Post-Olympic Powershift: The Return of the Middle Kingdom in a Post-American World

SHANGHAI -- When scholars from across China gathered here this week in the afterglow of the Olympics to assess their country's role in the world, their pride shone as bright as the waxing Mid-Autumn Festival moon. More than a patriotic triumph, the "best games ever" were seen as a knockout blow against a West on the wane after 500 years.

To those charged with thinking professionally about China's future, the Beijing Olympics marked the advent of a new era in which the Middle Kingdom would emerge again out of the mists of history -- not as a hegemonic superpower, but as the superior civilization in a post-American world.

Whether one agrees with this view or not, it is unquestionably the driving spirit behind the powershift in the world order today and bears a close hearing in the West.

Among the political heavyweights at the third annual World Forum on China Studies, convened in a monumental Stalin-era exhibition hall now dwarfed by a towering sea of neon-rimmed, Godzilla-scale skyscrapers, was Zheng Bijian. He is the former vice-chair of the Central Party School, confidant of the current Communist Party leadership and author of China's "peaceful rise" doctrine.

Zheng argued that China's dream of escaping Western subjugation since the Opium War (1840-42) had finally been realized in the "new awakening" of the last 30 years of "reform and opening up." Now awakened, the whole nation was engaged in sorting through "a hundred schools of thought" about the way ahead in a globalized economy.

Indicative of the civilizational time frame in which the Chinese see themselves, Zheng compared this historical moment to the Spring and Autumn Period (770-476 B.C.) and the Warring States Period (475-221 B.C.).

In the view of this party ideologist, an awakened China had proven the superiority of its way over the grand Western theories of "a clash of civilizations" and triumph of the West at "the end of history" through solving the "riddle of the century" by abruptly lifting hundreds of millions of its people out of poverty and underdevelopment.

This success had proven, beyond any empirical doubt, the neo-Confucian wisdom of Deng Xiaoping to "seek truth from facts" and, step by step, like feeling one's way across a shallow river, "constructing socialism" in tune with local characteristics and rising in peaceful development. This offers the world a third way between the models of conflict or domination that emanate from the Western mind.

The reawakened Middle Kingdom, according to Zheng, "would not be puffed up with self-importance, divorcing itself from economic globalization and modernizing with the door closed." Nor would the new China "belittle itself" with dependence on the West but "act independently with the initiative in our own hands."

This new China, Zheng argued, would resist the path of the rise of the Western powers "with their colonialist plundering of the world's resources in the process of industrialization" as well as the ill-fated paths of the "military nations like Germany and Japan who waged wars to reshape the world."

The new China would also avoid seeking superpower hegemony like the former Soviet Union "under the cover of the so-called world revolution." Instead, based on its remarkable success, the new China would seek an "open, non-exclusive and harmonious" relationship with all others to "mutually open up the route to world development."

Lest the resurgent Confucian sentiments behind this worldview might be lost on the rest of the world, other prominent thinkers underlined the civilizational character of China's project. Zhang Xianglong of Beijing University's philosophy department highlighted the "non-universalist" nature of Confucianism and thus the emphasis on truth being grounded in particular, concrete circumstances instead of universally applicable standards -- whether the Western concept of universal human rights and democracy or the Marxist idea of universal laws of development. Because of its non-universalism, Confucian civilization seeks "pragmatic discourse" with others following their own path rather than seeking to lord it over them.

It is easy to see in this brief summary of the Confucian worldview the basis of all the slogans repeated ad nauseam by China's leaders today -- "seek truth from facts," "socialism with Chinese characteristics," "peaceful rise" and "harmonious society."

Reinforcing Zheng's claim of China having found a harmonious third way, Zhang argues that a "clash of civilizations" or the "end of history" can "only occur when universalist cultures encounter each other or prevail over each other. When two non-universalist cultures meet, there may well be friction; but total warfare that aims at mutual annihilation is generally avoided. When, however, two universalist cultures meet, even though they may compromise and negotiate to ensure their temporary safety, in the long run they are in principle engaged in a to-the-death struggle."

Indeed, Zhang notes, Buddhism and Taoism coexisted for millennia in China. Other scholars even posited that Confucian virtues constitute China's "soft power."

