The Establishment Underdog & The Upstart Frontrunner

In the wake of Barack Obama's big (and by big, I mean, huge) weekend, and amidst the Clinton campaign staff shake-up, one of the subtexts being pushed by the Clinton campaign is that Obama has become the "establishment" candidate, and that Clinton herself is now the "underdog" in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination. What a reversal of fortunes that would be--but I'm not buying it. In fact, the Clinton campaign started pushing that talking point right after Super Tuesday, perhaps hoping that it would lower expectations a touch for the weekend primary and caucuses (cauci?). Her campaign may be right on one account (underdog), but it's not a characterization that she should be particularly proud of trumpeting at this late date.

As Democratic circles are abuzz with and aghast at the potential for Superdelegate shenanigans and backroom deals, we're past the underdog-as-novelty phase and instead are looking to back the candidate with momentum, staying power, and the ability to win in November. That being the case, Mark "Driving Your Campaign Into the Ground for Only $4.3 Million" Penn's decision to push this story line is particularly curious. And I'm not sure that anyone, even Clinton backers, would agree with the notion that by winning states and delegates that Obama has become the "establishment" candidate. There's no clearer proof that the opposite is true than the number of endorsements and Superdelegates that Clinton had sewn up before 2008 even began. But what Mr. Penn's tactic also does is to underscore how woefully unprepared the Clinton campaign was for a contest which would stretch beyond Super Tuesday, her supposed D-Day. So, bracing for the possibility of a drawn-out contest, Penn tried a bit of improv and came up with these Twilight Zone-esque recharacterizations of the candidates.

The Obama-as-establishment and Clinton-as-underdog descriptions were post-Super Tuesday talking points for her campaign, but going forward the task will be how to avoid sliding down that slippery slope from "underdog" to "underwater." And given these rhetorical errors in the past week, perhaps the Clinton campaign chose the wrong staffer (Patty Solis Doyle), as their sacrificial lamb, when that honor should have fallen to Mr. Penn.

This weekend's contests--Nebraska, Washington, Louisiana, Maine, and, lest we forget, the Virgin Islands--did serve to nudge Obama into the fickle frontrunner spot, at least for the moment. And, despite David Axelrod's protestations to the contrary ("We are up against the Clinton machine. We are the perpetual underdog and will be throughout this process."), there is the real possibility that Obama has inherited the frontrunner mantle, whether he likes it or not. But, having already beat the odds to overcome a massive name-recognition deficit, this is a mantle that the Obama campaign will have to begin to embrace, albeit cautiously. Right now, the biggest threat to Obama's campaign is that his fervent and dedicated volunteers will become complacent in the wake of their most recent victories. But if they can avoid any such false confidence, Obama will be well-poised to challenge Clinton in her Custer-like (or, should we say Rudy-like) last stands in Ohio and Texas.

Democrats in both the Clinton and Obama camps, fearful that party insiders will decide the nomination, are realizing the need to hitch their wagon to the candidate that can win the nomination in the most democratic fashion, and right now that candidate is Senator Obama. Apart from Obama's regained momentum against Clinton, six of seven recent polls show him besting John McCain in the general election, while Clinton loses to McCain in five of the seven polls, and only ties him in the other. Even Peggy Noonan has caught on to the advantages that Obama holds over the GOP in the general election: "The Democrats continue not to recognize what they have in this guy. Believe me, Republican professionals know. They can tell." Ms. Noonan is right about Obama's electoral strengths, but she's wrong about her first premise. We have recognized what we have in Senator Obama, and this weekend continued to bear out that realization.

Comments

[BaselessOp]

Ready to make MORE BAD DECISIONS ON DAY ONE.

