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Neil Barofsky

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Lessons From the Crisis

Posted: 07/07/11 01:58 PM ET

Two of the most striking lessons from the financial crisis and its aftermath -- that the continued existence of financial institutions deemed "too big to fail" seriously threatens the nation's economy and fiscal well-being, and that our financial regulators have a limited ability to oversee those institutions -- appear either to have been forgotten or to have never been learned.

The financial crisis demonstrated that the stability of the country's financial system is vulnerable to the bad decisions of just a handful of executives at the small number of financial institutions that have been effectively guaranteed against failure by the United States government. The continued existence of such institutions, and more particularly the market distortions that accompany the perception of government guarantees, remain, in the words of Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig, "the greatest risk to the U.S. economy."

As has now been well documented, the out-of-control risk accumulation by "too big to fail" firms -- now dubbed "Systemically Important Financial Institutions" or SIFIs -- helped precipitate the financial crisis and necessitate the government's extraordinary multi-trillion dollar effort to prevent financial Armageddon. One part of that response involved the government sponsoring, supporting, subsidizing -- and, when deemed necessary, threatening -- the largest financial institutions to swallow up their struggling counterparts. Indeed, then-President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and current-Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner so zealously sought to serve as matchmaker between these institutions that several of the financial institutions' chief executive officers nicknamed him "eHarmony," after the on-line dating service.

Beginning with the Federal Reserve's support of JP Morgan Chase's acquisition of Bear Stearns and continuing through Treasury's use of Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds (as well as explicit threats to management) to ensure that Bank of America would complete its merger with Merrill Lynch, the government's response to the crisis made the five largest U.S. financial institutions 20% larger, and therefore more dangerous, than they were before the crisis. This historic concentration could have been far higher, of course, if other mergers advocated by the New York Federal Reserve Bank had occurred -- such as between Citigroup and Goldman Sachs (currently the 3rd and 5th largest bank holding companies in the United States) or JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley (ranked 2nd and 6th).

In addition to materially increasing the size of the largest financial institutions, the government's response to the crisis through TARP and other efforts made explicit what many had long suspected -- that certain institutions had amassed so much economic power, both individually and collectively, that the government simply could not allow them to fail. Further, the manner in which the bailouts were conducted served to exacerbate market distortions by protecting against loss other market participants who, in a normally-functioning market without government guarantees, would have imposed the necessary market discipline to compel the largest institutions to contain their excessive accumulation of risk. For example, the bailed-out institutions' creditors and counterparties largely suffered no losses, reinforcing their belief that they too would be protected in a crisis. Similarly, the executives who were responsible for leading their firms into the crisis retained their outsized pre-crisis risk-enhanced payouts (and often their jobs); and shareholders were largely spared the total loss that they would have suffered absent government intervention. In other words, the bailouts largely rewarded stakeholders who relied on the implicit guarantee of a government bailout, and punished only those who had to pay for it -- the taxpayers.

That the country's financial system was (and still can be) brought to its knees by the poor decisions of a small group of financial institution executives is an unconscionable policy failure. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (DFA) was enacted to address both that failure and the exacerbation of moral hazard that accompanied the bailouts, making the broad promise to once and for all "end 'too big to fail'" and the associated "taxpayer funded bailouts."

Today, it is obvious that this effort is failing, at least so far. The market continues to bestow upon the largest financial institutions the substantial benefits that flow from an implicit government guarantee. Indeed, the credit ratings agencies remain committed to granting the largest institutions enhanced credit ratings based on the assumption that they will be bailed out once again, and by some reports, those institutions' funding advantage has actually increased since Dodd-Frank's passage. As a result, one of the significant causes of the 2008 financial crisis -- the market distortions flowing from the perception that the government serves as Wall Street's backstop -- has in many ways only gotten worse. With this perception comes the perverse incentives that encourage executives at these institutions to accumulate more and more risk, both to realize short-term payouts for themselves and to compete with their risk-accumulating, maximum-return-on-equity-seeking SIFI brethren. As a result, the continued failure to take the dramatic steps necessary to alter the market's perception that bailouts will once again be necessary will inevitably encourage behavior that will make another crisis (and the need for further bailouts) far more likely.

While DFA has not convinced the market that its goal of ending bailouts has been met, it did provide regulators with powerful tools, which if used properly and aggressively, could mitigate systemic risk and the need for bailout. For example, DFA directs regulators to use its "living will" and resolution provisions to, directly or indirectly, simplify, shrink, ring-fence or materially change the capital structure of SIFIs before the next crisis strikes in order to reduce their systemic risk.

