Brzezinski: Russia's Invasion of Georgia Is Reminiscent of Stalin's Attack on Finland

On Sunday I talked with Zbigniew Brzezinski, the elder statesman who was national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, about the Russian invasion of Georgia. He long tangled with Soviet power. Now he takes on Putin:

Nathan Gardels: What is the world to make of Russia's invasion of Georgia?

Zbigniew Brzezinski: Fundamentally at stake is what kind of role Russia will play in the new international system. Unfortunately, Putin is putting Russia on a course that is ominously similar to Stalin's and Hitler's in the late 1930s. Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt has correctly drawn an analogy between Putin's "justification" for dismembering Georgia -- because of the Russians in South Ossetia -- to Hitler's tactics vis a vis Czechoslovakia to "free" the Sudeten Deutsch.

Even more ominous is the analogy of what Putin is doing vis-a-vis Georgia to what Stalin did vis-a-vis Finland: subverting by use of force the sovereignty of a small democratic neighbor. In effect, morally and strategically, Georgia is the Finland of our day

The question the international community now confronts is how to respond to a Russia that engages in the blatant use of force with larger imperial designs in mind: to reintegrate the former Soviet space under the Kremlin's control and to cut Western access to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia by gaining control over the Baku/ Ceyhan pipeline that runs through Georgia.

In brief, the stakes are very significant. At stake is access to oil as that resource grows ever more scarce and expensive and how a major power conducts itself in our newly interdepedent world, conduct that should be based on accommodation and consensus, not on brute force.

If Georgia is subverted, not only will the West be cut off from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. We can logically anticipate that Putin, if not resisted, will use the same tactics toward the Ukraine. Putin has already made public threats against Ukraine.

Gardels: What, if anything, can the West do to contain this revived Russian behavior?

Brzezinski: Not only the West, but the rest of the international community, must make it clear that this kind of behavior will result in ostracism and economic and financial penalties. Ultimately, if Russia continues on this course, it must face isolation in the international community -- a longer range risk to its own well-being.

The United States, particularly, shoulders the major burden of mobilizing an collective international response. This invasion of Georgia by Russia is a very sad commentary on eight years of self-delusion in the White House regarding Putin and his regime. Two memorable comments stand out. First, when Bush first met Putin and said he looked into his soul and could trust him. Second, not long ago, Condi Rice claimed that American relations with Russia have never been better in history!

Gardels: John McCain has already suggested that Russia be expelled from the G8. Is that something you would contemplate?

Brzezinski: The G8 is an impotent fiction anyway. But It has to be much more than
that. It has to be a concerted effort on all levels -- at the United Nations, in the Atlantic Council, in the EU or in NATO, in consultation with the Japanese, the Chinese and others -- to convey to Russia that, whatever grievances it may have, it cannot resolve them by a deliberate policy of dismembering an adjoining state and
trying to obtain political domination over it.

Gardels: Is the West obliged to help Georgia resist the Russian attack with some kind of military support?

Brzezinski: The question is not what obligation the West may have at the moment. The question is about our longer term interest. If a Russia, which misjudges its power and its capacities embarks now on a blatantly nationalistic and imperialistic course, we will all suffer.

Therefore it is all the more important that Russia be stopped now by mobilizing a concerted, global effort to oppose and condemn the Russian invasion. Ultimately, that could lead to economic and financial sanctions, though one would hope that other Russian leaders, including its business elite, will have cooler heads and be more aware of Russia's own vulnerabilities. Russia is not ready to sustain a new cold war.

Gardels: Should the Atlantic Alliance urgently induct Georgia into NATO as one response?

Brzezinski: The West desisted from extending the NATO "membership action plan" to Georgia -- a preparatory stage for becoming a member -- out of deference to Russian objections. It is now clear that the deference shown to Putin, in the face of his obvious ambitions, has been counterproductive. In view of what has happened, NATO ought to extend the membership action plan to Georgia, therefore reinforcing the commitment NATO made in Bucharest last March
to the effect that NATO intends, at some future point, to include Georgia.

Gardels: You haven't mentioned Dmitri Medvedev, the the Russian president, once, but only Putin. Does Medvedev have any function in this?