Dissecting the two campaigns, sans the emotion, it’s easy to see which is the best candidate for president. The Clinton campaigns plusses encompass glaring minuses.
First, the flawed strategy, the inevitability assumption, the over-priced, less than effective campaign management team, the large donor strategy, the list goes on.
Her team ignored Clinton’s high negatives. More than half the country is against her. The only way she could be elected is with the inclusion of a third party candidate. (See 1992 Clinton, Bush, Perot) She’ll never get more than 40% in the general. Her team should have done more to change her image early on. If she can’t chose an adequate staff to help her make the right decisions she’ll have big problems in the White House.
Second, the campaign was out of money after Iowa. How could a campaign that was a shoo in just months ago now have trouble making payroll? This is a huge weakness. How will she manage or even construct a proper budget while in office?
Finally, there’s Bill. It seems to me he believes too much of his own bullshit. His presence diminishes her. He should have taken a page from Bush 1 while his son was running and budded out.
On the other hand, the Obama campaign seems to have taken time early on to recognize the challenges and properly meet them. He knew he’d have problems tapping into traditional donors, so he didn’t go there. He cast a broader net. He’s shown he knows how to surround himself with the right people. Though many opponents have said he’s all pretty words and no substance, in his speeches he says exactly what he’s doing…being inclusive/not divisive, talking about what can be done/not what can’t. His message has been consistent, despite polls and critics.
In recent years this country has been undergoing a transformation. There has been outsourcing and restructuring. There needs to be a restructuring in Washington. People are afraid of change. We should be more afraid that things won’t change.

[riverhouse]

Obama is a long ball hitter. He's been sailing them out of the park and he's going to do it again today. If the Democratic Party machine messes with his nomination, the Democratic Party will never survive the outrage. John McCain is the old wounded vet Bob Dole against the young Bill Clinton now Barack Obama. Obama will put the Democrats in the White House.

[Troubledgoodangel]

In Argentina, I loved to bet on horses. But a presidential candidate is not a horse. Were he a horse, I would probably have voted for Obama. The young and strong horses win, and if they do, I win. But Obama is not a horse. If Obama wins, no one knows who will win and who will lose! Obama is all posture, energy, and show, like Ophrah. If elected, will he respect the Christians' viewpoint? Ophrah literally spits on Christianity! She has no use for it. Ophrah, and Obama, to my understanding, believe in "Force" - the Almighty Nature! Every "God" is out. What matters are "Good Deeds." It's a humanist religion taken to the extreme. We are not working for God Who is our Savior. For Obama and Ophrah "we save ourselves"! A scary thought, given the cosmic problems we face!

[ddlrid]

you are indeed troubled, troubledgoodangel! what a twisted post...

[LoriAnn]

Barack Obama may be christian but his outlook on the world is all inclusive. He has never said anything other than that. I dont want to hear about anyones religion, especially not those who hold office. They are not there to dictate their religious ideology to anyone. I am agnostic and I want a candidate who is representing my concerns and issues not what "mythological" character he prays to. I dont care and it has no place in how my candidate deals with the world. He is intelligent, has a world view on all religion and does not judge on that basis! Oprah is a hugely spiritual person and it works for her so more power to her.

[Opus007]

I'm sick of the Clintons and their wheeling and dealing and their back room deals. Theh Clintons and the DLC are just Republican Lite. I cannot not get beyond on that corporate money- sorry.

[Star2000dancer]

More people are turning Independent everyday. What happens if it keeps going up to say over 60% or more? What does that tell us? Perhaps that we need a candidate that really is for "We The People". The 1st candidate to figure that out would win. I see no candidate left, save for Ron Paul who is even close. I've watched Obama's face & saw it turn ugly. I've followed Clinton closely since 1994, I saw McCain go up & down back & forth, I watch Huckabee give quick but elisive retorts, I watched Kucinich get the boot & shut down. But of all I think Kucinich stood for what the people want,& what Independents want the most. A true Democracy. I like Austrailia's leader alot so far, he tells it like it is. I keep seeing everyone getting told everything but what we do want to hear. Not a good sign. I want to sit down with Barack & Clinton one on one, in private & really talk to them. Alot of people depend on my opinion & for the first time I am perplexed. None of the candidates come through honestly to me. Nor do they address the issues myself nor the people who do want to vote right care about. None of them voted in the primaries, but if they had, Kucinich had it the closest but got black balled by the media. If Barack & Clinton got closer to his ideals, they would draw a huge chunk of voters. If they watched "Sicko" & got health care right, that too would be huge. There's a huge group of Independents undecided & that have never been polled. Perhaps one candidate will realize that & finally try to reach us.

