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Ned Goldreyer

Ned Goldreyer

Posted March 7, 2009 | 02:05 PM (EST)

Recession or Depression: Which is Right for You?


What is it with this economy already? Are we in a depression, as many believe, or merely a recession, as many believe? Could it possibly be some third, other thing, like a punishment from angry Cherokee spirits? A tracking error? Is it the fault of so-called "international bankers," as prominent antisemiticians maintain? Time once again to turn to the Simplificator, for an explanation in terms even I might understand as to what exactly is going on.

This current economic holocaust began officially some months ago, when it affected me. I lost whatever job it was I had, and since I'm sure I was great at it, or I at least showed up, there is no doubt that my firing resulted directly from a worsening economy. My sustained inability to find subsequent employment is further evidence of growing world-wide financial collapse.

Economists disagree on what distinguishes a recession from a depression. This is a big reason why no one respects economists. They want us to think of them as scientists, but they demonstrably are not. Real scientists can make accurate predictions based on previous experience. Tomorrow morning the sun will come up. Wednesday all fountain drinks will be half-off at I-HOP. Global warming is going to kill us all. Unlike scientists, no economist has ever accurately predicted anything. All they do is describe what's already happened, guess the reason, and then come up with an excuse why, when the exact same circumstances come around again, the situation that follows is nothing like it was the first time. Some people would say this is a lot like having a "system" for betting at the track. Idiots would disagree.

Years ago the country experienced what will soon be called the First Great Depression. It was a time of almost universal suffering and want, when shiftless bums aspired to the respectability of unemployment, anything that could be swallowed was considered food, and children as young as three months routinely climbed inside dead carriage horses to pull the swells around town in exchange for cigarette money. Historians refer to this period as America's golden age.

But all were not destitute even in this bygone era of universal moneylessness. Oil tycoon John Delano Rockefeller, the last man in the country who still owned a wallet, boasted holdings estimated at nearly $280. Film stars, the movie stars of the day, earned fortunes exploiting the public's desperate need to escape from their misery. For eight cents a family of six could see a matinee beginning at noon and not have to leave the theater for a month. Some people utterly forgot their hopeless squalor until the lights came up and they saw who they were sitting with.

Even today, there is comfort in the fact that not everyone is suffering. The ultra-super-mega-rich have retained more than enough wealth to fund the disgusting excesses that we covetously condemn them for. Flying around naked and stoned in their quintillion dollar space mansions, they look down at us and laugh at our antic attempts to survive. Although much of humanity will soon perish of starvation and shame, the rich will carry on the banner of our species, buoyed by a glorious sense of relief that they are not us. Just imagine it. For them, life is no terrifying lurch from one anemic paycheck to the next, where joblessness means ruin, despair, loss of friends, family, home and self-esteem. The very least of their number control vast sums that do not require them to work, and live in houses they actually own. I have never met anyone like this, but I have seen them on tv. It is healthy and right to hate these people.

Experts assure us that this (rece/depre)ssion, like all those before it, will eventually end. This is because they, along with beer companies and cable providers, receive massive government support to keep us from rioting. Some experts say it will take months, others years, but whether they foresee a short or long term crisis couldn't really matter less to them, because they all have well-paying jobs pretending to figure out why the rest of us are out of work.

The First Great Depression ended at the beginning of World War II. This is a total coincidence. True, the war re-employed the entire global workforce, created whole new industries, and killed off over five percent of the world's population freeing up jobs, land and resources. Most agree, however, it was Roosevelt's WPA, by restarting the careers of literally dozens of muralists and playwrights, that was the real engine behind the recovery. Government leaders assure us that resolving the present situation will not require a world-wide military catastrophe. One will soon begin, though, and our economy will once again return to productivity, with the lion's share of credit justly going to President Obama's program of installing solar panels on selected middle schools.

 
 
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08:58 AM on 03/09/2009
Recession is when your nieghbor is unempolyed and depression is when you are.
02:32 AM on 03/09/2009
Economics is far more complex than other sciences, because much of it can't be tested in lab conditions, you have to taken into account things that are difficult to predict, like people's confidence and how they will react months and years in advance, it is these intangibles of human nature and by extension the economy as a whole that makes an economist's job hard. I mean who could have guessed back in the day that banks would give massive amounts of loans to people who had no source of income? Or that people would continue to buy into a clearly overvalued market? Or that the treasury would bailout Bear Stearns but then decide that Lehman Brothers wasn't worth bailing out? These things weren't predictable until they happened.
04:46 AM on 03/09/2009
actually these things are much more predictable than it seems, simply because economics don't seem to believe in or understand the social sciences. meanwhile, to be in a depression I think we need to see negative inflation numbers resulting from (grossly) insufficient liquidity.
04:40 PM on 03/09/2009
Economics cares nothing about these events to begin with. It doesn't have to care much about people's confidence, either, because there are pretty clear numeric criteria for when debt becomes too much debt and risk becomes too much risk. That people don't listen to what economics can say about these things is not economic's fault. In the end, it's not physicis' fault, either, when people are driving too fast on the highway, despite being able to tell at what (rather modest) speed kinetic energy in a car becomes deadly.
12:22 AM on 03/09/2009
I kind of favor a depression. It is a more interesting word with richer connotations.
11:53 PM on 03/08/2009
Somebody needs a shrink. Anybody know a cheap one?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
GOP is full of sound and fury, signifying nothing!
08:54 AM on 03/09/2009
No!
09:46 AM on 03/09/2009
As a matter of fact, I do -and he's looking for work.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
GOP is full of sound and fury, signifying nothing!
11:48 PM on 03/08/2009
Well, one characteristic of a depression is probably a deflationary environment, like we had during the Great Depression. The cost of goods and services get cheaper on a real dollar basis so consumers put off spending and business put off investing until it is even cheaper down the road. I do not think we are really in a deflationary environment yet and the Fed has lowered interest rates as much as they can and expanded the money supply.
photo
leftLibertarian
reefer+java=groovy
10:42 PM on 03/08/2009
Economists have physics envy.
11:54 PM on 03/08/2009
Even a physicist could have told you that you shouldn't buy that home at a price that you couldn't afford. No big deal.
12:05 PM on 03/08/2009
I've heard it said that "Economists were put on the earth to made astrologers look good."
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08:55 PM on 03/07/2009
Three things needed for 1930's style depression:

