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John McCain's Strategy to Influence the Democratic Race
Let's say you're John McCain's chief advisor, and your candidate has made an improbable comeback to all but sew up the Republican presidential nomination. While reflecting on your good fortune (or dumb luck of facing a hapless slate of Republican contenders), you may also ask yourself, "Now that we've got this baby in the bag, what's next?" Attacking your only remaining rival, Mike Huckabee, would do little more than legitimize his stubbornly clinging campaign. Of course, there's the need to shore up support among the conservative wing of the Republican Party and prove your bona fides, but that's easily enough done with a quick hypocritical vote against an anti-torture bill. The other thing you might do is wonder whom your eventual candidate will be, whom you want it to be, and most importantly, what you can do in the coming weeks to keep the Democratic race in a state of unsettled disarray and help ensure that the weaker candidate gets the nod.
So, given a chance to affect the Democratic race in his favor, what's McCain's best bet? All the current indicators suggest that McCain is already working from a position of strength against Hillary Clinton, whereas he lags nationally and in key state races against Barack Obama. Senator Clinton's polling disadvantage--whether due to her high negatives or Obama's ability to attract the independents who would otherwise swing for McCain--may be undeserved, given the policy similarities between her and Obama, but it should give all Democrats cause for concern if she is the nominee. It seems that McCain has figured this out, and he's decided to do whatever possible to tilt the remaining Democratic contests in Senator Clinton's favor and to thwart Senator Obama, McCain's greater general-election threat.
As I've mentioned before, Obama continues to top McCain in poll after poll, whereas Clinton faces serious and troubling polling deficits against McCain. As of February 17th, the Rasmussen national Presidential Tracking Report shows Obama leading McCain 46%-44%, while Clinton trails McCain 42%-49%. And, interestingly, in Pennsylvania (a supposed Clinton firewall against Obama), she trails McCain 42%-44%, while Obama leads McCain 49%-39%. In Oregon, the other state with a February 17th head-to-head poll, Obama beats McCain 49%-40%, whereas Clinton trails McCain, 42%-45%. Now, I want universal health coverage, incentives for green industry, and a common-sense economic policies as much as the next guy, but if we don't win in November, the marginal differences between our candidates are going to seem a lot more irrelevant.
Since sweeping last Tuesday's Potomac Primaries, McCain has trained his focus on Obama, attacking him in his victory speech and continuing on in the days following. Almost entirely ignoring Clinton, McCain has gone after Obama on earmarks, inexperience, style, and public financing. In fact, the McCain and Clinton campaigns have been adopting each other's anti-Obama talking points. McCain has taken up the meme that Obama is all style, no substance, and Clinton has happily joined McCain's attack on Obama for hedging on whether he'd accept public financing in the general election, notwithstanding that such an argument is entirely premature since Obama is not yet the nominee. But if you're McCain, and you anticipate that Obama will be your opponent, why not save your best material until Obama has the nomination locked up? Simple: McCain wants to see Obama defeated in the Democratic primary and will attack him in ways that resonate most with Democrats.
The public financing angle is particularly interesting. Although Obama only talked of accepting public financing if he is the nominee, McCain has raised the issue long before the nominee has been chosen. The likely reason: Democratic voters have long bemoaned the undue influence of money in politics, and Obama's initial indications that he'd accept public financing have now run up against the fact that he has been so unexpectedly successful in translating grassroots support into dollars--harnessing the power of the internet and aggregating small donors to create a formidable war chest. Obama's good fortune that his message has attracted voters' money has put him in an unanticipated quandary: should he take the McCain-advocated moral high ground and commit to public financing (leveling the playing field with a less moneyed GOP opponent) or should he embrace the groundswell of financial support that his constituents have provided him? Clinton, on the other hand, never the underdog, always anticipated having such a money advantage that even raising the possibility of accepting public financing would have been unthinkable (although her earlier endorser, the New York Times, has recently called for her to do so).
