The Ayatollah's Tipping Point

SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND - Once the crowds were in the streets in Tehran, one could, if one knew the script, begin the countdown: if today there are mass protests, tomorrow there will be threats of retaliation in the name of "national security." By day three, we see journalists imprisoned and media shut down; day four, bloody reprisals against protesters by secret police; day five, arrests of key opposition figures. Sure enough, right on schedule, each of those steps was set in motion in Iran, within the space of a week.

These same 10 steps occurred in Thailand in 2006 -- in 10 days, and in seven days in Myanmar a year later. The script is so well known by now among the world's would-be dictators that it can take less than a week to lock down a country.

None of this should surprise anyone anymore. We should understand that this time-tested script for establishing or enforcing a dictatorship exists -- but so does a counter-strategy for opening up a closed society. When a would-be dictator -- anywhere, any time, on the right or the left -- wants to close an open society or initiate a crackdown against a democracy movement, he follows 10 classic steps: invoke a threat, create secret prisons, develop a paramilitary force, establish a surveillance apparatus, arbitrarily detain citizens, infiltrate citizen groups, target key individuals, go after journalists, call criticism "treason," and subvert the rule of law.

Once these steps are put in place, it is extremely difficult for a pro-democracy movement to survive -- but not impossible if counter-pressure is applied correctly. History shows again and again -- throughout the modern era and around the world -- that people do indeed have some powerful tools to reestablish an open society if they were willing to use them.

The counter-script for establishing or restoring pro-democratic conditions consists of more mass protest; the appearance and display of resistance symbols; the emergence of enough spokespeople throughout society that all of them cannot be arrested at once; overt civil and covert disobedience, at every level of society, that brings the economy to a halt; withdrawal of support by lawyers and judges for the regime's decisions; international sanctions tied to human rights and clean elections; the refusal -- tricky but not unattainable -- of many soldiers and police to fire at unarmed citizens; and, finally, when the rule of law is reestablished, serious prosecutions of the defeated regime's ringleaders.

When we see footage of nonviolent protesters being brutally beaten by police and militia members, it is painful to deliver the message that, if history is a guide, continued street protest will make the difference between Iran being like Myanmar or, possibly, like Czechoslovakia. Time and again, when mass street protest has been sustained for more than a week or two, a regime -- even one that has begun beating and arresting protesters -- eventually finds it practically and psychologically difficult to sustain its hold.

Street protest, if it can sustain itself for more than that crucial first week, has an effect that is both tactical and emotional; mass protest during the French Revolution made it clear to the courtiers that this rebellion would be too profound to quell in the usual manner; street protests in the American colonies, in the face of arrest or worse, made the colonies ungovernable even before George III waged a costly, unpopular war. In Estonia in the 1980s, the small, illegal protests that surrounded the public singing of the banned national anthem grew, and Estonians were emboldened as their numbers swelled by the thousands daily.

In the United States, street protests helped bring the Vietnam war to an end, and the mass protests of the civil rights movement showed that, as Martin Luther King, Jr. put it, "business as usual" could no longer continue. According to King, disruptive mass protest exposes the tension that has been hidden or ignored, so that it can be addressed. (Ironically, such protest is now largely illegal in the US because of a systematic effort to deter it through a thirty year process of over-permiticization).

Iran's citizens -- and all people longing to resist a tyrannical government or to protest in an established democracy -- should bear the lessons of history in mind. Protest that works must disrupt business as usual and, ideally, stop traffic. Iranian citizens have shown great courage, and they would do well to continue pouring into the street and sitting down, lying down, or standing still. Unless a regime is willing to start machine-gunning its citizens, peaceful, steady, long-term disruption of "business as usual" always works.

What the West can do is apply pressure on Iran -- and on other governments in the future -- to assure and account for the safety of protesters. Natan Sharansky said that this tactic -- the West tracking and demanding accountability for the treatment of individual internal dissenters -- helped break up the Soviet Union. In this crisis, the US president should form a united front with human rights groups, which can advise him exactly how to follow, sustain, and support those Iranians who have been or may yet be arrested, or worse.

Barack Obama says that America "stands with" those who support free assembly. That will be welcome news to people living under dictatorial regimes installed and propped up by the US, and to the opposition leaders and journalists languishing in US-supported prisons in those countries for having engaged in just such protest. But it is a start. What a real revolution it would be if the Western democracies did indeed begin to frame their foreign policies with human rights and democratic processes as their benchmark.

