovereign nation, burning and looting civilian structures and shooting reporters is NOT earning respect..
It's EARNING well deserved international scorn..
Michale.....
and in the US too.
Why not raise your standards and become a citizen of the world.....!!!!!
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What people are saying is that you should NOT start wars as Geogia did.
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Georgia did not start any war. Georgia was handling an INTERNAL matter when Russia invaded.
Those are the facts, whether you choose to acknowledge them or not..
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As for NATO, it is so small compared to the Russians, it would be suicide for it to intervene.
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Yer kidding, right???
You REALLY need to get your facts straight...
The Russian Army has a little over 1 million troops, almost half of which are conscripts and pretty much useless as a viable combat force. The Russian Army is a shell, much as the USSR Red Army was. It is projected that Russia won't have a decent fighting force until at LEAST 2020.
Compare that to NATO which is the COMBINED arms and equipment of 36 different nations, equipped with the most modern of war technologies..
As a viable fighting force, the Russian Army is a joke...
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Virtually all the military commentators agree with that.
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Yea, all the RUSSIAN military commentators...
Don't bring a knife to a gunfight. Get your facts straight...
Michale.....
All Russians ahve to do is turn of the valves. BTW they now also own much of the north african gas up to recently considered as an alternative to russian gas. GAZPROM invests a lot there these days. It would not be good for ruling poticians if their citizens would have to freeze this winter and it would certanly showed on next elections.
The French Defence Minister, Herve Morin, was quoted last yar by Reuters as saying, “Despite all the affection and friendship we have for the Georgians...and I've said this to the head of the Georgian government, it can only happen if it is not seen as an additional threat to Russia.”
A bit older advice from Henry Kissinger:
"Great powers don't commit suicide for their allies."
Georgia has the ONLY pipelines that feed Europe that aren't controlled by Russia.
If NATO allowed Russia to remain in Georgia, NATO would be, in effect, giving Russia the "keys" to every vehicle and aircraft in NATO's arsenal...
Do you HONESTLY think that NATO is going to do that??
Michale.....
georgia attacked somebody, er... its own people by your logic... them facts are clear... so call it start wtf you want... killing and displacing thousands of people from their homes is worth a serious butt kicking...
synopsis: georgia got pawned by bush co.
Stalin was the one who decided that South Ossetia and Abkhazia should be part of Georgia. The residents weren't happy about Stalin's decision then and they're not any happier about Stalin's decision now.
What I want to know is -- why are American conservatives siding with Stalin?
He was Georgian, by the way. His real name was Iosef Dzhugashvili and he was born in Gori and his fellow Georgians still respect his name there.
Sure the Russians are being excessive. But they're the ones trying to undo what Stalin did, and American neocons are wanting Stalin's bad decision to remain permanent.
It's a very ironic situation.
But it's not the Cold War. Politically speaking, Putin is neither a Communist nor a libertarian. He sits in the middle, like a Republicrat or a Demopublican.
Are you saying that "Might makes Right"???
The current Russian Army is not much different than the Red Army of the USSR. Sure, against a helpless and inferior mini-army, it seems all tough and whatnot...
But it wouldn't be able to stand up to a NATO led force...
It's really THAT simple....
Michale....
They are also profesionalising their NCO corps (the biggest problem in the entire organisation) and certain parts of the army (like technical services and sec ops).
They much improved training (better NCO's) and living conditions for their troops thus significantly increased morale and standing of the army in the Russia. The new training was visible in this last expedition. While the same sort of operations in Chechnia were bungled this one went without a hitch and they routed Georgians who expected the ussual soviet style slow and cumbersome response. Russian army now is a bit lenear and much meaner army than they had before.
Russians were also quite loudly warning anyone who cared to listen to what will happen. At the same time (last month) when Georgians and US troops had military excercises Russians were also conducting their military excercises "Kavkaz 2008" it doesn't get louder then this.