Of course, regardless of which position Obama would eventually adopt, he would still be on the cleaner side of campaign finance than Clinton: he does not accept money from federal lobbyists, whereas Senator Clinton has maintained her position that she accepts lobbyist money but states that "I'm [not] going to be influenced by a lobbyist or a particular interest group." Even so, she has taken in the most lobbyist money of any candidate, Republican or Democrat. Given these facts, progressives should be more sympathetic to Obama's stance on campaign money--even John Edwards gives Obama the moral advantage--yet McCain's attacks are made with the goal of undermining Obama's campaign finance credibility with progressives. The intended audience of McCain's attacks isn't Republicans or Independents, it's Democrats. McCain is seeing his dream match-up against Clinton slipping away, and is taking action to help resurrect her campaign. Democratic voters should do well to recognize this strategic sleight of hand for what it is, an effort to undermine Senator Obama in order to benefit John McCain's preferred opponent, Senator Clinton.
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No one has discussed the psychology of the voter. There are four age groups involved in this election and McCain will not win 3 of the 4. The 18 to 30 age group sees McCain to be old enough to be their grandfather and sees Obama as an energetic, upbeat and enthusiactic while McCain is also dull and boring. In the 31 to 49 age group many of these people are having financial difficulties and if you ask them is the country better off today then it was 4 years ago the answer is no. They view McCain as being an integral part of a failed administration and the words hope and change is as sweet as sugar. The 50 to 64 age group is when retirement is being thought of they find that more and more people have to continue working full time and view the current administration has deserted them. The 65 and over group want experience and probably will vote for McCain. However they represent the least number of voters among the 4 groups. Obviously there are other factors that work against McCain.
Hillary Clinton needs to accept the likelihood that she can have the VP slot provided she not inflict gratuitous injury on Obama in the months to come. McCain would be a disaster for the US if he gets into the White House because his militarist approach to the Middle East could well set the region ablaze.
When the time comes, Obama should accept McCain's challenge and donate his vast warchest to the DNC to insure he gets overwhelming majorities in both houses of Congress.
These polls, are of course, the SAME ones that declared McCain FINISHED as the republican candidate. In 2008, ALL BETS ARE OFF and polls are NO INDICATION of what will actually happen. I do know however, whether the Democratic candidate is Obama or Clinton, there will be a DEMOCRAT in the White House after the General Election and McCain better go looking for a job as Gila-Monster catcher(in keeping with his temperament) in Arizona!
whoops, for mcburge...
Whew - between the tenor of today's HuffPo entries in general and the tone of far too many of the comments, I'd say we Independents really do need to abandon our curent approach to improving the future of America - or "tampering" with "their" Party, as the Democrats are increasingly wont to call it - and form a true Independent Party.
And I propose that rule #1 of said new Independent Party should be:
If you cannot run a clean campaign that addresses issues of substance rather than dwelling on petty and slanderous inferences because you know that you too are too beholden to the exact same "special interests" as the other fellow to attack them, you're fired.
Did you ever hear of the WHIG party? It was probably people who thought as you did in writing the above that caused them to leave off the slate. Negative remarks here will come back to stifle the thought of another party. Say unto folks what you would like said unto you. Respect the party you are from or stem from. We're differnt, but we are all people.
Why anyone but a handful of hard-core haters would vote Republican is beyond me. How John McCain could receive more than 30 percent of the popular vote is a sad commentary on U.S. democracy. After this utter trainwreck of an administration, the GOP should be conducting some sort of Going Out Of Business sale.
And the moderates are not deciding whether to vote for McCain or Obama. That would be like a man deciding whether to sleep with Racheal Ray or Joan Rivers. If Obama is to beat McCain it will be because he got people to get out of their homes and to the polling places this election day.
Not so much of a stretch. When that's all they have that's the way they'll vote. Obama is already ahead of McCain in the polls if that was the match, but stay tuned for the Hilary/McCain dogpile on Obama. McCain knows he can beat Hilary and knows he won't beat Obama. Of couse the Repugs are going to do everything in their power so Hilary is the chosen one. She is, after all, Repug Lite.
And is this your psychological strategy to use against that infamous Clinton machine?
You people stop at nothing.
People talk their garbage about the Clintons, well where is it, where is that machine?