Naomi Wolf is the author of Give Me Liberty: A Handbook for American Revolutionaries.
Project-syndicate.org

Comments

[Skepticat]

In all successful revolutions the trick is to keep the pressure on and don't let up. If the protests stop it becomes progressively easier for the theocrats to consolidate power and crush the remaining dissidents. Hope the beleagured citizens of Iran get to read Ms Wolf's excellent comments.

[Retrofuturistic]

Funny how when she kept talking about the "Ayatollah", I just kept thinking of Bush, Cheney, and their Christian cohorts and the ten steps that have already been enacted here, with the amazing and unbelievable permission of the American people. Why we are not all in the streets right now, I do not know....

[Mark Mack]

It's sad that in the United States, "street protest" that "brought" an end to wars or "highlighted" the quality of social movements, appear to be in the past tense.

[FirstBiteBooks]

I second that. What really would make people in the U.S. nowadays to organize such protests?

[AbstractImp]

Starvation.

[NomadicView]

Obama needs to put pressure on both Sarkozy and Merkel to restrict trade with Iran immediately. As usual European leaders make pretty speeches about respecting human rights while, at the same, providing Iran with the means economically to oppress its citizens.
According to Matthias Kuntzel's report http://www.matthiaskuentzel.de/contents/the-tehran-berlin-axiss)
Amid these politically uncertain times, business relations between the two countries (Germany and Iran) are strong. After slowing between 2005-2007, German exports surged 13% in January 2008. With €3.6 billion of goods going to Iran last year, backed by €500 million of export guarantees from Berlin, Germany is the world’s second largest exporter to Iran, and its products crucial for Iran’s economic survival.
According to the German-Iranian Chamber of Industry and Commerce, “75% of all small and medium-sized factories in Iran are equipped with German technology.” As a result, “Iran is certainly dependent on German spare parts and suppliers,” as Michael Tockuss, at that time the director of the Chamber, told German weekly Focus in 2006. This dependency means that a German-Italian economic embargo might be enough to paralyze the Iranian economy within a few months.

[FirstBiteBooks]

"Obama needs to put pressure on both Sarkozy and Merkel to restrict trade with Iran immediately."

Obama can't solve all the problems in the world and we should stop assigning him supernatural powers. The question is what you and I can do in this situation. Continue blogging?

[NomadicView]

I am not sure if you were being sarcastic or not but, I would agree with your basic idea. I used Obama as an example only because he is my president and I, perhaps wrongly, assumed most readers to be American. But each nation's citizens should put pressure on their own respective leaders. Blogging? Sure why not? Writing to companies doing business in Iran? Ok. Let's give it a try. But making speeches against the regime on one hand, while encouraging trade through loans and other incentives is hypocritical in the extreme.

[Kaviraj]

sanctions do not work. if they did, teheran would already be on its behind and the people would be free. see what sanctions have done so far - nothing at all. protest as Naomi proposes works best.

[NomadicView]

Protests are fine as long as other people are risking their lives. Protests are great as long as other people are being arrested and imprisoned. However, when it comes to sanctions, which have been far from comprehensive in any sense, it is business as usual. Europe, especially Germany, has not only failed to restrict trade with Iran but has sought to become a "strategic partner" with Iran and has become its second largest exporter.
To say that sanctions have had no effect is incorrect. Iran is facing economic hardships despite record setting prices of oil. In any case, sanctions as a tool are not meant to bring down a regime, but can be used to restrict its power by forcing it to make difficult policy choices. This is particularly true in the Iranian case, which has bought its support and loyalty from the poor through so-called government programs.

[kwinyan]

Thanks for being so comprehensive with the history of revolts, recent and distant, and also for including the lack of a consistent perspective in our domestic and foreign policy with protests. Yes, the concern for people rising against unjust policies and actions seems absent in US propped up governments. And the over-permiticization that was mentioned occurred during the Bush years with increased restrictions on demonstrations and roped-off "free speech" zones. If only the concerns for Iran were extended in a consistent manner to other settings and especially, closer to home.

[dexxjones]

we should already be marching in the street to banish the corporations and their bribery from the governance of our country. every day the corporatations make life even more difficult for the great mass of us.

we should start with bank of america with its gotcha fees and fleecing of the elderly. let the president of citigroup sit in his tower waiting for it to come for him.

