Is Obama's Win Now "Inevitable"? I Hope Not

For many of us--we who've had an unhealthy obsession with this presidential campaign for 20 months and who've developed an amazing tolerance to read the same punditry, same polling data, and other identical political miscellany many times over as it ricochets around the blogosphere--it's incredible to see the finish line clearly, and to see that our horse is ahead. And now Obama has emerged unscathed from the third debate, which was said to be McCain's last best opportunity to turn the race.

Can we exhale yet? Polls are predicting an electoral blowout, so why wait?. Go ahead and pop the champagne (or pull the tab off your Coors widemouth can if you fear the elitist label) that you've been saving for this very occasion. It seems like, dare I say it, Obama's win is becoming "inevitable." But those who can remember back a year ago to the Democratic primary know that word well. Hillary Clinton's campaign was happy to cultivate the notion of inevitability (hey, Mark Penn, good idea?), and we know how that messaging worked out.

Many conservatives have now started resigning themselves to the outcome on November 4th and some are writing of Obama's inevitability. From Hugh Hewitt:

The financial panic helped Obama establish a lead and he and Joe Biden are doing everything they can to project inevitability (and getting a lot of help from their MSM friends in doing so, right down to the "hate-speech-at-McCain-rallies" stories).

Of course, the hapless Hewitt has had the anti-Midas touch of late, what with his earlier homage to Mitt Romney, A Mormon In the White House, and his still currently unsold oeuvre, How Sarah Palin Won the Election... and Saved America. Lucky for us, Hewitt has backup titles.

And then there's NY Times editorial foil Bill Kristol, opining in Monday's paper:

If the race continues over the next three weeks to be a conventional one, McCain is doomed. He may be anyway. Bush is unpopular. The media is hostile. The financial meltdown has made things tougher. Maybe the situation is hopeless -- and if it is, then nothing McCain or his campaign does matters. But I'm not convinced by such claims of inevitability.

First of all, the only "claim of inevitability" that Kristol cites is the one he just invented. In the words of Austin Powers, "allow myself not to be convinced by... myself."

So why are Hewitt and Kristol writing of Obama's inevitability? Is it a feint? No, they're reading the same polls we are. And besides, that would be giving them too much credit.

But their use of the word is a good reminder and kick in the pants for the rest of us. As much as we're waiting for the day when we can loose the political monkey from our backs and purge our minds and bodies of election-related psychoses (in LA, we have a special cleanse for that), we're not there yet. Yesterday, two colleagues separately expressed to me their concern that Obama's lead is too big, and we're being set up for a severe case of complacency if voters start thinking he's got it in the bag. Not that those of us who relish poring over political minutiae on the Internet and spend our weekends phone banking will rest on our laurels, but will our non-obsessed (and luckily so) family members, friends, and coworkers? I doubt it. But if you're concerned, make it your job to see that they don't. Can our first black candidate for president really ever rise to the level of being inevitable? Maybe. But if we're smart, we (and the Obama campaign) must resist that label.

Comments

[amessenger]

http://buzz.yahoo.com/article/1:houston_chron196:345e53a153a0c886494beb72703c6cce

And so it begins in Ohio where about 200,000 voters may be blocked for not being identifiable on government data bases from casting a regular ballot. Though it is being appealed, the suit was filed by----guess who?--------the RNC.

[amessenger]

I remember 2004, when no-one thought it was even remotely possible that "W" would win------ but then,......Ohio, the Diebold Voting machines and the suppression and intimidation at the polls and defeat the likes of which has loomed its doom cloud over us ever since "4 more years" became a reality of continual nightmares.

Get ready. They have Diebold mutant patched vote-dropping non-signatory machines in 33 states, many without paper records. They intend to discount, dispute, and deny defeat to whatever level of injustice they can muster, just like hanging chads in 2000.
I hope my suspicions are wildly paranoid and wrong, but when I heard McCainiac tell the world that he had us right where he wanted,
I could almost hear Bush's scoff and see the smirk mimicked on the Maverick's face.

The ONLY thing that can stop those efforts is a resounding landslide; one which we can only produce by vigilance and very cautious optimism.