A fundamental flaw of DFA, however, is its failure to recognize one of the most important lessons of the financial crisis: that regulators are fallible and often lack the political will and capital to successfully regulate systemic risk. Simply giving the regulators a host of powerful tools does not necessarily mean that they will know when and how to use them and have the wisdom to use them appropriately (DFA did create the Office of Financial Research which may, over time, assist regulators in finding pockets of systemic risk in the financial system). More importantly, as recent history has shown, no legislation can confer upon the regulators the fortitude to withstand the intense pressures that will be exerted on them should they attempt to seriously challenge the "too big to fail" business model. After all, these are the exact same regulators whose capture, incompetence, and inability to resist the forces of Wall Street were described by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission as "widespread failures" that "proved devastating" to the financial system.

Furthermore, even if the regulators are up to the task, under DFA, the ultimate responsibility for addressing the problems arising out of "too big to fail" institutions rests largely on the shoulders of the Secretary of the Treasury, whom DFA anoints as the Chairman of the newly-created Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC). In that role, the Treasury Secretary has broad responsibility for DFA's implementation, including final decision-making authority over forcing a SIFI into orderly liquidation, and overseeing the required two-thirds vote of FSOC's members to compel material changes in the size and structure of SIFIs to make them less systemically dangerous. Therefore, even assuming a level of competence and resistance to capture that has not been previously demonstrated by the independent regulatory agencies, the ultimate decision will rest with a political appointee who serves the political interests of the governing administration. Given the economic, political, and lobbying power of the largest financial institutions, the influence that they have traditionally had over Treasury Department decisions, and the political vagaries of the electoral cycle, it appears extremely unlikely that the tough game-changing decisions needed to finally address "too big to fail" will be made from this perch. There certainly has been no compelling action from Treasury since DFA's passage that would suggest otherwise.

Indeed, there appears to be little appetite in Washington for using political capital to address the "too big to fail" problem. Instead, the political focus is understandably on the current fiscal crisis and the need for deficit reduction. The "too big to fail" problem and fiscal reform efforts, however, are very much linked, and failure to address the former may render the reform efforts meaningless. The recent financial crisis is largely responsible for the recent escalation of our national debt, as the government dramatically increased spending on stimulus- and bailout-related programs. Moreover, Standard & Poor's, in its recent warning on the government's credit rating, estimated that the up-front fiscal costs associated with bailing out financial institutions in the next financial crisis could total up to one-third of the nation's GDP -- $5 trillion. An amount even remotely close to this estimate would eclipse the total dollar figures at issue in the proposed fiscal reforms that are the subject of such intense debate today. It is therefore imperative, given DFA's reliance on political decision-making, that eliminating the "too big to fail" institutions' government safety net be included among the political priorities and shared sacrifices necessary for the United States to regain its fiscal footing. Otherwise, even if the two political parties somehow build a bridge to span their differences and reach a fiscal compromise, that bridge could be washed away by the flash flood of red ink required to bail out the banks yet again.

Adapted from the upcoming VoxEU.org eBook, Dodd-Frank: One Year On.

 

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Two of the most striking lessons from the financial crisis and its aftermath -- that the continued existence of financial institutions deemed "too big to fail" seriously threatens the nation's economy...
Two of the most striking lessons from the financial crisis and its aftermath -- that the continued existence of financial institutions deemed "too big to fail" seriously threatens the nation's economy...
 
 
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06:25 PM on 08/12/2011
'Too big to fail' can be a significant issue where individual large incompetent and/or corrupt institutions fail and then cause a domino effect by collapsing other well run companies. This was not the case in the current financial crisis which was the result of a systemic fallacy accepted by all institutions - namely that there would never be a widespread decline in a key asset category like housing. The failure of a single $Trillion bank would actually be easier to contain that the simultaneous failure of a thousand $Billion banks - even though the totals dollars are the same. If there had been a larger number of smaller organizations; then 'too big to fail' would just have become 'too many to fail'.

Even if the US broke up its biggest banks; many of the world's largest banks are not American. Check out:
http://www.economist.com/node/18898228
http://www.bankersalmanac.com/addcon/infobank/bank-rankings.aspx

Only 4 of the world's top banks by Tier-1 capital are American. Only 1 of the top ten by total assets is American. Oher countries will be no more willing to allow the US to dictate the maximum size of their banks than the US would be to allow foreign governments to regulate US banks. If US banks were smaller relative to other world banks; then the US would have less influence on world banking that it does now.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lenguss
06:33 PM on 07/10/2011
"The financial crisis demonstrated that the stability of the country's financial system is vulnerable to the bad decisions of just a handful of executives at the small number of financial institutions that have been effectively guaranteed against failure by the United States government". It is even more vulnerable to the stupidity of many members of the Congress and certainly to the poor decisions of the President and his advisors.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
arkymorgan
Nobody knows the trouble I've been...
06:32 PM on 07/10/2011
With the complete lack of actual economic recovery, I expect in August, it will be 'Too Big To Succeed'.