[wrabbitt]

The establishment has started to crumble, the people are no longer happy with business as usual! Damn the system,keep shoving candidates at us that say change, and mean just the names not the methods. Sure hes got experience, if Hillarys got 35 years of business as usual. Obamas got a chance at giving the people control of the government again after 25 years of it doing what ever it damn well pleased. As a veteran I am ashamed of the VA and all the rats that run it, or should i say turned it over to the private sector to make money off refusing services to those who didn't refuse to help America! OBAMA all the way. This is not about color, i'm white but, don't trust Hillary.!

[quest44]

I think if the deligates decide who will win the nomination then the only fair thing to do is to look at who the American people as a whole have voted for and then they should give their votes to that person otherwise our votes don't count !

[thegulliblecitizen]

To spend 170 million dollars to achieve underdog status is equalled only by the Congress of the United States of America! How long before the Las Vegas betters will resonate and shut off the spigots that have provided her an unlimited budget which bought her nothing but defeat.

[mingusman]

I think we have very reason to fear the issue of superdelegates (I think it's right up there with the Electoral College when it comes to subverting the democratic process). I was a fan of Bill's when he was in office and I was hopeful of a Hillary candidacy (that is, until she actually started running. Then I didn't care much for what I saw). These are powerful people who thought they had this coming to them. If the primaries indicate otherwise, I think we are in for something many of us will not be happy to witness.

[anghiari]

I ABSOLUTELY AGREE with Mingusman. Super Delegates like Congresswoman Maxine Waters owe the Clintons a great deal. Clinton appointed Maxine's husband Sidney as Ambassador to the Bahamas. Waters' husband was at the time a car salesman in L.A. or had been for years and a good one so they say. But how his resume rose to the level of earning that appointment is a bit of the new math...So can anyone doubt that Maxine's endorsement and her vote are in lockdown by the Clintons? There are a zillion other stories about the Clinton largesse to a range of elected officials during the Clinton years. These people are also locked into a commitment to support Hillary come hell or Obama... Now that the Clintons are experiencing rejection from Blacks who once idolized them it is even more important for them to keep folks from abandoning the ship. I'm in full agreement with Mingusman that we are in for the part of the Clintons the Republicans told us about, but we were unwilling to consider. Someone should suggest to Marc Penn (Solis probably got the boot because she wasn't willing to do the things that will be needed in the next three weeks) there is a new electorate out there who have little patience with lies and distortion. Even your friends will forgive these deceptions for only so long. Everybody knows what Bill did in South Carolina...Rangel knows it, Bob Kerry knows it, Ted Kennedy knows it, even Paul krugman and the NyTimes knows it. Yet they tolerate it and parse it...doing anything but nail Clinton for his shameless pandering to the racists among us. Shame on Maxine and all the other Super delegates who sold their futures so long ago...all I can say is that our Uber delegates had better man up and deliver an above board, honest vote for the candidate who can win against McCain OR you are going to destroy the Democratic Party...WE WILL WALK away and leave you to yourselves.

[Jonny38103]

Pitiful. "I'll just take my marbles and go home!" You're not intersted in Democratic ideals and what's good for your country, you just want your guy no matter what. Go be a Republican then.

