If you think American politics these days are complicated, try to fathom the depths of China's vastly more opaque political maneuvering. Here is Wei Jingsheng on the subject. Wei, one of China's most prominent dissidents exiled abroad, was sentenced to 15 years in prison in 1979 when he called on Deng Xiaoping to implement the "fifth modernization" -- democracy. He was released from prison in 1997 under pressure from then-U.S. President Bill Clinton and deported to the United States.
Nathan Gardels: The Communist Party's Central Committee has just completed its plenary session. What is the significance of the promotion of Xi Jinping, the vice president? Was there anything notable in this meeting that the world ought to be paying attention to?
Wei Jingsheng: By naming Xi Jinping as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the party leaders have put him in line to succeed Secretary-General (of the Communist Party) Hu Jintao. What does it mean? It indicates the internal fight within the party has been relaxed a little. Xi Jinping was mayor of Xiamen (from 1985 to 1988) and worked his way up to governor of Fujian (until 2002), then party secretary of Zhejiang Province (until 2007), before he became party secretary of Shanghai. All these places are in the economically booming coastal region. In 2009, he was also in charge of an internal party group that sought to suppress liberal intellectuals and non-government organizations as well as further restrict Internet access on sensitive political topics.
The second major issue of the plenum had to do with the economic development plan running up against U.S. pressure on China to let its currency appreciate and the related risk of trade wars because of China's huge surplus.
What is little understood outside China is that while there are separate factions in the Communist Party with respect to political reform -- the reformists and the hardliners -- both factions are in agreement on economic issues. Both factions are hardliners with respect to economic policy toward the U.S.
Despite what some commentators in the U.S. believe, the reformist political faction around Premier Wen Jiabao, including some of China's top billionaires, wants to protect their economic interests and thus strongly resist the appreciation of China's currency. In this respect, they are supported by the hardliners against political reform around Party Secretary and Chinese President Hu Jintao, who also want to protect their vested interests.
Despite this, I believe the majority in the party advocates compromise on the exchange rate and measures to expand the domestic market inside of China So, for the moment, there is a standoff.
Gardels: Premier Wen Jiabao of late, in Shenzhen and on CNN, has been talking up political reform. He's said things like "the people's wishes and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible," that "freedom of speech is indispensable for any country," and that "without the safeguard of political reform, the fruits of economic reform would be lost."
Surely, this cannot be pure rhetoric and must mean something. Is the reform faction in the party gaining strength?
Wei: Premier Wen is a cautious, calculating and seasoned politician. He does not like to stir up conflict. He has managed to thrive inside the party despite the fact that, back in 1989, he accompanied then-party chief Zhao Ziyang to Tiananmen Square to meet with the students on a hunger strike. Yet, he wasn't punished and has risen to his current position.
It seems the custom in recent years within the Communist Party is to speak about reform when you are just about to exit the political arena. Speaking out when exiting power is really part of a bargain to maintain the status of his faction and improve his image among the people.
Besides Wen Jiabao, there are others inside the party who are more interested in political reform. Unlike what most Westerners think, they are a group of people who have handsomely profited from the current system, and they are motivated to protect their gains. At the same time, they know the Communist Party will have a hard time maintaining one-party autocracy in the times ahead. So, they advocate "peaceful evolution." They even formed an official faction last year.
But these political reformers are not the mainstream within the party. The mainstream today consists of those officials who have not yet made enough money for themselves and thus want to keep the current political structure intact as long as possible. They are not for political reform because they suspect that if the "mob" is ever empowered, they will not forgive the party. Since international pressure on human rights in China is so weak these days, this is the absolute majority in control of decision-making in the party today.
Gardels: Premier Wen was saying these things about political reform in the lead-up to the party central committee meeting. Then, in the middle of the process, Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Will this cause a reaction against political reform?
What do you think will be Liu Xiaobo's fate? Will he be expelled like you were?
Wei: For a Chinese dissident to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize is extremely embarrassing for the hardliners within the Communist Party. It is a great encouragement to the reformers. Certainly, it will intensify the struggle between the two.
Given the current balance of power, however, the reformers will lose to the hardliners because those in the middle, feeling humiliated and insulted by this act of the West, will react even more strongly against reform measures. Clearly, the time of the reformers has not yet come.