And the high negatives? Keep telling the story that is how she got them in the first place.
I'm all about Obama and was right from the start... until I started smelling something rotten in Denmark.
The smug snarkiness is one thing and can even be enjouyed but the slick machine he has coupled with the foul hate filled spewing of ridiculous accusations and propaganda against Hillary his "followers" on the "Progressive" blogs engage in have really turned me off.More than turned me off. I stopped campaigning for him and stopped contributing to him.
I will vote for either Democratic candidate of course. but the vitriolic rhetoric from thiose who are supposedly going to elevate the conversation, disagree without being disagreeable, work together and not fight the fights of the... whatever decade.
No, I can't actively support someone who has such a huge following of supporters with these kind of negative values.If he actually spoke up against them maybe then I would feel comfortable again. But you know the "believers"don't see any of the masterful way he uses words to achieve the "attacks" he engages in.
This is politics and from what I see it has been the most civil campaign I've ever seen.
continues from above:
Yet I hear so much about Hillary "attacking" Barack and Barack "pointing out the differences."
What a bunch of crap.
Either of these people will be a good President, either may actually wind up being a great President, But neither stands a chance if the supporters don't grow up and take some responsibility for their actions and realize that their candidate is not going to be perfect and be 100% in line with the ideology of every supporter. Some people will be pissed off at their candidate right from the get go for one reason or another.
The other thing the candidates supporters have to realize is that the candidate is not going to be the person to bring about the change. There is real work to do after the election, that work has to be done by YOU, not by the candidate.The President is the facilitator to get the People's will done. You have to work for it however.
Sitting at your computer hurling invective at and demonizing the people you don't like isn't work, its petty bullshit that you can hear on every schoolyard and street corner.
If there is no civility in the campaign I don't expect any after the election is over either.
If Barack is the winner I know that Hillary supporters will fully unite and throw their support with Barack. Unfortunately what I see in many if not most Hillary Barack supporters is a petty vindictiveness that will do what they can to undermine her by repeating the same old lies, rumors and innuendos the far right and neo-cons fed into the political landscape a very long time agao. Hillary has high negatives and is polariaing because you all say she is, over and over, and over.
You are driving people away from Barack, certainly not in any numbers that matter but I would like to think that the high minded values that Obama purports to hold and that his disciples want to follow would live that ideal rather than engage in right wing tactics.
OOPS this:
"... Hillary Barack supporters is a petty vindictiveness that will do what they can to undermine her..."
ashould read this:
"... Barack Obama supporters is petty vindictiveness..."
The GOP is and embarrassment to all Americans !
This just proves it , once again !
Everyone I know voted for Obama in the primary, but will not vote for Hillary if she's the candidate. I hear that on our local Air America outlet.
Someone has to tell Mrs. Bill Clinton that the nation is more important than her massive ego.
She must be stopped.
So, everyone you know doesn't care if universal health care becomes a reality, it appears. Obama will NOT help make it happen. Folks like you will screw up our chance at getting everyone covered.
Of course, since you are not going to vote for the Dem, no matter who it is, then you are obviously in the camp of those that don't care about the basic Democratic principles of helping others and equality amongst all. You are the crossovers that are screwing up our chance of getting decent Democratic policies in place.
YUP,
The ones who bought into the far right narrative that the neo-cons have blinded the purist ideologues on the left with. They have been spoon feeding them this garbage for years and years.
If they succeed in keeping Dem's away they will be laughing their asses off because they swift boated again and they did it against Hillary who they have never been able to destroy despite their best efforts.
They snicker now because so many of the left bought into their nasty lies about Hillary.
Isn't it wonderful that Obama supporters are so committed to elevating politics, lifting up the conversation, reaching across divides and disagreeing without being disagreeable?
Really impressive.
And the commitment they have to the country by not voting for Hillary is really is beyond the call of duty.
I'm so impressed by their desire to see a better America by allowing the Republicans to win as a protest that I am going to sign up and work for Obama.
Oh wait. I did that and then I started realizing that the supporters are over the top in their fevered frenzy with the belief that he is going to deliver Utopia and they can just sit back and scream their divisive and hateful drivel at "the enemy."
