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Managing Country Risk.

Blaming China Is Not the Answer

Daniel Wagner | Posted 08.25.2015 | Business
Daniel Wagner

Global investors and lenders have learned relatively little since 2008, creating more bubbles, ignoring more warning signs, and, until recently, continuing to party like it's 1999. The chickens are coming home to roost.

How the Iran Deal May Impact Israel's Influence

Daniel Wagner | Posted 08.18.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

Whether the deal is rejected or not by the U.S. Congress, in the process, conservatives in Israel and in the U.S. will have enhanced their ability to flex their lobbying muscles going forward, and Israel will be well positioned to receive enhanced defense assistance from the U.S.

A Republican President and the Next War

Daniel Wagner | Posted 08.04.2015 | Politics
Daniel Wagner

Nearly all of the Republican presidential candidates have been vociferous in their hatred of the Iran deal, and if a majority Republican Congress is elected in 2016, the Iran deal will probably have a short life -- if it has one at all.

Aquino's Legacy in the Philippines

Edsel Tupaz | Posted 08.03.2015 | World
Edsel Tupaz

In just 5 years, Aquino's accomplishments have exceeded many expectations and have outperformed all previous administrations.

The Trump Phenomenon and U.S. Political Culture

Daniel Wagner | Posted 07.15.2015 | Politics
Daniel Wagner

The only things that really matter in Republican politics today are name recognition, a degree of celebrity, and the ability to make outrageous statements that appeal to a minority of voters.

History Tells Us That 2016 Will See a Recession

Daniel Wagner | Posted 07.09.2015 | Business
Daniel Wagner

As if a reminder were needed, a variety of asset classes are once again frothy and it feels a lot like 2008.

Greece Has Reached Its Threshold of Pain

Daniel Wagner | Posted 07.06.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

It should not have come as a surprise that the majority of Greek voters opted not to accept more externally-imposed austerity, by voting "no" in Sunda...

The EU, the Grexit, and Market Failure

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.26.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

An orderly unwinding of Greece's and Europe's debt is possible. If it could be done in the U.S., when a third of all savings and loans associations failed in the 1980s and 1990s, something similar can be done in Europe.

Backing the Wrong Horse in Iraq

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.16.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

The Obama Administration's announcement that it is sending several hundred additional advisors to Iraq is consistent with America's failed policy in the country.

Rising Nationalism a Threat to Asia

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.08.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

Given its diverse cultural, linguistic and religious mosaic, nationalism is always lurking beneath the surface in Asia.

Grexit's Cost for Europe

Alexis Giannoulis | Posted 06.08.2015 | World
Alexis Giannoulis

While it is obvious that the current painful negotiations between Greece and its creditors must come to a swift conclusion, a Grexit will ultimately cost Europe as much, or more, than a possible 'haircut' of Greek debt.

Why There Is No Stopping the Funding of the Islamic State

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.05.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

The governments of Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have for many years funded anti-Shia political and military movements in the Middle East without any substantial resistance from the international community.

China's Territorial Claim at Risk in the South China Sea

Edsel Tupaz | Posted 05.27.2015 | World
Edsel Tupaz

The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague has announced that in July it will be holding the first hearing on the 2013 arbitration case the Philippines filed against China questioning the legal validity of China's '9-dash line' claim over the South China Sea.

Sudan's Prospects for Reform

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.22.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

In spite of declarations to pursue reform following South Sudan's secession from Sudan in 2011, the political landscape in Sudan has remained bleak, with the government of Omar al-Bashir continuing to repress the country's marginalized populations.

A Premature Peace Deal in the Philippines

Edsel Tupaz | Posted 05.20.2015 | World
Edsel Tupaz

Following a number of recent setbacks in the elusive search for a lasting peace in Mindanao, the Philippine Congress is trying to rush the passage of the Bangsamoro 'Basic Law' -- a major component of the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro -- in the hope of enacting the law prior to a mandatory adjournment of the Congress next month.

China's Growing Global Military Presence: Walk Softly and Carry a Small Stick

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.13.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

The alarm bells that are ringing among various governments and in the press with respect to China's growing global military presence are overdone.

Do Sanctions Work?

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.04.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

Economic sanctions have long been used as a foreign policy tool, sometimes perceived as the tool of choice for nations where diplomacy has failed to yield desired results. Yet as widely used as they are, they generally fail to achieve their objectives.

The Rule of Law Is China's Challenge in the South China Sea

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.26.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

The PRC has become masterful at playing the international system against itself, whether on issues related to maritime law or development finance, as has been skillfully demonstrated with the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

The Impact of Energy on China/Myanmar Relations

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.14.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

The acquisition of energy has become a dominant influence in China's foreign policy orientation generally, and has been a driving force in its relationship with Myanmar in recent years.

What the Islamic State Is Teaching the West About Social Media

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.23.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

Daesh used brutality and fear as a form of seduction, appealing to a sense of individualism while glamorizing death and martyrdom.

Lee Kuan Yew's Legacy

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.19.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

Say what you will about the type of democracy LKY created, and nurtured, after stepping down as Prime Minister in 1990, the net result is an economic miracle unrivaled in Southeast Asia that has punched way above its weight for decades.

India's Political Influence in Asia

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.17.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

As India continues to gain its footing on the global stage, it continues to revise the manner in which it approaches bilateral, regional and international relations.

Implications of Boko Haram's Allegiance to the Islamic State

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.09.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

By pledging allegiance to Daoesh, Boko Haram will surely gain more credibility and attract more recruits, making it even more difficult for the region's governments to successfully combat it.

Rising Government Debt and the Next Global Recession

Daniel Wagner | Posted 04.11.2015 | Business
Daniel Wagner

The recently released report from the McKinsey Global Institute on global debt is an important, and sobering, look at how little the world appears to have learned from the Global Recession, and just how dangerous levels of sovereign and consumer debt have become in the interim.

Mr. Putin Will Not Change Course in Ukraine or Syria

Daniel Wagner | Posted 04.07.2015 | World
Daniel Wagner

Given the fractured and evolving global political landscape, both sides, and neither side, will achieve all of its objectives. Swimming against the tide has its own appeal at a time when virtually everything about the world order seems to be up for grabs.