I must confess: I don't like Newt Gingrich. He's an insufferable bore. He talks too much. He has an opinion about everything, none of it conciliatory. Most of it in fact is irrational. He is not what anyone might consider to be a deep thinker. While Barack Obama demonstrates leadership abroad, Gingrich is pursuing worn-out ideas that continue to harp on government spending, waste in Washington and the need for unregulated tax cuts for the rich, none of which are on the minds of shoppers at Costco or Walmart.
Consider the opinions of Gingrich on the Belgian Congo; on race relations in the U.S.; about immigration from across the border; or how to treat underprivileged, hungry people. The inference is fairly clear. Gingrich has never been challenged by his all-white panelists on the CNN election platform. None of the presidential candidates who cluttered cable television last week were ready to respond to tough questions. The panel overall was as meek as mice.
After an airing of the past revelations uttered by Gingrich, it is impossible to imagine how many African-American or Latino voters will cast a ballot for him as president. Gingrich is an uncontrollable motor mouth. Yet, despite such flaws, many of his supporters still believe him fit to be a president or world leader..
As Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winning economist of the New York Times said of Gingrich recently "He is a glib speaker, even when he has no idea of what he is talking about." Krugman went on to say "My sense is that he's very good at double think -- that even when he knows what he's said isn't true while he's saying it.
To any reporter who has covered politics from the highest to the lowest level -- and I've covered many including the ill-fated Goldwater campaign in 1964 -- it's clear that Gingrich is tempted to say anything in public once he has access to a microphone or platform. Careless ideas simply roll off his tongue. So outrageous, often times he can shock anyone within hearing distance. Gingrich has disdain for many Americans; not only poor ones, but blacks, gays, Arabs, or welfare recipients for starters. His analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian issue is so absurd and over-simplified you would have to worry if he were elected president.
But Gingrich is not the sole champion of negative thinking in Republican ranks. The tactic may easily come back to haunt him on Election Day, if he gets that far. Having covered enough national politics, instinct tells me that a persistent negative campaign could sink the GOP. On the other hand, I would not be surprised by an Obama victory next November, providing he makes a slight indent in the unemployment and inflation figures. My hunch then is the President could win re-election next year and even by a substantial margin.
The problem for the GOP is that it is devoid of real solutions to cope with the economic doldrums gripping the nation. Moreover, it is trapped in a campaign with such implicit racist implications, it's a miracle that so many of its political experts act as if it they didn't exist.
From election day on, the Republicans have focused on getting Obama out of the White House, no matter the cost. But the president has been savvy enough politically to avoid turning it into a food fight. While every Republican office-holder or candidate seems determined since Day One to defeat Obama; no matter what the president says or stands for; regardless of what positive social policy he proposes and no matter how dedicated he is to reducing the number of American soldiers in Iraq, the Republicans say no.
They act as if they are deaf or blind to the latest polls that show 77 percent of the American people support the president. John McCain, Lindsay Graham and other prominent Republican legislators truck out every absurd excuse for keeping American troops on the ground in a war that literally ended months ago. You could ask how many of their own sons have ever served in Iraq or Afghanistan? But the answer would be insignificant. Having covered wars all over the world and seen body bags ad nauseum, the notion of reporting the number of American families that have sacrificed their sons or loved ones for vague objectives is painful for me.
Aggravating the nightly political discourse, the artificial debates staged by the cable networks are a waste of time. They are tailored to provoke outrageous arguments, so much so that anyone skilled in broadcasting should be demanding that more producers be hired to exercise control over the nonsense. Viewers are never told how difficult it is to win passage of any legislation in a divided Congress. Consequently, the American people have a negative view of government.
While Barack Obama exercises leadership abroad, the Republicans are pursuing worn out ideas that continue to harp on government spending, waste in Washington and the need for unregulated tax cuts for the rich. That's not what everyday shoppers at Wal-mart or Costco are talking about.