Also, given Liu Xiaobo's more than two decades of cooperation with the Chinese government, the regime will exploit his status as a moderate to guide people to accept a more cooperative and less confrontational tone against the tyranny of the Communist Party. This will reduce the pressure on the party to change.
It will maintain its rule while people beg for reform. No doubt the large Western companies will welcome this since they believe it will not affect their profits in China and maintain stability. In this they are mistaken. What we will see is a replay of the failure of constitutional reform at the end of the Qing Dynasty. When the opportunities for peaceful evolution are lost, it will mean another revolution.
For now, as the world's second-largest economy, China is very confident. For this reason it is likely the regime will release Liu Xiaobo or deport him -- not because of Western pressure, which was the case when I was deported, but because now the West bows to China and it will do what suits it best.
© GLOBAL VIEWPOINT NETWORK/TRIBUNE MEDIA SERVICES
For example Liu Xiaobo supported GW Bush's war of terror (I bet not many people relize that.) Here's an article Liu wrote in 2004:
http://www.observechina.net/info/artshow.asp?ID=33140
On Bush’s war of terror –
“Bush’s excellent accomplishment in anti-terror, is something Kerry abolutely can not negate”
On the Iraq war –
“Bush adminstration’s ‘premptive strike” strateg is the right choice”
“No matter what, the anti-Saddam war is righteous! President Bush’s decision is a correct one!”
On Islam –
“Thou, we should not view Islam’s teaching on terrorism in the same vein as fascism and communism… but this is obvious: a culture and [religious] system that produced this threat, must be exteremely intolerant and blood thirsty.”
“Without America’s protection, the long persecuted Jews who faced extermination during WWII, probably would again be drowned by the Islamic world’s hatred.”
These, are the words of a Nobel PEACE Prize winner.
Very sinister indeed. They also think taking the money for winning the Nobel Prize makes Liu Xiaobo and his wife traitors.
- Take substantial sums from a foreign government
- Viciously attack the very Constitution of the mother nation
- Demand the abolition of the existing government
Such action would be a serious crime under the laws of most nations. Under FARA in the U.S., the penalty would be 25 to life.
What is good must be universal.
Which government? If you refer to NED, it is a non-profit organization.
- Viciously attack the very Constitution of the mother nation
Please state your facts. Chinese constitution states chinese citizen has the freedom of speaking, assembly etc . Do Chinese have these freedoms indeed?
- Demand the abolition of the existing government
You confused goverment and party. Furthermore, in Charter 08, Liu don't even ask for abolition of CCP. I doubt if you have ever read charter 08 and are here attacking Liu Xiaobo.
Wei is very angry at the Chinese government, which is understandable given his long and wrongful suffering under the Chinese judicial system. But he has now lost perspective and makes democracy in China a personal course. He sounds bitter all the time, just like thousands peasant rebels before him in Chinese history (including Mao before he grabbed power).
Liu Yazhou's works on democracy are printed in papers that are circulated all over China
http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-must-reform-or-die-20100811-11zxd.html
''If a system fails to let its citizens breathe freely and release their creativity to the maximum extent, and fails to place those who best represent the system and its people into leadership positions, it is certain to perish,'' writes General Liu Yazhou in Hong Kong's Phoenix magazine, which is widely available on news stands and on the internet throughout China.
>writes General Liu Yazhou in Hong Kong's Phoenix magazine, which is widely available on news stands and on the internet throughout China.
>which is widely available on news stands and on the internet throughout China.
Liu Xiaobo is in prison for pocketing money from a foreign country(NED National Endowment for Democracy). He is a criminal who was jailed for his crimes not for his beliefs.
Today China has 400 million web users, 800 cell phone SMS users, and just on the web there are over 70 million blogs. They provide a network of instantaneous information disbursal, and lots of useful feedback to the government. Today's CPC is one of the most adaptable and citizen pleasing governments in the world. And that's the way it should be.
The Chinese government seems to be navigating that gigantic nation through some very difficult waters, I'll give them that. I don't think any society can claim such huge advances in so short a time period. I just wonder what will happen when the growing middle class inevitably begins to demand more than just access to goods and services. The middle-class is ultimately the driver of social change in any society.
It's an interesting experiment to watch. It does me proud to see the dragon reawakening after so many centuries of internal strife and western manipulation. However, the time will come when one-party rule is no longer acceptable to the people, that is simply inevitable. It's something programmed into the human psyche. People need to at least have the illusion of choice (like the illusion that is the Republican-Democrat duopoly in the US). When this happens, we'll see how citizen-pleasing the CPC truly is. History has shown that power is a very addictive drug and is rarely given up peacefully or shared equitably.