1. 15+% unemploymwent. We are in striking distance of that number at the rate jobs are collapsing.

2. Bank failures. This will happen, but not in the same way as in 1930 - it will be via nationalization.

3. Dropping prices. We see that with cars and some consumer goods, but not quite everything.

In short, we may - or may not - cross into depression sometime this year.
11:57 PM on 03/08/2009
15% unemployment sounds great to a European. We've been living with much more for virtually forever.

Have you seen dropping prices? I haven't. I just paid $4.50 for a loaf of bread...
08:15 PM on 03/07/2009
Economists, like weather forecasters, practice an inexact science. Somebody once said that a science explains, predicts & controls its subject. That makes it 3 strikes for economics & no balls, 2 strikes & 2 balls for weather forecasting. I'm closing; the siren sounded & I'm going to the storm cellar.
08:07 PM on 03/07/2009
I think this has been well defined for years. A "recession is when your neighbor is out of work. A depressions is when you are out of work" hope that clears things up.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
GOP is full of sound and fury, signifying nothing!
11:48 PM on 03/08/2009
Good point!!
07:15 PM on 03/07/2009
The First Great Depression ended at the beginning of World War II. This is a total coincidence. True, the war re-employed the entire global workforce, created whole new industries, and killed off over five percent of the world's population freeing up jobs, land and resources.
AND AFRICA, LATIN AMERICA, INDIA , AND MANY OTHER PLACES WERE WESTS' COLONIES OR SMI-COLONIES. CHINA AND RUSSIA WERE NOT COMPETITORS AND WERE ENGAGED IN THEIR WARS AND CIVIL WARS. AND MOST OF ALL, DISCREPENCY BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF PRINTED MONEY AND GOODS WERE NOT SO HIGH. THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT:
http://democracyandsocialism.com/Articles/WhyRecession.html
02:37 PM on 03/07/2009
If you join the millions of unemployed in America in the following months. Remember who must accept the majority of the blame for your dilemma? When you can't afford to pay your mortgage, your car payment or put enough food on the table for your kids. 1 in 7 New Construction Jobs Could Go to Illegal Immigrants, when it was stripped from Stimulus. Sen. Harry Reid has caused your pain even though we just lost 641.000 jobs in February. Nothing has changed since last year when 138,000 new foreign workers were added to the job market each month as an average. This week Senate Majority Leader blocked debate on an amendment that would have reauthorized E-Verify for another 5 years.

Most newspapers and Liberal media will not address this obvious answer to the millions jobless today?
07:14 PM on 03/07/2009
Lou Dobbs, is that you?

I'll simplify your comments for everyone else:

"Grrr... mexicans..... harry reid.... grrrr"
02:04 AM on 03/09/2009
Republicans and Democrats had a rare moment of bipartisanship and came up with a solution with the Kennedy McCain Immigration Reform Bill. It was derailed by Limbaugh, Dobbs and people like yourself. Rightwing blowhards more influential than a Republican President, sad state of affairs.

Rightwing media is offering no answers, just "we hate immigrants, get rid of them". Reaganomics has provided a solution in the end, illegal workers are returning home in droves.
02:37 PM on 03/07/2009
With the continued use of procedural tactics, Reid is obstructing efforts to protect American jobs. Reid Pelosi, Robert Menendez, Gutierrez, Feinstein have been his co-conspirators to assassinated (Senate Amendment 604). They want to keep an prolonged force of cheap foreign labor pouring into our country. Following the lead of the anti-US Worker --U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Pres. Obama, Reid and House Speaker Pelosi refuse to respond to the plight of jobless American workers and consider a suspension of most immigration and foreign labor programs. We need E-VERIFY forever--MANDATED FOREVER! Millions of jobless Americans are waiting on E-Verify to open up a workplace for them? Detonate your anger at these Anti-American Senators and call your representatives.

General Washington switchboard number is 202-224-3121 Call President Obama comment line 202-456-1111.