[MAGLATINA]

GOOD WALKING! THE DYNAMICS HERE IS THE HOSTILITY (HATE) OF HILLARY. OBAMA IS NOT THE BEST CANDIDATE... HE WILL NEVER WIN...LEAVE IT TO THE REPUBLICANS TO DIP THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE TO THEIR MACHIAVELIAN GOALS WITH WITH THEIR MACHIAVELEAN TACTICS.

[kenmacusa]

Ron Paul is the only candidate left that is not a member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Buildberg fraternity. All others in both parties are and have been involved in international cause to form the North American Union and eventual World government. Michelle Obama was the Chicago CFR Director. Both Clintons attended Buildberg meetings as guests. And ALL are involved with or members of the NYC CFR.

Ron Paul is the only congressman that has consistently sponsored legislation to rid the Nation of the private Federal Reserve Corporation international bank. He has talked about the fiat money system and the inflation problem as the fall of the "dollar" in value continues. He is the only candidate that will STOP the war and Bring our troops home from all countries. Stop Pax-Americana the failing Empire building and Secure our borders from the invasion. He has talked about real issues and how to solve the Nations destruction from a Republic to a "Soviet" meaning Council Union. Not by the vote or will of the people or even the elected officials but rather by as in EU council appointed men.

Ron Paul has warned American People of machinationsfrom so-called elite and there drive to eliminate this nations middle-class and have without approval a World Government.

Ron Paul's voting record reflects his statesmanship regard for following the Constitution and not attempting to violate each and every Bill of Right guarantee to Unalienable Rights to be protected by the public servants that now want to be the masters over We the People. Why those of you would choose someone to lead the Nation to destroy the Republic at will of the un-elected shows that uninformed voters can lead to an un-free future for our posterity.

[JanP]

Does Ron Paul's history of bigotry and racism mean anything to you?

How can isolationism succeed? What products do you want to give up? do you not care about anyone else?

[TheKiddy]

I am so tired of election coverage as I no longer have a dog in the contest. Both candidates had and have huge amounts of money from big backers and if the Kennedys are not the Establishment well then who is? Being chosen to speak at a national convention is like being the Chosen One. Meanwhile, the Clintons do have an establishment of their own. Who cares say I. I hate arguing Hillary's health plan when it was Edwards' in the first place. I hate reading Bob Herbert say in the Times that the candidates have no "big ideas" when my candidate did have big ideas. I am exhausted by the whole thing. Am I the only one who will dutifully vote for the Democratic nominee in November (but who will need a little blue pill or something equally energizing to get myself to the polls)?

[Myrna-Ann]

"Even Peggy Noonan has caught on to the advantages that Obama holds over the GOP in the general election"

Peggy Noonan in the Wall Street Journal, , David Brooks in the NY Times...why are prominent Republicans so high on Obama? Surely they want the Republican candidate to win the election. Might it be that Obama is the Democrat they prefer to run against?

[MAGLATINA]

HAS IT TAKEN A BRAIN STORM TO REALIZE THE TRUTH? KUDOS TO YOU... LATE BUT SURE... :-(

[lifeinfullcolor]

If Hillary really wants to be the underdog, then she should stop using her superdelegates to prop up her numbers. I don't understand how and why those delegates are coming into play now, isn't it a little too early for that?

[peacepipe]

We shouldn't base our votes on race or sex, much less on amorphous labels like "frontrunner" or "uderdog". We should vote for the candidate most likely to get us out of Iraq and least likely to start a war with Iran. I think that candidate is Obama.

[JanP]

I agree witht he first [part of your statement.

On the other hand, we need to win in Iraq and we need to keep Iran from getting nukes - unless yu don't mind being a target, living as you do in "The Great Satan".

[Troubledgoodangel]

Yours is a wishful thinking. No one knows what will happen in Iraq, nor in Iran. If I were to choose the best candidate, I would look at his or her solutions for the economy.

[Ides]

Remember Dilawar! Vote for Obama!!!!

[desmirl]

From the way the contributions are coming in, it seems corporate America likes Hilary and real people like Obama. I wonder which side the superdelegates are on?