Wall St.'s arrogant assumption that they could co-opt and corrupt the TP once they gained seats in the House is flawed: this is one genie that is capable of refusing to go back in the bottle. If enough of them vote against raising the debt ceiling, Wall St. will be in very big trouble; trouble the US government may well be incapable of protecting them from.
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laymancanuck
Left of centre, because it works for everyone.
03:44 PM on 07/10/2011
The lack of regulation of the American banking sector still threatens global economic stability.
01:17 PM on 07/10/2011
Great recap. If the SIFIs end up requiring yet another bailout on the nearly broken backs of the taxpayers, this country will most certainly see a second American Revolution. "No taxation to rescue irresponsible SIFIs" - may not being as catchy as the first phrase used, but taxpayers at this point are absolutely mad as hell and simply cannot take this federal government stupidity anymore.
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05:24 AM on 07/10/2011
"Too big to fail" obviously means too big to control. They should have been nationalized-massive opportunity missed.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
FearlessFreep
I'm actually a radical leftist
04:55 PM on 07/10/2011
Cosign!
09:06 PM on 07/09/2011
Been reading June jobs report story that must have been posted on main HuffPo page. Thousands of comments. Lots of lefty, lefty, righty name calling partisan slam banging. Of course, unemployment is a serious concern. However, Barofsky's post is more important because it is more fundamental (but only 190 comments?) Banksters buy politicians in all flavors.
We don't fix a crisis caused by accounting fraud with more accounting fraud.
Without safe, open, honest, responsible financial sector that serves the real economy instead of only themselves, recovery attempts are futile. Wish more HuffPo readers would get their priorities straight and pay attention here. Building a recovery requires a foundation.

Behaviorist psychology says reward what you want more of. We reward the banksters. We'll get more of it.
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DXM
A sane moderate living during insane extreme times
05:11 PM on 07/09/2011
There were no lessons "learned" for two basic reasons: 1) One large group of politicians (mainly Republicans) are philosophically opposed to imposing the needed solution - i.e. more effective regulation of the financial industry. Their "religion" is deregulation and their solution to any problem is more deregulation... even if it was deregulation that caused the problem to begin with. It is an unquestioned belief in their minds and no mountain of facts will change that beliefs. And 2) far too many politicians (Republicans and Democrats) are beholden to large moneyed interests (including the financial sector) to finance their perpetual reelection campaigns. If they impose the needed regulations against the will of the financial sector, they will lose reelection funds which will instead go to their opponent. It is inevitable that we will witness another financial crash like the one we had three years ago, see more bailouts despite voter outrage, generate an even more radical voter bloc(s) and see only lip service paid to reform... again. Then the cycle will repeat. The real reforms that are needed have to start with term limits and limiting the influence of big moneyed interests in out political system... and I'm not holding my breathe that will happen anytime soon.
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
07:08 PM on 07/09/2011
FF. We learned our lesson from FDR, when he shut the banks down his very first day in office. We forgot those lesson after Reagan. Free markets crash and burn, leaving the few own the world. Regulated fair markets are the best. SWAPS are still legal. A bigger crash is inevitable. Congress and Obama are figuring how much to cut spending, which is the wrong question. How do we increase spending, and revenues is the correct question.

Vote for the Progressive Caucus. http://cpc.grijalva.house.gov/
Read their budget! It's the only one that solves the problems.
09:17 PM on 07/09/2011
Deregulation of casino banking works only if you let financial insanity destroy itself. (Unfortunately innocents suffer, too.) Self regulation means going out of business, going bankrupt, getting taken out - not bail outs and Fed lending. Apparently we set up "entitlements" for banksters. Any idea how long until the cycle repeats and we go bust again?
12:35 PM on 07/09/2011
Well, you can't have it both ways. The government used the stronger banks that had not acted foolishly to take over the weak banks that had acted foolishly. Now the same government is complaining the banks are too big. What did they expect?

The next time there is a crisis, and the government asks strong financial institutions for help, they may hear that the answer is no, it's your problem. The last time we took over a weak bank, you fined us and sued us for the actions of the weak bank before we took it over. This time, you can have them yourselves.
12:12 PM on 07/10/2011
Of course you can have it both ways! It's called regulation and it's a process not an event. For almost a half century this process worked. We had a stable financial sector that aggregated never more than 15% of our total economy. Starting with Reagan but greatly accelerated during Clinton and Bush 2.0 the regulations were systematically gutted allowing the big banks to grow without bound into what essentially was gambling with grossly leveraged "assets". This was never about strong banks "saving" weak ones! It was all about cornering market share in the free-for-all derivatives arena. During this time the financial sector self inflated to almost 40% of our total economy.
Sadly nothing has fundamentally changed during the latest crisis foreshadowing another one very soon as tens of trillions of $$ in unresolved toxic assets fester on banks' ledgers.
11:21 AM on 07/09/2011
Obama needs to worry less about his own political career and more about confronting the growing rot inside our corrupt economic and political systems or he will be on the rong side of history. Decades of mismanagement and corruption and incompetence by BOTH parties has left this nation in dire straits. We have to stop. Kicking the can and get REAL change accomplished somehow.
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humanbeing-rick
Born in the USA 1947
11:06 AM on 07/09/2011
I just read a report about how the justice department has issued guidelines for going soft in prosecuting high-level executives, and strike no fault deals instead. These high-powered executives are above the law, and do not get held accountable;e for their misdeeds and crimes. Nothing will change until white-collar criminals are prosecuted commensurate to the amount of damage they cause.
These criminals should be on the FBI most wanted list!