Brzezinski: As much to do with it as the formal head of state of the Soviet Union in 1950 had to do with the running of the Soviet government. Does anyone remember his name? But the real ruler of the Soviet Union had a name that most still remember -- and it rhymes with Putin.....

Comments

[Hirnlego]

Here's another idea that Brzezinski should find familiar. USA backed Georgia in its proxy war against Russia and cynically exploit the people of Georgia by doing so. The president of Georgia seems to talk of a new world order and Zbig seems to be part of that gang.

[chappelforpres]

Crap. These Sudetenland / Finland comparisons ring hollow. You have to delve much deeper than Brzezinski's superficial comments to understand the historical complexities that gave rise to Stalin's invasion of Finland ( a former Czarist ally and harborer of White Russian opponents of early Bolshevism) or Molotov's Non-Aggression Pact, dismembering Poland thus helping to mollify deep seated Soviet suspicions regarding Hitler's ultimate intentions. Like us, Russia was looking to establish "defensive perimeters", gaining a measure of breathing room from her traditional enemies.

We desperately need new minds for new times. Forget this Roman like neocon infatuation with American legions and their mercenaries ringing the globe. Isn't anyone listening to todays' "yellow press" as they bewail the loss of America's "regional authority" in the Black Sea & Caucuses. A new call to anti-soviet arms and a third global flash point. Are you kidding?

George Bush might have looked into Putin soul, but that didn't dissaude him an iota from pouring money, arms, and advisers into these "western style democracies" in an effort to cower Russian intentions and thwart a resurgence of Russian nationalism. How many times in the last 100 years have American forces entered one South American country after another to support the most destestible despots in order to thwart Bolshevism, Communism or Socialism and maintain the status quo of our various "Banana Republics". "Do unto others, as you would have them do unto you."

[CaptainVideo]

Both the old cold warriors like Brzezinski and the neocons are just salivating at the prospect of brining back the cold war nuclear confrontations with the Soviet Union. We escaped a nuclear holocaust during the cold war by the skin of our teeth. This time we may not be so lucky. The movie "The Day After" showing the outcome of a nuclear war played on cable T.V. recently (I don't recall which channel). Before we restart the cold war, everybody should see this movie.

[CaptainVideo]

Finland did not start the war by attacking a region friendly to Russia whose cause the Russians were supporting. The bottom line that needs to constantly repeated is that Georgia started this by attacking South Ossetia.

[Conejo]

I am an Obama supporter but I'll have to admit that John McCain has been out front on this Russian-Georgian conflict in support of Georgia. I think that is good. I hope that Obama will "get it together" real soon and start jumping on the band wagon in support of Georgia. So far he has been a "milque toast."

I am also a big supporter of Zibegniew Brzezinski. He has the coolest and most intelligent mind on foreign affairs that there is. He is right in most everything he says. Obama would be wise to listed to every word this man utters and follow most of his advice. Maybe he could even find a place for him in his campaign.

[CaptainVideo]

McCain's foreign policy advisor, who writes McCain's speeches on this, has been in the pay of the Georgian government until recently, and the advisor's partner is still in the pay of Georgia. McCain is representing the interests of Georgia here, not the interests of the United States.

Let us hope Obama does not join the lemmings is picking a fight with Russia over this. We need to remember that Georgia started this by attacking South Ossetia, which has been functionally independent of Georgia since 1992.

There is a rush to judgement in favor of confrontation with Russia going on here just as there was with regard to Iraq before we invaded.

[CaptainVideo]

Zibegniew Brzezinski is living in a cold war time warp.

[Hirnlego]

From what I've read Zbig is an advisor for Obama..

[brooklyncitizen]

Why isn't there any mention on Georgia's initial aggression and attack in Ossettia?It was in response to this that Russia sent in tanks into that province and other parts of Georgia to protect its peacekeepers, some of which were killed in the Georgian attack.

Georgia is a close ally of US unlike the province of Osettia and other province that is allied with Russia and that Georgia has been trying to bring back under their rule and countering O's separatist movement.
Part of this is Georgia's positioning to be part of NATO.