Tan Chung, who for many years was the dean of the Centre for East Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, views the Beijing Olympics not just as the coming-out party for the new China, but for the reappearance of the Confucian sensibility in world affairs.

"The magnificent success of the Beijing Olympics," he says, "objectively marks the transition of the world from the 'geopolitical paradigm' to the 'geo-civilizational paradigm' in which China takes the lead."

In Tan's view, China, as has been the case historically, is not interested in maximizing power through the conquest of territory like a superpower, but in the integration of civilizations through harmonious co-existence.

Tan is particularly struck by the 5,000 years of harmonious coexistence between India and China -- marred only by the 20 years between 1958 and 1978 when both civilizations were infected with Western nationalist notions -- as well as by the fusion of cultures in Central Asia known as "Serinda" or "Indochina" in Southeast Asia.

"In the Western hemisphere," as Tan labels it, "all the brilliant ancient civilizations like Babylonia, Egypt, Greece and Rome have become ruins without being handed down. This was because there was no 'geocivilizational paradigm' among them. The 'geopolitical paradigm' pushed them to scramble for territory and indulge in mutual destruction. The basic difference between Eastern and Western hemispheres lies here."

For Tan, the success of the Olympics will allow China to "bid farewell to the sorrowful feelings of history, discard the pursuit of power and return to its civilizational vocation of advocating a culture of harmony."

He cites the famous adage of Confucius in the Analects that the "Qi" state -- which pursues power -- is to transform into the "Lu" state -- which seeks higher cultural development -- and ultimately transform into the "Tao," or truth-prevailing state. (On the mundane level, Tan already sees that, filled with pride and esteem in the Olympic aura, Chinese are smoking and spitting less.)

Of course, no one need be naive about what the influence of a neo-Confucian China means for Western values in the coming century. For example, Zhang Wei-Wei, famous as one of Deng Xiaoping's favorite interpreters, confidently predicts that as power shifts east, the tired old debate in world affairs about "democracy vs. autocracy" that so irritates the Chinese authorities will, following the highly successful Chinese experience, be replaced by a more pragmatic and less conflictive discourse about "good governance vs. bad governance."

And it goes without saying that the exercise of Confucian authority is not beyond the brutal enforcement of internal harmony against rebellious children, as everyone remembers from Tiananmen Square in 1989.

But it would be equally foolish for the West, whether out of ignorance or cynicism, to dismiss the profound civilizational impulse behind China's rehabilitated self-image. For anyone who cares to look, it is written all over the proud face of post-Olympic China.

Comments

[Aaror]

The western ideals of freedom and liberty are regarded as aberitions in China, not virtues. People who seek these things in China, who try to create disorder and encourage others to do the same are regarded the same way we in the west view anarchists throwing bombs. This is not because the Chinese do not believe in freedom of thought, but because speech should be moderated, change should be slow and measured, unless there is a problem, in which case you remove the head of the government and retain the body (again referring to the mandate of heaven). From time to time, China is conquered from the north (the mandarins, then the mongolians, then the russians). Each time, China has subverted and absorbed it's conquerers by virtue of "superior culture." China did not change during these conquests, they only changed the person at the head of the govenment.
Likewise, in their current dispute with the US, they have graciously put on a facade of capitalism to go with their facade of communism. Do not make the mistake of taking them as anything but a facade. China remains China, and we are just the latest set of barbarians at the gate, who may conquer, but will always be conquered in turn by Chinese virtues.
Whether our virtues are better than theirs is a matter of opinion, but thier seem to be stronger..­.

[Aaror]

Community vs Freedom: In the oriental cultures (not just China), each person is expected to know their place in society, with the objective being all the parts funtioning as a harmonious whole. If the parts are not funtioning correctly, it is the job of the peasants to overthrow the government and rebuild it. Note that while I speak of "place," the Chinese system has always allowed upward mobility, in ways the west would not have understood years ago. A wealthy Chinese family could pay for tutoring for their children, the way peasants could not, but anyone could take the exams to become a mandarin and run the nation.
That said, a person who intentionally causes strife in the system is horrifying to the Chinese, and is punished by the full force of their system, which is regarded as proper by the people.
It is worth noting that this is a culture where Death is preferable to Dishonor.