As Krugman said of Gingrich, "He's very good at double think -- even when he knows that what he's said isn't true while he's saying it."
It's enough to encourage serious voters to move to Iceland.
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That's probably true; it seems to me that the GOP doesn't really have anything left to offer. There aren't any real policy accomplishments it can point to over the last 30+ years that have made life better for anyone making less than seven figures. Their substantive policy ideas, such as they are, have either proven to be grotesque failures (supply-side economics, pre-emptive war), never actually attempted or accomplished by the GOP while in office at the federal level (limited government, balanced budgets, social agenda) or co-opted by centrist Democrats (welfare reform, health-insurance mandate, free trade).
The GOP is trapped in a combination of 1970s political caricatures about big-spending Democrats, The Welfare State™ and The Liberal Media™, long-discredited 1850's-secesh talk about federalism, and playing on their constituents' old-fashioned sense of self-congratulation and resentment. When I talk to Republican voters, they tell me they vote Republican because some Democratic voter somewhere is getting some undeserved benefit at the Republican voter's expense, and he thinks the GOP will put a stop to it.
It's a coherent message, yes, but it's an election strategy, not a governing philosophy.
Their second policy is "Make sure OBAMA is a one-term President".
Their Third policy is "Protect our RICH Friends at all costs."
None of those two policies actually help anyone except the GOP party itself. I wish People of the USA would unite against this insanity.
The Republicans are great deconstructionists. They've spend their "go to" economic interventionist arrows when taking interest rates to zero after the Kiss the Butt of Wall Street inflated real estate bubble collapsed and kowtowed with TARP which really showed their cards to the public as to where their true alliances reside.
Quite frankly, they do well when there is meat on the table, i.e. in a vibrant economy where pipe dreams can be sown via short term profit incentives.
Now, if elected to the top office, they will have to govern from the ground up. I doubt they can do that and maintain the high ground they've recently assumed in the accouterments of Conservatism.
The bunch in the House, the TEA party, ex post facto and not in decision making loop, claim that they'd have let the banks fail, will cut spending to the bone, cancel unemployment benefits, etc. If that's the mantra they're going to run up the pole, the long lines at the soup kitchens will not play well in the media and by extention abroad.
They know there are sometimes short term setbacks and that they will not win every election, but they feel that long term they have a winning formula and strategy for getting into office and staying there and they are diciplined enough to stick to it.
Let's not complicate things that are simple.
1. The TEA party will once again assert itself this summer.
2. The TEA party will be contrasted by the OWS crowd and the real battle of ideas will begin. TEA party will be asking for less government while OWS will be asking for more.
3. Unemployment will still be a problem for the White House
4. At some point inflation will rear it's head.
5. Europe will continue it's slide putting more pressure on our economy.
6. China's economy is already slowing putting more pressure on our economy.
7. It doesn't matter which party wins the White House next year. If Obama stays it will be because of a scorched earth campaign that will make it impossible for anything to get done. If it's the GOP it's going to be the same.
Net net, We're screwed.
1. Obama will get his second term
2. The Bush tax cuts will end providing a much needed influx for the government
3. This 'make Obama a one term President' nonsense will stop and Republicans (what few are left after America kicks the rest to the curb) will actually; you know, do their jobs
4. The President will be unencumbered without the threat of re-election hanging over his head.
I predict the Democrats will hang on to the Senate. Their first order of business should be to deep six the filibuster rule. I predict the Democrats; much like in 1948, will retake the House.
The bill for all of this partisan Republican obstructionism is about to come due and the final cost will be heavy. But the next four years will be good for America.
Then we can think about getting Senator Elizabeth Warren into the office in 2016.
Actually, the Bush tax cuts DID end December of last year. What you mean is that the Obama tax cuts for the rich will end. Unless he extends them.
Every Democrat that has sat in the White House has gotten the same treatment from the Republicans . With Congressional rules allowing one member to control the voting anything is possible .
Newtie knows that, too, and is milking it for all it's worth.