I thought that was obvious, but I guess us folks outside the US are the only ones who are required to read US intellectuals in school anymore.
This is not a saint - this is someone who took substantial sums from a foreign government (some say US$600K, some say over US$1 million - but either one is more than what an average Chinese can hope to make in a whole lifetime; Liu's wife also made it clear that she is going to keep all that Nobel loot outside the country so as not to benefit the Chinese), AND viciously attacked the very constitution of his nation, and openly demanded the abolition of the existing government.
He is lucky he is under protective custody.
Give me a break with the China-bashing. China isn't invading countries for oil, we are. China has to spend resources to match our defense arsenal so we don't nuke them. The US spends about half of all war spending, China is a relative piker.
The US is the aggressor and boss, not China.
- Xi Jinping
Free Liu!
The TOTAL trade surplus of China is only about $150 billion. America's QE2 alone is close to a trillion dollars. WHICH Is the tail, which is the dog? You tell me.
You can't have it both ways.
The vast majority of Chinese workers remain impoverished.
A Democratic government will offer workers a voice.
Something moderates such as Liu Xiaobo are currently denied.
Whose wages, where?
There is a new power growing in the USA that bodes not well for China. The American party has watched the two American political parties sell this nation into debt with China for funds given at election times by the companies that have used US tax dollars and tax breaks to employ in China over jobs in the USA! Starting in 2013, after the next election free trade will be changed to equal trade. America will level the playing field on sales in the USA. At that point anything manufactured outside the USA, the largest commercial buyer in the world, will have to equal at all points what it would/does cost to manuufactur here. Meaning price equality and moving to China for toys or India for communication will not save the manufactur anything! To Americans it will mean more factories opening, rebuild, retool and reeducate, more jobs and a growth in your ability to earn a fair living. Added to this will be the opening of space to commercial interests, this will start new industries, as the car makers had done and tens of thousands of new jobs. As the lady said,"a little less talking and a lot more action is what is needed." How true!
80% of Americans have already stretched budgets - half of them are under water. So tell them they are gonna have to pay 200 or 300% the prior prices (Made in China) for ALL of their life's little luxuries.
"You crazy??!!" would be the universal refrain.
We'll simply buy our goods from other Pacific Rim countries that practice FAIR TRADE and that don't abuse their workers.
Once you understand the motivation, the rest falls into place.
It'd be embarrassing if that government is not performing, like the chicken without a head Western governments of late. There is nothing to be embarrassed about what the Chinese government has wrought - it is proudly the only polity in human history capable of (and actually did - so we are not talking about mere potential here) lifting 500,000,000 out of poverty in a single generation.
Check the Pew Research polls. See the trends. 87% of Chinese are satisfied with the direction of the nation in 2010 (that's up from 48% in 2002). The nation is united as ever.
http://pewglobal.org/database/?indicator=3&country=45
The few who take money from foreign governments to bad mouth China are simply on the wrong side of history.
Its by the conservative Pew Trust, and it only polled a mere 3,000 from China's massive 1.3 billion.
What brilliant logic!!
Try again.
China is still poor, at $4,000 per capita GDP. The prosperity is only in the coastal areas. Allowing "peaceful evolution" (the code words for foreign funded attempts to destabilize the nation) would in a short time lead to unrest and even civil war.
Until China has per capital GDP of perhaps US$20,000, it should be full steam ahead. Why change when the formula is working? WHAT other political system on earth has China's performance today? Democracy??!!
It's economy will suffer greatly when other nations insist on FAIR trade.
Economy must democratize and develop it's own internal market.
The growth in GDP under Bush was mainly due to rising house prices, because they count the rent you pay yourself as part of GDP. When the price of your house rises, so does your theoretical rent and therefore GDP. But since housing costs (and medical, energy, college, all the major costs) are not counted as part of inflation, real GDP appears to grow, where if they were counted inflation would be about 9% and real GDP growth negative.
Basically true since Reagan: median wages fell even adjusted for the phony official CPI, based on real inflation they plummeted.
The US is the only non-Third-World nation that has lower median wage than when Reagan took over. The average person everywhere else is better off.
ROFLAO, try life as a Chinese peasant.
Do you believe your own pablum?