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Senate Races in 2014 Don't Represent the Nation

Senate Races in 2014 Don't Represent the Nation

09.16.2014
Poll consumers should not use nationwide polls to guess what is likely to happen in U.S. Senate races this year. Likewise, no matter what...
HUFFPOLLSTER: Poll Finds Pat Roberts Trailing Independent Candidate

HUFFPOLLSTER: Poll Finds Pat Roberts Trailing Independent Candidate

Mark Blumenthal  09.16.2014
Polling shows the potential for a major upset in Kansas. Both parties back action against ISIS -- but that's where the consensus ends....
Another Poll Shows Increasingly Close Race In New Hampshire

Another Poll Shows Increasingly Close Race In New Hampshire

Mark Blumenthal  09.15.2014
A flurry of new Senate polls released over the weekend suggest a closer race in New Hampshire, an emerging consensus that Hagan is leading...
HUFFPOLLSTER: GOP Leads Nationally, While Democrats Do Well In Senate Polls

HUFFPOLLSTER: GOP Leads Nationally, While Democrats Do Well In Senate Polls

Mark Blumenthal  09.12.2014
A national poll finds the Republicans ahead, while state-level Senate surveys have some good news for Democrats. This year's gubernatorial...
HUFFPOLLSTER: Terrorism Fears Rise, But Few Call It Most Important Issue

HUFFPOLLSTER: Terrorism Fears Rise, But Few Call It Most Important Issue

Mark Blumenthal  09.11.2014
As polls find Americans find increasing concern in reaction to ISIS, very few mention terrorism as the most important problem facing the...
HUFFPOLLSTER: More Say America Is As Unsafe As It's Been Since 9/11

HUFFPOLLSTER: More Say America Is As Unsafe As It's Been Since 9/11

Mark Blumenthal  09.10.2014
Americans are more concerned about their safety from terrorism than they have been since 9/11. Another poll finds Republicans more enthusiastic...
HUFFPOLLSTER: Americans Deeply Worried By ISIS

HUFFPOLLSTER: Americans Deeply Worried By ISIS

Mark Blumenthal  09. 9.2014
Concerns about terrorism are leading to increased support for airstrikes. A new Kansas poll finds incumbent Pat Roberts vulnerable. And...
How HuffPost Forecasts Senate Elections: The Technical Details

How HuffPost Forecasts Senate Elections: The Technical Details

Natalie Jackson  09. 9.2014
The HuffPost Pollster Senate prediction model has three parts: averaging public polls, calculating probabilities race by race and calculating...
HUFFPOLLSTER: New Polls Show How Close The Midterms Remain

HUFFPOLLSTER: New Polls Show How Close The Midterms Remain

Mark Blumenthal  09. 8.2014
A new round of Senate polling shows a stable, slightly GOP-friendly midterm environment. We look at where the polls do, and don't agree,...
How The 'Orman Factor' Muddles The Senate Forecast, And How We've Dealt With That

How The 'Orman Factor' Muddles The Senate Forecast, And How We've Dealt With That

Mark Blumenthal  09. 5.2014
WASHINGTON -- The recent upheaval in the Kansas Senate race has thrown a small wrench into political observers' efforts to forecast which...
HUFFPOLLSTER: How Do You Ask About A Senate Race Like Kansas?

HUFFPOLLSTER: How Do You Ask About A Senate Race Like Kansas?

Mark Blumenthal  09. 5.2014
The upheaval in the Kansas Senate race creates one set of challenges for pollsters and another for forecasters. Americans are more optimistic...
HUFFPOLLSTER: Kansas Senate Race Shakeup Could Leave Roberts Vulnerable

HUFFPOLLSTER: Kansas Senate Race Shakeup Could Leave Roberts Vulnerable

Mark Blumenthal  09. 4.2014
A major shakeup in Kansas throws a wrench into Senate predictions. A handful of new surveys all tell the same story about the Kentucky...
HUFFPOLLSTER: Poll Gives The GOP A National Edge

HUFFPOLLSTER: Poll Gives The GOP A National Edge

Mark Blumenthal  09. 3.2014
A new national poll gives Republicans the upper hand. We explain our new Senate forecast. And if you're looking for a wealth of nonpartisan...
HuffPost's New Senate Forecast Predicts A Nail-Biter

HuffPost's New Senate Forecast Predicts A Nail-Biter

Mark Blumenthal  09. 2.2014
WASHINGTON -- The race for control of the U.S. Senate remains very much in doubt, coming down to a coin flip based on current voter preferences...