The Huckabee Distraction and the Real Republican Race

Mike Huckabee's creationism and call for a time-out to honor Baby Jesus will play well in Iowa. But when Republicans get out of the Bible Belt, such declarations of faith are going to be read either as loopy or scary.

The Republican party has a problem. The conservatives' ideal candidate cannot win a general election in today's America. Only those not too closely identified with the Christian right can make a credible appeal to other types of conservatives, moderates, and independents in a national campaign. Yet, only candidates who can run the gauntlet set up by the religious right can win the Republican nomination. After twelve years of Gingrich-Bush dominion, the Republican party has no other base on which to erect an electoral majority. The base will have its way, in some fashion or another.

The Republican frontrunners and the conservative intelligentsia know this. The conservative outcry against Huckabee reflects, in part, a pragmatic assessment that a Huckabee primary victory spells defeat in '08. (It is equally, as Arianna rightly observes, their mounting terror as the chickens come home to roost.)

The real question is, as it has been since January, which candidate can square the circle. On the merits, John McCain, a true conservative with an inexplicable reputation as a moderate, should walk away with it. McCain has antagonized too many conservative interest groups, however, to ever be nominated.

That leaves Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. Each comes with deficits. In this competitive environment, it is impossible to predict who will prevail. But the conventional wisdom favoring Giuliani has substantial flaws.

On the three "Cs" -- conservatism, competence, and character, Romney has subtle advantages over Giuliani. (My next post will look more specifically at Romney's approach to the primary election/general electoral calculus.)

Conservatism: Both candidates entered the race saddled with reputations as social liberals. They have taken opposite approaches to allaying the conservative base. Romney told a narrative of conversion; he has seen the light, and is on principle against abortion and against gay marriage. Giuliani at first tried principle, defending his pro-choice stance and insisting that the Republican party could accommodate different views. That changed to, trust me, I understand politics. While he continues to be portrayed as "pro-choice" in the national media, he has promised to appoint Supreme Court justices who will overturn Roe v. Wade. This is an anti-abortion position for all intents and purposes.

The base must be satisfied, in some way or another, and with either Romney or Giuliani, it will be. Romney has adopted the views of the Christian Right base as his own; Giuliani has made a deal with them. Conversion narratives -- 'I saw the error of my ways and repented' -- resonate deeply among born again Christians. (George W. used this one to handle his youthful 'indiscretions.') Polling suggests Giuliani hasn't won over the Christian right in the primaries, but he seems to have done enough to keep them from defecting in the general election. In sum, Romney and Giuliani have made themselves electable according to the right's social litmus tests. Romney probably has the edge over Giuliani in the primaries. But both have promised to deliver, and there's no reason to doubt they would.

Competence: Both candidates entered the race claiming experience and competence to lead America. Romney's success is fabled, and with the exception of union workers and economic progressives, his career as a talented corporate executive will play well among Americans wearied by Bush's incompetence and worried about the economy. Having established his conservative credentials, Romney is back on message -- even in Iowa -- about how America needs a competent manager to solve its problems. Giuliani has been in politics for decades. His main claim to competence -- his reaction to the World Trade Center attack -- strikes at a deeper emotional level, but it is a more ambiguous one. By comparison with Bush, Giuliani acted presidential during the September 11 attacks. The successes of "America's mayor" are, however, more legendary than real, as any number of New Yorkers will attest.

As chief executives, Romney and Giuliani both amassed mixed records. Massachusetts liberals will tell you Romney's claims about his governorship are inflated. New York firefighters will passionately denounce Giuliani's betrayal of their brethren. Considering the fragility of Giuliani's claim to leadership during 9-11, and the free market, antigovernment bias within the Republican party, Romney has an advantage in the primaries. By everything we know today about Giuliani's ethical lapses, Romney will also be far less vulnerable, if less inspirational, in the general election.

Character. The organizing principle for the grassroots Christian right rank-and-file is "family values." Family values not only encompasses the wish-list of social conservatives on issues of religion, education, sexuality, and the like. It is also a blueprint for the moral life. Candidates should walk the talk of the traditional family. Husbands rule, benignly. Wives follow, cheerfully. Children obey, dutifully. No one is gay. No one has sex outside of marriage. Divorce is a tragedy, but forgiven if followed by a stable heterosexual marriage. Romney has led an exemplary life by these standards. Will family values voters overlook Giuliani's long train of transgressions? Perhaps. But each scandal, and the dense web of personal intemperance, political corruption, and poor judgment they reveal, makes it less likely.