[Aaror]

For at least 2000 years, China has been governed by the "mandate of heaven," concept. Taking away the religious overtones, the "mandate of heaven," says that if the current government doesn't work, it will be overthrown and replaced from within. At the same time, the actual running of the country has been done by a meritocracy. For most of it's history, Mandarins were chosen based on tests of confucian knowledge, and then promoted based on achievements.
Today, the tests are based on communist knowledge, although you can already see the confucian teachings creeping back in. This is not only in the statements, but also in the way the nation is run. All members of the communist party (and everyone is part of the party in China) in a villiage choose a representative to their regional party conference, who chose a representative to the national conference, who chose the leaders. Despite the "one party," rule, they have effectivly created a federalist republic (like ours).
There are several major differences between the east and the wast, too many for this comment, so I will create a new comment to discuss them.

[santamonica39]

hmm... sounds like this China country may be a potential threat to us down the line. According to the Bush Doctrine, we'd better start bombing them, tout de suite! No time to lose!

[enough-enough]

Amazing, insightful and extremely interesting - so good, we are all too intimidated or too busy to respond.

Thank you very much for a great read

[lynini]

I don't think it is intimidating at all. The problem is that that we always think we are too busy; have we ever asked ourselves what, after all, we are busy with? A very important part of Chinese civilization is to find pure pleasure and joy in life; yes, the "purpose" is to experience the joy, not to dominate or to discourse.

[DarthVector]

I write in opposition to Tan Chung. China's genius is that it comes back and regroups, goes the argument that Tan Chung presents - unlike the West, which he argues seems to squander its development.

But the facts are otherwise. To further explore one example, Egypt fell apart several times for up to 300 years, then regrouped under a new dynasty with cultural continuity. It lasted close to 2,000 years, before becoming Ptolemaic under the Greeks (Cleopatra etc). The vital force of that particular civilization, ingested by the Ptolemaic Greeks, was brought into Rome. We know it as hermetic traditions that underwrite Western mystical thought, the same ones that motivated the Socratics, Platonists, the Aristotelians, the Stoics, the Epicureans and thus the Renaissance. We live in the shade of Roman civilization even today, as Westerners. What about those Obama columns, eh?

Tan Chung thus misses the vital factor of the West in his rush to boost China. He can go on all he likes about the superior homogeneity of Chinese culture, but anyone who has any deep knowledge of Western culture knows that the Western genius DESCENDS FROM Sumeria via Egypt and Greece, and has a long ongoing thread. It is pointless bickering and poinscoring that contraverts his own argument for Chinese "superiority".

Can't we just read each other's books, learn from each other's successes and mistakes, and be done with this bull of pumping "we are better"? We are ALL human, writing the one interlocking human fabric of experience.

[Aaror]

I think you missed the point.
Alexander the Great conquered the known world, and then Macedonia became an unimportant provence.
Rome conquered the known world, and then Italy fell into bickering city-states.
France conquered the known world, and then split into 7 kingdoms within 2 generations.
Spain dominated the known world, and then the Armada was defeated, it is only now recovering.
Great Britain dominated the known world, until the British Empire fragmented, it is now a US protectorate.
The US dominates the known world, but our military is stretched thin and breaking, our currency is weak, and we have debts both public and private up to our eyeballs.
During that entire span of history, China has been a great power...
Now do you understand?

[DarthVector]

I did not miss Tan Chung's point. He is talking about continuity of civilization, and therefore I argue against him. There is a thread running through the West as there is the East.

Take a look here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warring_States_period (Collapse)

here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Dynasties_and_Ten_Kingdoms_Period (Collapse)

here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Dynasty (Mongol rule)

and here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_and_Northern_Dynasties (Disunity)

You will see that Chinese NATIONAL "continuity" is an artifact of interpretation. There have been many many Chinas over the years. Some were not even Chinese.

There were times when China reinvented its identity, and when it collapsed into multiple states. These nations were directly inherited by cultural successors, as Western Rome by the newly-Christianised Visigoths http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//Visigothic_Kingdom).

While you can say "continuity of Chinese civilization", the only real equation is "continuity of Euro-Mediterranean civilization". And as you probably know Aristotle, and live near a building with Roman columns, you'll have to accede that point.

