Will Iran Look More Like Turkey, or Turkey Like Iran?

ISTANBUL -- The effort to forge new forms of non-Western modernity in the Muslim world has pushed Iran into bloody civil strife while Turkey swirls with persistent rumors of military plots against the Islamist-rooted government. The great historical question is whether, at the end of the day, Iran will look more like Turkey, or Turkey like Iran?

As the legendary MI6 agent Alastair Crooke argues in his new book, Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution, the Iranian revolution was a direct consequence a half century later of the forced secularization of the Ottoman Caliphate by Kemal Ataturk. With the superstructure of the Muslim ummah dismantled and replaced with the Turkish nation-state, insurgent religious movements, from the (Sunni) Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to the Shiite imams of Qum and Najaf, moved into the vacuum to reclaim Islam from the shadow of Western modernization.

Paradoxically, Ataturk's whole modernization project is today being recalibrated by the ruling Islamist-rooted (Justice and Development) AK party, which is seeking to reintroduce piety into public life while projecting Turkey as a neo-Ottoman regional power in the Muslim Middle East instead of a mere NATO appendage or European supplicant. At the same time, Iran, the other regional power, is moving in the opposite direction: the Twittering partisans of popular sovereignty are locked in a battle with their theocratic guardians over the legitimacy of power in the Islamic Republic.

What goes around comes around, it seems. The reaction to the Great Transformation of early 20th century modernization may have given rise to what Crooke calls the "Great Refusal" of the Islamist resistance. But now the legacy of the Great Transformation in Turkey as well as the Great Refusal in Iran are facing the reverse challenges of bringing faith back into the public realm on the one hand, and democratizing a religious state on the other.

The historical cross currents are complex. In Turkey, one AK Party leader told me, by way of allaying suspicions about an Islamist takeover, that "without its Western orientation, Turkey would be just another Muslim country." Yet, a publisher friend worries that "without the military guarding Turkey's secular institutions, the Islamists would take over tomorrow." And yet again his 20-something daughter, despite the ever more prevalent sight of headscarves on the street, shrugs her bare shoulders doubtfully at the idea of Turkey ever becoming a repressive religious society like Iran.

In Iran, the very idea of an Islamic Republic, borne out of the 1979 revolution, is coming apart. What we are witnessing is a contest between the Shiite idea of an imamate, where, essentially, God is the head of state, versus the Republic, in which the people rule. What happens to the legitimacy of the state when the people, through their democratic institutions, disagree with God? How can this contradiction at the very heart of the constitutional arrangement of the Islamic Republic ever be resolved?

For all its grumblings and even rumblings, the military that stands behind secularism in Turkey has not so far frustrated the democratic aspirations of the religious resurgence there. In Iran, the Revolutionary Guards that are protecting theocracy have done just that: they have sought to crush the assertion of popular sovereignty.

The clerical establishment aligned with the Revolutionary Guard in Iran won't be easily dislodged from power. Yet, once they've felt their power in the streets, as in 1979, neither will the people accept the suppression of their rights. By reasserting his authority after the election through brutal repression, Ayatollah Khameini has undermined the legitimacy of his rule. It may be a long, slow erosion, but the repression of legitimate aspirations is always the beginning of the end for any system of governance.

For now, the Turkish experiment in creating a non-Western, post-secular order seems more sustainable because it respects the will of the people. That is now the challenge for Iran.

Comments

[CaptainVideo]

The important conclusion to draw from all this is that Turkey should not be allowed to be a member of the European Union. Not only is 95% of its land mass in Asia and its capital is in Asia, but it does not have a European culture. There is a westernized elite in the major cities, but it is a minority that is losing its control of the country.

[Johnathan Plate]

I hate to say this, but if you look at western history the asia minor has always been part of europe. I mean Constantinople was the capital of eastern europe for centuries. Actually you could say that Constatinople was the cornerstone of european socitey.

Oh and the Ottoman's did rule most of southern europe, for a few centuries, hell they marched all the way to Veinna. Seriously Turkey, was part of the central powers in world war 1. And just ask any aussie, kiwi, or brit, what continent Gallipoli is on.
Its a shame that they EU is excluding Turkey. I mean before the fall of the berlin wall, Turkish builders where incoraged to move to germany to work.

too many forget history.