Romney, however, has one insurmountable strike against him with some family values voters. In a word, Mormonism. One in six Americans say they will not vote for a Mormon. That number may be higher among fundamentalist Christians, a group historically hostile toward Mormons.

Though Giuliani maintains his lead, the polling suggests Romney could close in when the Huckabee surge inevitably plateaus. Romney's support has steadily and consistently risen since the race began in January, doubling between then and now in Gallup/USA Today polls. Giuliani's have fluctuated wildly, especially as scandal has followed scandal. Romney will do well, if not win, in the early primary states. Moving into late January and the big states Giuliani counts on to lock up the nomination, he will have momentum. In the past three months, Giuliani's lead over Romney in Gallup's hypothetical two-way match-up has shrunk from 45 points to 20.

The Republican nomination is up for grabs, but I'm betting we'll soon see that McCain and Huckabee can't close the deal. What will a Romney or Giuliani general election campaign and presidency look like? Come March, 2008, this will be the burning question.

Comments

[StephenDedalus82]

A lot of Republicans hate Huckabee. The truth is there will not be a consensus Republican candidate next year. They can't run on Bush's record, the Christian right is in disarray and they don't have any more gay bashing amendments to sell. They're all flawed and the lack of a frontrunner is evidence of that.

Things are much different for the Democrats, who have great candidates this time around. I really can't see Republicans pulling this election off, but I'm kind of scared to see exactly how they'll try. They are vicious campaigners even when they're not desperate.

[Pdubya]

less than 15% of republicans showed up for the last primary...and thats who is being polled for the so-called "national polls". perhaps your next article would give service to the enormous grassroots support that Dr. Ron Paul has: for true conservatives, civil-liberty loving democrats, and intelligent minded independents. surprise of 08.

blue dog democrat for ron paul

[HollywoodBill]

Some excellent points here. Overlooked is what led to the Republican Revolution in the first place. Reagan masterminded the modern Republican Party by taking the Goldwater/libertarian ideals and shortcutting the road of getting the ideals accepted by uniting with the Social Conservatives.

Ultimately the two main factions of the GOP are so different that the bigger question should be how the coalition lasted as long as it did.

Huckabee is not just some flash in the pan--although he obviously won't get the nomination. Rather he represents the Social Conservative ideal that was defeated in 06--Rick Santorum. Social Conservatism only plays well in the Deep South and the Bible Belt states. It was trounced in PA and with Blackwell in Ohio. It is essentially a dead end for the GOP.

While McCain is gaining support of the libertarian and Rockefeller Republicans, the problem is that he cannot win the votes of the social conservatives. Calling Falwell and Company "Agents of Intolerance" in 2000 probably finished him eternally with the Revival Tent Republicans.

And that's why the GOP is going to have to burn down to the ground in 2008 and start over. Maybe this time they'll listen to the words of Barry Goldwater: "If they suceed in establishing religion as a basic Republican Party tenent, they could do us in."

[drblack]

Republicans are doomed, they have destroyed Freedom , prosperity, the rule of law and the Constitution in America and now they will themselves be destroyed.
Now if only some real Freedom fighters can replace the sell-outs in Congress the American people may get the country back.

[rabun666]

I just saw Hucksterbee while at Liberty University, of Falwell infamy, declare himself as Christ and that it was prayers in his behalf that is catapulting him into being the Republican party's choice for President. This was a paid ad by the Hucksterbee campaign presumably approved by Hucksterbee. The Bible addresses this very matter as this is what the anti-christ will do. The anti Christ does not mean against Christ but instead of Christ, claiming to be Christ and pretending to be Christ. The anti-Christ precedes Christ and will deceive the vast majority of those pretending to be Christians. He will be aided and abetted by business[MSM, education[Liberty University], religious hypocrites and government interests. Hucksterbee's Taliban credentials are irrefutable. This is one step beyond Bush. Hucksterbee is just as much an addict as Bush, Hucksterbee's addiction being food. Just as addictive and deadly as drug and alcohol addiction, except that one cannot be arrested for driving while eating.All addictions are rooted in the same causes. Hucksterbee has eliminated 12 years of his life, when he was a baptist minister, by destroying or preventing all records of his sermons destroyed with one exception. One church has kept the information for the purpose of extracting money from Hucksterbee not to make them public, in my opinion.

[IdeasNotMoney]

Only by breaking the iron triangle of big money, special interest lobbyists, and the legislation they buy, can sovereignty be restored to the American people.

Only John McCain can make this happen.