[bayside]

Nathan, You seem to have a very gullible mind..You acually believe our media..If you really listen and really want to know the truth, nowdays you have to dig. I saw on fox (I think)of all places a 12 year old girl interviewed by sam sheperd..He was going on and on about russia invading georgia and how did she feel. That little girl told him that georgia invaded first killing many of her people and killing a barrack full of russians peacekeepers..Sam could not keep spouting lies after that and cut her off. You need to ask yourself why georgia listened to our george and invaded , and why when we have satilites, george did not tell georgia russia was massing..I suspect george thought we are busy with china games and wouldnt notice georgias invastion .Course the oil rich caspian sea ,oil line ,for a oil man in the US with time running out .just might be the why...

[geeksanta]

Ad hominem on Brzezinski do neither diminish the brilliant accuracy of his observation nor facts on the ground. Russia's aggression is plain for everybody to see and it is a turning point in the geo-strategic situation in the region, a stark challenge to the U.S. and NATO. Without intelligent, tough, and effective response by the next President, the price of inaction and projection of weakness can only increase.

Past Democratic presidents Roosevelt and Kennedy showed what can be achieved when the nation is inspired. The U.S. was able to politically and militarily perform in such a grand scale that the claims of current commitments stretching the U.S. force to its limits sound laughable.

For understanding fundamentals of the U.S. influence we can study the famous Russian scientist Pavlov. He demonstrated a method with his dogs regarding learning. This applied to the U.S. security means repeating the message that messing with America is costlier than what it is worth. This is what the U.S. has been teaching the world for the past 60 years. The message works when people like Mr Putin refrain from invading small countries allied with America. The nature of Bush foreign policy has contributed to unlearning this basic message. The next President needs to undo this damage. This is why it is so fundamental to the U.S. security that the next President can inspire.

[VANDERGRAAFK]

As far as Zbig goes, so good. The problem is that however much international condemnation the West may stir up against the bully tactics of Russia the fact remains that Russian troops are pressing forward in Georgia and defining their exit strategy that maximizes Russian advantage and leaves the Georgian state broken and in regime change.

Too often the lack of military assets has been bandied about as if it some sort of holy grail. Yes, the American ground military is overstretched and overcommitted in Iraq and Afghanistan. But, American naval and air forces are not. True, NATO is committed to the money pit that is Afghanistan, but NATO has the ability to forward base air units to Turkey in order to present a credible military threat.

It's time to meet 19th century bully tactics with 19th century strategies. An ultimatum ought to be issued to Russia that if its forces to not withdraw back to the status quo ante of 6 August 2008, then Russia risks air attacks for its exposed forces. NATO could also threaten to seal the tunnel linking North and South Ossetia in order to cut off reinforcements and engage in a complete naval blockade of Abkhazia.

Of course, the point of an ultimatum is to extract the desired behavior without resorting to military force. That's why it must be credible. Unfortunately, the Bushidos are in charge and they have the credible of a whimpering baby.

[bluemike]

Brzezinski is a master manipulator in the same league as KIssinger. I would trust the opinion of neither. Both should be put to sea in a beautiful pea-green boat.

[CaptainVideo]

The Republicans do not have a monopoly on war mongers. The Democrats have people like Brzezinski and Holbrooke.

The bottom line is that Georgia attacked first. Of Georgia had not attacked South Ossetia, the Russians would not be in Georgia.

[Hirnlego]

Zbig worked with Carter who gave the Russians their own 'Nam with Afghanistan.

[QueenOfViolets]

So this is all about what the superpowers want.

What about what the Abkhazians and South Ossetians want?

If this is about democracy, then let's hold an internationally supervised referendum and allow the citizens of these regions to act like free and democratic people and vote for which country they want to join.

These are human beings in these disputed regions. They're not just pawns in some chess game in the minds of foreign policy wonks.

These human beings deserve the right to determine their own fates democratically.

[randyjet]

Zbig is the reason our founders made it a requirement that only native born Americans be elected President. He is Polish mostly and would want the US to attack Russia for any reason, and would use ANY excuse to do it. He forgot that the Soviets were invited into Afganistan by the government that the US RECOGNIZED and it was a Communist government for many years.

Instead, Zbig said that the government has to go and armed, trained, and financed Bin Laden and the Taliban. They were so grateful, that we got the Embassy bombings in Africa, bombing the WTC, and then 9/11. Zbig was so successful and smart that instead of the communist goverment in Afganistan, we got the Taliban! Think that was a good trade? Thanks!