Western continuity under Judeo-Christianism is approximately as old (give or take a century) as Han Confucian society established under the Liu http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//Han_Dynasty)

By the way, you should check out Seleucid http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//Seleucids) and Ptolemaic http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//Ptolemaic_dynasty) history before you argue that Macedonia collapsed after Alexander (whose tutor was Aristotle, btw).

[PhantomAviator]

..

YOur analysis is correct UNTIL you try to say that China has been a GREAT POWER for 500 years.

So when was that 1281-1781? Maybe 985-1451?

Don't be blind. The Chinese "greatness" was GONE by thier own internal politics.
A great nation, by the way, does not have child emperors and Regents. THAT is a recipe for Civil War. And that's what they got.

So yer "great" country, screwed itself and the Europeaons came along and found PLENTY of willing Chinese collaborators for its "international zones".

Read a book NOT printed in China.

..

Idiot.

.

[Blutus]

Define great.

[yappnmutt]

and through all of western history china was still china. that's the point. the two hundred year lapse in its influence is a blip in an incredible history unknown to the western intellect even today. pay attention to the discussion of universalists versus non universalists. if you are western it will determine your fate. if you are a history buff think about what happened to rome, spain, britain and the near future of the USA.

[Blutus]

You seem to think the borders of China have been the same for hundreds of years.

Russia, Tibet, Manchuria, Mongolia might argue with you.

China was still China only if you believe the history written by the Chinese.

Not to mention the amazing amount of internal turmoil throughout Chinese history.
That is the advantage of not dealing with the rest of the world: you are allowed to define yourself and the ones who can argue otherwise are usually not around, i.e. dead.

[mgray80]

Superior civilization? Yeah, what a great place where people still disappear when they speak out, there are reeducation camps, censored internet; they can build a bunch of nice buildings for people to see, but then when an earthquake hits, schools collapse and thousands die; If its so superior go live there comrade!

[Pamk]

hmm kind of sounds like the US

[daphnl]

"sounds like the US"? Please explain..

[iluvcodandwhitepointers]

What a good article. Political theorists of any age and persuasion will look at this and others like it and argue . China is a communist country. Lee Kuan Yew that former leader of Malasia and Singapore and a chinese person, a friend of the west, warns that "you are European and we are Asian".
China has suffered terribly
The average age of factory families in Manchester Cotton spinning areas for that 1850-80 period and on was a little over 17 years of age.
The United States has handed or turned a blind eye to most secrets being passed to China.[eg Los Alomo incident, the scripts of the series 24, the landing of top secret USA plane into China]
Since and during the second world war [ and before re India] the United States has competed with England for a say in China eg the building of the India China Road in WW2 and American Airlines
Burma Kentucky fried Chicken company adverts olympic games "Red is beautiful" "and good" [ being Kentucky Froed Chicken and Red China ]

Susan Schwab told Red China near the opening of the games that she had given Billions [ from which super and bond funds] to China and Chima had better get it right

The USA allies are 80 percent service industry based countries, ie most in employment will be servicing in some way the manufacturing of Asia.
Socialist implies Democratic Socia;ism -Crick. Democratic Socialism is deeply opposed by Communism

[sassafra]

superior? you might thik so, if it weren't for the disasters of their own making awaiting them around the corner in the future.
they've disasterously lopsided their male/female ratio with the one child policy/cultural bias towards sons/easy access to abortion, horribly polluted their environment with long lasting pollutants such as heavy metals, have vast class /population/race disparities, and are grappling with many differing challenges to their centralized communist government's control.
in short, all is not rosy for them either.

[OrganOfThought]

Sex distribution: male 51.53%; female 48.47% (2007)
# At birth: 1.11 male(s)/female (2007)
# Under 15 years: 1.134 male(s)/female (2007)
# 15-64 years: 1.057 male(s)/female (2007)
according to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

Males are a little higher, but I don't see how the civilization is in jeopardy because of this. I would be interested in seeing how this ratio compares to other countries. I know the USA is about 52% women, but how about the rest of the world?

Also if anything, they have reduced class disparity. In the last 20 years they have brought hundreds of millions out of poverty. This is impossible to verify of course, but it is well known how bad the Chinese nation was 60 years ago. People were starving and dying everywhere. Now they have incredible economic accomplishments.