The scoundrels who sold out our nation and ruined our economy should all be searched out and prosecuted. Repay our debts by clawing back their ill gotten gains.
ScaredAcademic
The GOP: Peddling Hate Since '68
07:02 PM on 07/10/2011
And precisely how do you suggest this happens? The entire budget for the litigation end of the DoJ is 3 billion. With 90ish satellite offices, that's about 30 million per office for litigation. The fact is, Angelo Mozillo of Countrywide fame, is worth about $600 million, or 20 DoJ satellite offices (in litigation terms), and the government simply doesn't have enough money to punish all the criminals on Wall Street. A small bit of evidence, Wal-Mart spent 2 million fighting a $7000 fine from OSHA. Bought and paid for with a fat enough wallet to guarantee too big to fall.

Thankfully, our education system is so bad and people are so ignorant that they don't know this repeating record. Some time ago, I read a quote from the New Deal period, a House member or Senator said that we should make a law such that there should be no punishment for crimes committed by those with over $100,000,000 or some such thing. Sadly, there is; it's called the budget because it enshrines "too wealthy to prosecute". We learned nothing from history and have repeated it, and may again.
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Jack Daniels Esq
Hold the ice
06:09 PM on 07/08/2011
We all now know what went wrong - has Obama got the balls to step aside now .... ?
10:35 PM on 07/08/2011
You do remember who was president at the time of the bailouts don't you?

Hint: It wasn't Obama.
01:10 PM on 07/10/2011
Yeah it was Bush and President-Elect Obama strongly supported the TARP bailouts (and Bush's actions), ignored calls for a bigger stimulus and is now once again being held hostage to the Republicans. The only reason that this latest debt crisis is important to Obama and Congress is because it is important to Wall Street - definitely not Main Street who will truly end up suffering the consequences though.
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Aikaterina
A Greek-American living in California
01:56 PM on 07/08/2011
The only solution for such malfeasance is the legal and financial PERSONAL ACCOUNTABILITY of those making decisions and taking actions.

The executives of firms are supposed to lead, set policies, create a climate that would enhance, not threaten the viability-stability-profitability of the firms. They're paid obscene sums for their "leadership," experience, and management capabilities.

The problem is, not one of the financial firms' executives was held accountable: investigated, prosecuted, much less punished for the devastation they created. Like Ronald Reagan, they laud "plausible deniability," and elude the consequences of their own abject failures. No one held them to task for over-leveraging their firms into insolvency. Instead, they all kept their jobs-assets, got bonuses, enjoyed posh junkets, while their victims, the taxpaying public (millions who've lost or fear losing jobs, benefits, homes and life-savings) paid for their "mistakes." reckless, immoral (and in some cases illegal) practices.

In private or small businesses, entrapaneurs, owners and managers work hard, and make decisions about operations. The owners-partners invest their own money, so when their business profits, they're justly rewarded for success. However, if or when things go awry, they alone suffer the consequences, losing money, their jobs-businesses, sometimes facing civil or legal charges (pay-back any ill-gotten gains). If any evidence of a crime or conspiracy exists, they can and are prosecuted.
01:20 PM on 07/08/2011
What is frightening is that financial institutions tells DOJ, when they have made mistakes. This from a NYT article written by Gretchen Morgenson and Louise Story. The DOJ and SEC does little if any enforcement. While on occasion you hear of fines being paid out by JP Morgan Chase and others.

This is part of a new directive put out in the Summer of 2008 that is unchanged to this day.

The analogy would be similar to a person committing a crime.and voluntary going to the police and admitting what they have done wrong. The result of any admonishment would be leniency.

It's one thing to pay a fine for something done wrong, it would be much better if a government agency was more agressive in enforcement. Who are hurt are us people who use financial institutions. Example would be people being kicked out ouf their homes because a mortgage company made mistake in processing loans.Information on website Pro Publica.

In my opinion this is on the verge of corruption when you have financial giants paying off to the government.
12:45 PM on 07/08/2011
The worst and most destructive change since 2008 is the CDS market. It continues to grow and there is no there. If a major bank or country blows up there really is no money behind the CDS bet to payout the insurance owner. The world will implode when CDS counter parties begin to fail!!!