[QueenOfViolets]

I think you're right. There is a kind of Post Soviet Stress Syndrome where people are fully possessed by their traumatic memories of Soviet authoritarianism and can't let go of the past one tiny bit.

I hope our response to this crisis isn't fully determined by these wild emotions.

I'm tired of the influence these unhealed trauma survivors are having on politics in this country.

Heal thyself, Zbig. Get over it and start using reason and empathy instead of unbridled post-traumatic hypervigilance.

[sposton]

Yes, Russians are potentially dangerous. They are best kept in check by an active engagement with the rest of the world that insists on the rule of law and strengthened international institutions. The US and NATO have repeatedly send clear signals to Russia that they do not believe in international law and do not care what Russian think about NATO expansion. The US invaded a sovereign nation of Iraq under completely false pretenses. Should we be surprised Russia is willing to use force in what they consider their back yard? And what is the legal difference between Kosovo and South Ossetia? I think we would have a lot more gravitas when speaking to Russians if we did not have war criminals in our own government.

"In effect, morally and strategically, Georgia is the Finland of our day."

One big difference is that Finland actually held the Soviet advance for months before the Moscow Peace Treaty was signed in March 1940. Soviets had 4 to 1 advantage in men, 200 to 1 advantage in tanks and 30 to 1 in aircraft. Fins inflicted enormous losses on Russians. Fins ended up losing less than 10% of their territory. Perhaps Georgians should have gotten military advisers from Finland or tiny Slovenia on how to organize territorial defenses instead of the US. It seems to me Georgian military was ill prepared in every respect.

[arvay]

Brzezinski is letting his Cold War mentality get the best of him. I suspect also his Polish origins. I'm of Hungarian ancestry, so I understand his fear of Russian aggression, but the world has changed dramatically since Brzezinski served.

NATO is an anachronism, and should have been disbanded when the USSR collapsed. Russia disbanded the Warsaw Pact, pulled its forces out of eastern Europe and pulled its aggressively oriented troops off its own western borders.

Extending NATO eastward is quintessentially stupid and a clear provocation to Russia. The US has also derailed nuclear disarmament, preferring to develop new types of nuclear weapons and is trying to install and antimissile system on Russia's borders. More provocations. Right now, Russia and the US ought to be destroying most of our nuclear arms, serving as an example for the world.

Instead, Bush has engineered both military and diplomatic impotence, highlighted by his usual cowboy rhetoric about what Russia "must" do.

Lectures from the Bush mis-administration, which launched a preemptive war against Iraq, which had not attacked us, is comedic and hypocritical. Our reversals in Afghanistan stunningly demonstrate his neocon ineptitude.

We've squandered the promise held out at the collapse of the USSR and the end of the Cold War -- a stable and creative relationship with Russia. For what?

[MagisterLudi]

I suspect also his Polish origins. I'm of Hungarian ancestry,
You would think?

so I understand his fear of Russian aggression, but the world has changed dramatically since Brzezinski served.
Not in Zbigi's mind. He's still traumatized, 80 years later. Ah, lucky for us he has OBa--ma a disciple.
Punish Russia we will, young apprentice. May the White House be with you....

[arvay]

Russia has all the cards. They can squeeze Europe's energy supply, and the Europeans can do -- what? Drill offshore? And will the mighty French armed forces be unleashed?

The Russians can veto the next round of Iranian sanctions, and the resulting spike in oil prices will pour money into their treasury. And we will do --- what? Surge into Iran?

Our incredibly stupid Mideast policy creates numerous things they can squeeze.

Next, maybe, an advanced missile defense system for Iran. Maybe advanced interceptors for Syria. Anti-ship missiles for both nations? The Russians have so many options, while we've boxed ourselves neatly into a no-win choice between impotent screeching and WW III.

We're speaking loudly and carrying a twig.

[NKR]

Brzezinski himself negotiated the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in the mid-90's (according to the Real News Network). Just thought I'd point that out.

[MagisterLudi]

Besides negotiated the pipeline. Perhaps there was a little investment on the side... hmmmm......Is this where the righteous indignation comes from? something to think about.