Look at some documentaries about China 60 years ago and then try to explain how badly the Chinese government is doing now? Has any other nation in all of human history accomplished anything close to this?

[daphnl]

"Has any other nation in all of human history accomplished anything close to this?" This sounds subjective unless you substantiate. Many citizens of other countries that also underwent "miracles" in their own right over the last few decades will disagree.

[Morcego]

Yes, the ancient civilization of China passed down through the millenia has much we can all learn from. But so far, New China's record as an internationally civilizing force seems mixed, and the auto-regulating mechanisms that are supposed to be built in to democratic systems to prevent abuses of power and public corruption are weak (although the Internet and rising education levels seem to be helping). On the other hand, who are we (who have allowed the practice of democracy to sink almost to the level of American Idol) to criticize? If we ourselves cannot sustain a society that values the free exchange of ideas and information, and we continue to retreat into religious and parochial dogma, then a more closed (but prosperous) society like China could easily eclipse us in science and learning and all the other things that contribute to a vital modern civilization.

[daphnl]

2 wrongs don't make a right. America has made foolish mistakes (intentional or unintentional), but that does not prevent Americans from having an opinion on other countries.

[DAE]

What goes around comes around. In 1820 China's proportion of World GDP was approximately 35%, greater than Europe and America combined. In 1950 it was under 5%. By 2020 it should be back to 25%. The world is just returning to its pre-industrial revolution equilibrium state.

[LeonBNJ]

China is a new kind of power, but like the 'western' world, they too are commiting similar bad policies.
They try to influence foreign governments go in their favor, disregarding human rights, extracting resources without care to the local enviroment and to do it as cheaply as possible.
Within their own country, they have their 'one child' policy leading to millions of abortions a year, they still allow a cultural concept of a preferance of male children, leading to where in some parts of the country only 8 females for every 10 males. They repress almost all religion or only allow particulary sanctioned and government controlled versions. The country is also becoming far more materialistic and consumers like the 'western' world, with all it's demand for limited resources and long term cultural destruction. They too are going the same road to predition as the west has done for 600+ years.

[DAE]

You state as follows, "It is easy to see in this brief summary of the Confucian worldview the basis of all the slogans repeated ad nauseam by China's leaders today -- "seek truth from facts," "socialism with Chinese characteristics," "peaceful rise" and "harmonious society."

The tone of your statement with the use of the phrase "slogans repeated as nauseam" betrays your prejudice. Listen to American political sloganeering and you will hear similar slogans repeated ad nauseum but I never hear western commentators using that sort of phraseology to characterize American political rhetoric.

[Abe Froman]

I’ll be the first to admit that our political process reeks of soft fascism – that doesn’t make it ok and this should not be tolerated anywhere. I don’t claim to be a China expert but I did have the opportunity to visit the country in the early nineties, lived in Asia, and can claim several native Chinese as good friends (I think that at the person to person level, Chinese are a lot like Americans, more so than many of their Asian neighbors). I feel that historically China has played a significant role in history and the cultural development of civilization, but in the latter part of the past millennium, it lost its way. It is fascinating to watch China regain its footing. At the same time, from the perspective of American idealism, for China to once again become a great nation it must show greater responsibility in its actions. DARFUR – China has influence, use it! I understand most of the arguments (resources, global influence, still developing, western pollution, etc. - always happy to hear a new one), but for China to truly be a legitimate player on the world stage it must ensure that its ideals are not violated by those whom they appear to support. China has great opportunities ahead and both US and Chinese interest are best served through closer alignment, but the future continues to remain uncertain.

The Olympics were great fun, 5 stars, but I’m still waiting for William Gibson’s Shanghai. Cheers.

[Boadicea]

Thoroughly enjoyed reading this. I confess that I've been impressed with China. America, for all her gifts, lacks humility.

[Beachrunner]

"And it goes without saying that the exercise of Confucian authority is not beyond the brutal enforcement of internal harmony against rebellious children, as everyone remembers from Tiananmen Square in 1989."

Well, that's one way to describe running over unarmed kids with tanks.

China is a great example of a "superior civilization"; I particularly like the way they execute thousands of criminals a year, use slave labor to staff their factories, bulldoze historic neighborhoods and displace the people that live there, and pollute the environment to the extent you can't breathe the air.

Superior, indeed.