The people who believe this crap about Hillary just spout off the stuff they heard from others who spout off stuff they heard from others who spout off something they heard.They never really check to see if it is all true and what the body of her life's work has been. That would require patience and an ability to be fair which is beyond someone attached to such a strict ideology.
These people will turn on Barack as soon as he has to cut a deal and let something happen they disagree with to get something done they do agree with.
They have no idea how government really works and how much negotiating it takes to actually be a person who represents ALL the people not just their ideological agenda.
Pull up genocide,Az McCain...You will gain another reason to understand why folks don't want McC to become Pres. He will not beat Obama.
We care about our vote, and who we are voting for. You will too, when you get your facts str. Obama will get his Universal HC Plan passed. Unlike Hil, she has only a Universal PLAN for HC. This is different and this empty glass will never be filled.
Maybe has to tell everyone you know that the Nation is more important than their petty and spiteful ignorance.
I know, you do it.
You sound like a smart girl.
OOPS, guy.
Oh wait, you are in the every body you know mob.
I hope Betty will be proud of her Dad when she realizes he and everyone he knows helped bring down America when there was a chance to bring it back up.
Good luck with that.
A more Rovian scenario:
Mc Cain has the nomination nailed down.. Word is that republicans will vote for Obama in the Texas primaries " to spite Hillary, and to corrupt the Democratic primaries by trying to give the nomination to Obama, with the intention of voting for McCain in the general election.
Mon Feb 18th on Olberman"s MSNBC #4 - Jim Moore " Author "Bush"s Brain" and contributor at Huffpost on Texas primary: "A lot of the Republicans are going to go over and vote in the Democratic primary to vote against Hillary, sort of as an act of vengeance."
I have little doubts that McCain will be our next President! American's are not known these days for their intelligence! Moron's like McBurge will put him in the White House because they aren't bright enough to vote for change. I am a Democrat too! I will vote Democrat regardless of who is the candidate. Because Republican's are not a option these days. McCain is a Bush clone! Which is the biggest reason I won't vote for him. It's going to be 4 to 8 years of the same mess we have had for 7 long years now. So you can vote for him and repent at your leisure America!
hey tummblewind, very well said.
But maybe it will be 12 years because I figure that he has only one term in him and then the VP will get the next 8 years. My God, do you think it might be Lieberman?
That is my guess.
Watch the middle east blow up then.
Lord Have Mercy!
These people are the same ones who attacked Gore and spewed out right wing rumor and innuendo and then voted for Nader. (Then called on him to run in this election the bunch of ignorant hypocrites.)They did it to Kerry too.
The Republican's have always said the Democrats eat their own.Look at the miserable level of bullshit we see on the liberal blogs.
Lets all show them how Right they are... no pun intended.
You are right on Tumblewind, you only forgot the Supreme Court,a major thing for any American that wants to keep his rights to freedom. avote for any republican is to give up our future, McCain is the third term for Bush and more judges.
"McCain's attacks are made with the goal of undermining Obama's campaign finance credibility with progressives."
What McCain might not realize is that those progressives are where all of Obama's millions are COMING FROM. Who cares if he spends a trillion dollars if it's all voter contributions? If McCain can't keep up... then the contest for the support of the American people has been settled, right?
McCain has lost all credibility as an advocate for public financing because as WAPO reported and everyone now knows, he secured a $1 mil bank loan before the NH primary with a signed agreement to accept federal matching funds and stay in the campaign as collateral on that loan if he lost in NH by a margin where his campaign would no longer be viable. It isn't even clear if this bank loan was legal and for sure it raises serious ethics problems.
McCain only cares about public financing if it works to his benefit. He knows Obama will and can out raise him by gazillions of dollars if they meet head to head in the general election.
And let's be clear too. Obama only suggested public financing if it fit into a real movement to reform how elections are financed. He should not and would not agree to a one time deal with McCain leaving this issue unresolved for future elections or allow 527s to launch negative attacks on him that he couldn't defend because he lacked sufficient funds.