Winning may be but half of the battle. Proving it in court and making it stick could be the other.Get ready to dump all the tea in the Potomac for the good of the country.

I say we get the attorney's working on it now.

[rgersmrk]

Just make sure and vote on Nov. 4. It's pretty simple. Obama is doing everything to remind people of that. Also, keep in perspective that things economically and socially were very different in 2000. Right now America is facing some real problems and that usually means high voter turnout. I don't think anyone is getting complacent with everything going wrong with the country.

[grammarcop]

The only thing inevitable is, that if Senator Obama wins the election and, the Democrats win both the House and the Senate the size of the Government will triple, the country will be less secure, and that innate entrepreneurial spark we are known for will be diminished to a flicker. Why burn the midnight oil to grow a business, when all that will happen is that as soon as the magic $250,000 threshold is hit, the Obama administration will 'spread' the wealth as they see fit. And with Representative Barney Frank, Senator Chris Dodd, and Rep. Charlie Rangel as the protectors guarding our tax dollar, we should all sleep well. Just as securely as we would knowing the fox is guarding the hen house, and the rat is guarding the cheese.

[peggyleg]

Right on, grammarcop, I agree w/you wholeheartedly

McCain/Palin '08

[ManhattanMC]

grammarcop

the size of government decreased under Clinton-
increased under Reagan and both Bushes-

Do you really fell secure with Bush starting wars with lies ?
Would you with Sarah-'I can see Russia from my house'-Palin in the oval office ?

don't kid yourself.

The rich have had a free ride since Reagan-
let them start paying their fair share

now

[Gudrun]

And how exactly did the Republicans guard your tax dollars?

[LeftRight]

Never mind the fact that it's more than DOUBLED under bush, and actually DECREASED under Clinton. Never mind the fact that, after accounting for inflation the Clinton tax INCREASES left more money in your pocket than the bush tax CUTS!

And never mind the fact that under every Democratic President since TRUMAN the economy and the markets perform better than under every REPUBLICAN President!

[Mildmannered]

According to a new Gallup poll among "likely voters" McCain trail Obama by only two points: 49-47

[TimmySlagle]

The Gallup organization is composed of right wing propagandists and funded by Roger Ailes.

Forget it it's all over but for the party.

[UltraClassic]

It's going to be tight, by hook or crook, Obama will win and ACORN will dog him for his entire 1st term.

[jpopphan]

It isn't inevitable, but it will be hard to explain if Obama loses.

We must keep up the pressure, keep on campaigning.

And it is not over on Inauguration Day either. We have to stay on top of our representatives in Congress and make sure they get the job done. Obama is gonna need all the help he can get in order to straighten out what eight years of Bush/Cheney/McCain politics have done to this country.

[Biffmeister]

"It ain't over until it's over?"

Yeah I know it's trite, but succinct advice non-the-less.

[jobecky20]

I agree..all this inevitable talk is scaring me! This election is too close for comfort...there are too many variables and unknowns...if you were planning to vote for Obama, please follow through with it...if only for the thrill of being able to tell your grandchildren you voted in this historical election even though it was "inevitable."

[Pupadup4oBama]

NO!!! Nothing is inevitable - even if just for the superstition of it.

[citizenshoes]

let us not forget "the bradley effect." nothing is as it seems.

[LeftRight]

I'm not even considering the "inevitability" of a President Obama. I remember too well the 2000 election when Gore actually won the whole thing, and still lost. I remember too well the 2004 election when I thought that no one in their right mind could vote for bush again, and yet.......

[wolfsvssarah]

Oh, you are so right. The thing is, Barak must win so big in so many states, that the Pugs cannot pull another Florida stunt. George Wiley Bush was never honestly elected, but we let it happen. Personally, I fear for our country if they pull this off again, people will be in the streets marching on the capital, and guess what I will be in my handicapped scooter with them, we cannot as the free citizens of this country allow this to happen again.

Get out and vote, and encourage all to vote. If you have not yet, contact your local Democratic party and give them some of your free time to call voters. Get out the Vote.