Despite my concern that no nominee should be that confident of victory, I have no choice but to stick to the data and models. My data and models have proven correct over and over, while hunches and guts checks are prone to failure.
Can networking help us predict the contents of the envelopes? Let's base our algorithm on the assumption that it helps to have connections in Hollywood. More specifically, let's assume that better-connected actors will fare better in the final tally.
Good thing Chris Rosen has a jolly sense of humor. Soon after Michael Hogan and I raise him up as a model of Oscar punditry for picking Argo early on to win Best Picture, we tear him down in this webcam chat.