[chariotdrvr14]

You really should take into the account the enormous numbers of turkish immigrants that not only live in most western european countries but their contribution in the rebuilding of europe after WWII. This cultural interplay between immigrants and their relatives back home has had an enormous effect upon the westernization of turkish culture and politics.
The only ones talking about the incompatibility of Turkey and the rest of the EU has been the far parties..and the german christian democrats.

[MarcusT]

I suspect you haven't any direct experience with many of todays EU members and their "Euorpean Culture." But I do agree with you. Becoming a member of the EU would be terribly limiting for Turkey.

[DMikeyV]

i read mr. gardels story with interest, along with the comments here. here's my 2 cents worth. i spent a month in istanbul last year around this time and loved it. i have some experience traveling to only a couple of arab countries and have only a "slightly better feel" for the islamic influence on normal, day-to-day, life with the populace. in contrast, turkey is very westernized. the young people, tattooed and pierced and modern, spiked hair along with the trendy fashion centers and bistros and clubs ALL underscore, it seems to me, the fact that westernization and secularization is very alive and well there and will remain such for some time.

even the "qualified" tolerance of alternative lifestyles, which the Quran condemns, appears to be thriviing. or, at least, it does so to some accepted degree. individual rights do matter and are appreciated and the islamic government is of a brand that is focused on the richness of their resources -both intellectual as well as their natural ones; their highly skilled professionals and higher education systems are to be envied. in short, it is my "sense" that turkey's government is NOT going to slide backwards towards an iranian style fundamentalism. that would be stepping back to the 9th century which i do not see happening. i am flying to istanbul NEXT SUNDAY for a year or two and am very excited. I love the people and have no fears.

[MarcusT]

Perhaps you'll figure out that Turkey isn't an Arab country while you're back.

[Pleneras]

I don't know if living a western way of life is for everyone. Is Hugh Hefner, playboy, porn, biggest prison population....all worth the price? The world does not have to live the way the USA does. Many are very happy as europeans and conservative with their own religion. What people need to do is step out of their box and stop listening to the fearmongers:

Hadise - Düm Tek Tek

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxe6BQAzmEM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaG1bb8ykTs&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVcl6z-AyzQ&feature=related

[CaptainVideo]

No one is forced to read Playboy or have anything to do with Hefner, or to buy or watch porn.

The important point about western civilization is that people should have the right to decide these things for themselves, and not have government authorities tell them what to do.

[DeWayne]

CaptainVideo,
My experience with people, is that they are indeed much like food-items such as the apple, put one rotten apple amid a pile of apples, and that one rotten-apple will spread its value in time to all the others.

Wouldn't it be nice instead, if those freshest could instead spread their value to all the rest?

[Mildmannered]

interesting article

[MiddleRoadLiberal]

When Turkey is finished regressing into a theocracy, they can give the GOP some pointers.

[larry278]

Our friend, Cenk, blogs for HP & the Young Turks. I chose to trust Cenk. See what Cenk says. His views are interesting weather you choose to accept or reject them. I see Cenk as an American who is interested in Turkey, the land of Cenk's ancestors. Decide for yourself.
Disclosure: I dated a Turkish woman in 1988-90. She taught me a great deal about Islam, Turkey & the Middle East. I've leaned to seek, listen to & honor Muslim views.

[MarcusT]

This is both intellectually lazy and nonsensical.

[demlake]

Yes, it is.

I mean what you've written, of course.

Prove your contentions, or don't make them.

[Pleneras]

he didn't write much.

[MarcusT]

" the Iranian revolution was a direct consequence a half century later of the forced secularization of the Ottoman Caliphate by Kemal Ataturk."

Nonsensical.

[troathe]

There are people in Turkey who believe in secularism as a modern religion. For them social and democratic rights are secondary or tertiary and does not mean anything if they think those rights are contrary to the secularism. If you don't know, those people had turned Turkey into a frantic theocracy long ago. AK Party should be aided to get rid of that power elite to establish real democracy, if that is what we really care.

[S1m0n]

Do you mean M-16 or MI-6 ?

[whoa20]

God I pray that Turkey doesn't go Islamist. If it does, the West is screwed. It is best as it is now: an intermediary between the civilized world and the Islamic world.

[MarcusT]

"Go Islamist" I suggest you actually try to build some foundation of knowledge. Start with figuring out what a Semite is and work from there?

[whoa20]

please, you know damn well the term "anti-Semitism" always refers to Jews, not Arabs