If I were Obama I would never agree to accept public financing until this issue was permanently resolved by Congress so all candidates would have to abide by this. We all know if the shoe were on the other foot and the GOP were energized and raising lots of money, they would never consider public financing.
RJ Crane, topplebush.com
Meanwhile, Democrats are still trying to decide whether any perceptible Republican meddling in the Democratic primary race should be interpreted as reverse psychology or reverse reverse psychology. We don't know what lies ahead for either candidate in the general election race. But we do have some broad generalizations:
No matter what happens, the Clinton campaign is very unlikely to implode, and if they lose, they won't lose by very much, which matters for the down-ticket races. On the other hand, it's very unlikely that she wins by very much either. She either wins or loses by less than 2 points.
Conversely, it's possible to imagine an Obama implosion. It's conceivable that some attack line will stick or some scandal will gain traction and result in a resounding defeat. On the other hand, Obama could very well end up on the winning side a double-digit blow-out.
It's hard to say at this point which candidate has a better shot of beating McCain. However, it's easy to say that Obama has a better chance of winning big and Clinton has a better chance of coming up just short. If Obama wins, he will likely have a comfortable Democratic majority in Congress. If Clinton wins, Congress will likely move only slightly to the left.
(continued...)
(...continued)
In a sense, a Obama is less like rolling the dice and more like doubling down. With Obama, we stand to win or lose bigger than we do with Clinton. And if there were a perfect moment for the Democrats to aim a little higher, then it's right now, after a disastrous neoconservative administration that has many Republicans questioning their core ideology.
Obama sucks the life out of most potential third-party candidacies. He closes the door for Bloomberg and Nader and competes well against McCain for Red Letter Christians (Huckabee supporters). Any right-wing evangelical (Dobson) ticket does little more than hurt McCain.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, running about Obama will make McCain uncomfortable and awkward on the campaign trail. He really wants that spirited mudslinging contest with the Clintons, where he could showcase his sharp tongue and snarky humor. McCain knows that the chance of his big mouth getting him in trouble goes up big-time if he runs against Obama, and that will cause him to err on the bland side. In a campaign where the age contrast will be hard to miss, that takes away one of McCain's tricks for appearing young and spry.
BTW, "spry" is a great loaded word to use against McCain. It implies youthful energy, but it's almost always used to describe old people.
I am a democrat, however, I'm voting McCain in 08.
If Obama is the candidate, I will join you in voting for McCain in 08. There are many of us out there with the same sentiment. We don't want cool aide.
Anyone claiming to be a democrat voting for McCain is too stupid and/or uninformed to know better. Every Democrat serving in the Senate [Lieberman excluded because he isn't a Democrat anymore] is better suited to be President than John McCain. Every Democrat in the Senate has a higher progressive rating than McCain.
If anyone wants to vote for McCain they should start coughing up NOW the $30,000 they owe as their share of the Iraq War and expect it to go much higher. And I don't care if you have to refinance your house or go hungry to pay my country back either. I am taking away your Iraq occupation credit card. And God help us if McCain gets to appoint any USSC justices and decides to pay back the American taliban for any support they might have given him.
If you want to fully understand the self-serving character of John McCain I suggest you read about the circumstances under which he left his first wife for a much younger richer trophy one that could advance his political ambitions. And if you still want to vote for McCain, I hope someone treats you the same way.
RJ Crane, topplebush.com
Then you are no Democrat! How could you vote for such a war monger? Are you that afraid of a female president? What a pig! The Democrats are better off without your type of support! Good riddance ...
This makes no sense at all. Want more insane? Vote McCain. Repugs will NEVER end their wars and their profiteering. That's the whole neocon plan, in a nutshell. Oh, and US supremacy and world domination, in a world that's proving it doesn't want to be dominated. When Russia, China and Asia side against us you'll change your tune, and too late. We'll become completely isolated- probably even Canada will dump us- with closed borders and rampant fascism. The dollar will be worth nothing, the poor and middle class back in bread lines, and the wealthy sitting back smoking Cubans at the "Club" wondering what the little people are up to. That's the plan, man.
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Posted February 18, 2008 | 06:55 AM (EST)