[propitiousmoment]

I would love it if everyone refused to go to work for any corporation. Talk about disruption. What could anyone do to make them? We would get some serious reforms very very fast.

[lapdogs]

For those trying to keep up with the "news" on Iran, go to Google Maps and check off YouTube and other parameters.

Search for Tehran and you should get a number of YouTube hits.

The Media may tell you they have been kicked out but the YouTubers haven't been.

[lightningbolt]

A massive protest that disrupts business as usual in DC is needed now to stop the bankers from looting the treasury. The government doesn't seem to care that it is being looted so it won't stop it.

[Khirad]

Thanks Naomi, I thought of your past work with all this, glad to see it here dealing with the situation at hand.

[Muttonchops]

The protesters could bring the government down by just keeping up a steady but low level of public disturbance continuously; and I mean 24 hours a day, every day. A number of groups of a few protesters each causing brief but noisy confrontations at various random points around Tehran would soon wear down the police as they raced from spot to spot, often finding the crowd already gone when they arrived.

The protesters wouldn't have to be very organized to do this, just do what the're doing now but with smaller and more more scattered groups. Some could rest while the others are at "work." The point is to never let up the pressure, never let the police forces rest. It would just be a matter of time.

[stpmdn]

Great article. I really do think sanctions based on human rights violations and general strike will bring this regime down. One thing Iranians are really good at is revolt.

[roshni]

Naomi:
Great article and I applaud the tenacity of the protesters.
I wonder what you think the role of strikes could be in this situation. If the oil workers, in particular, were to strike, I think that would be a major development.

[nefertiti]

The Iranian People voted for Ahmadinejad , but Mussavi who does not believe in the basics of Democracy disputed that and threw tantrums . Sure , Mussavi has supporters in rich Northern Tehran and among the the rich Merchants and students , but Ahmadinejad has the support of ALL the country mostly the poor and the Middle Class which form the majority of Iran . Ahmadinejad a guy from a humble background put the poor as his priority , and that s why they support him. Mussavi and his twitters supporters (many zionists ) can not go against the Majority , the west can not interfere in elections , when the results dont suit their agenda (like they put a deadly siege on Gaza when the people voted for Hamas ) Leave the Iranian people alone to choose their own leaders , enough is enough , try and aim for Peace and stability in the Middle east and not more sanctions and wars .

[Ozarks]

You claim, based on a pronouncement two hours after the polls closed that "The Iranian People voted for Ahmadinejad". Sure, just like Mark Twain said, "figures lie and Liars figure". For the math Challenged - you can't count 24 million hand ballots in 2 hours bud.

[bigmind]

I see we have an Iranian troll with us, or at least an Ahmadinejad spporter, maybe paid to promote his propaganda. Remember, though, Nefertiti, that Huff Post is citizens' media, not corporate media, with thinking citizen journalists participating, and we are somewhat likely to recognize your outpourings for what they are.

[roshni]

Nonsense. The elections are clearly fraudulent with more votes than registered voters in some places. Then there is the ruthless crackdown on demonstrators. The people did not vote for Ahmadinejad.

[stpmdn]

Are you kidding? If a real election would take place in Iran where ANY Body was able to run for president and the elected president had all the power I'm willing to bet that Ahmadinejad would get less that 10 percent of the vote.

[mcmchugh99]

They did not choose their own leaders in this case because their votes were never counted. The "results" were simply made up out of thin air. Right now, the regime is ruling through state terror and Gestapo methods, which is the only way it can stay in power, but that will give it only a temporary reprieve.

[Sam Dodson]

Naomi - I really enjoy your perspective on the similarities of various police states cracking down. I'm curious what you would think about doing this on a local level? I've moved to NH as part of the Free State Project, where we are doing things to increase personal liberty and freedom. I was arrested for filming in a public lobby of a court house, and held indefinitely without trial because I exercised the right to remain silent, until they gave up and released me 58 days later. We have other activists giving speeches to the government workers while paying $2,700 property tax demands in one dollar bills. We are creating liberty oriented TV, Radio internet, and Print media all in the small town of Keen, NH (Population 25,000)

With time, our numbers continue to grow, and we will be an increasing thorn in the side of the local government. Any insights on how they might respond?

[apduncan1]

You'll be called a commie or the current bogey man name: a terrorist.