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Accuracy

Historical Accuracy as Prison?

Megan Smolenyak | Posted 04.19.2015 | Entertainment
Megan Smolenyak

Bilge Ebiri opens his article, "Oscar Films and the Prison of Historical Accuracy," saying, "You know it's Oscar season when the historical-accuracy hit squads show up." The genealogist in me bristles.

Images and Media Ethics: How Much, How Far?

Magda Abu-Fadil | Posted 01.03.2015 | Media
Magda Abu-Fadil

What is it about pictures that prompts journalists, activists, and social media users to take liberties with people's privacy, lives and destinies, and be sloppy in what they publish?

LA Port Strike: 'A Billion Here, A Billion There...'

James Bryson Hyatt | Posted 02.04.2013 | Media
James Bryson Hyatt

$1-billion-a-day figure estimating the costs of the Port of Los Angeles/Port of Long Beach strike was trotted out quickly and promoted widely, because it's attention-getting. And possibly, because it serves certain political objectives. But it's not accurate.

Mark Blumenthal

Poll Accuracy Held Steady In 2010

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- For all the challenges facing pre-election polls -- and there are many -- the average accuracy of statewide surveys last year matched th...

Pollster's Mark Blumenthal Challenges Nate Silver's Method At FiveThirtyEight

Pollster.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

For better or worse, FiveThirtyEight's prominence makes these ratings central to our conversation about how to interpret and aggregate polls, and I ha...

In Georgia, The Polls Get It Right

Harry Enten | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Harry Enten

Polling critics are fast to point out when polls get it wrong, so let us point out an instance of the polls getting it right. In Tuesday night's Georg...

Column on NCPP/AAPOR Effect & Answering Silver

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

My column for this week follows up on last week's topic from a different angle: Nate Silver's intriguing finding that as a group, pollsters that are m...

Rating Pollster Accuracy: How Useful?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I have been posting quite a bit lately on the subject of the transparency of Nate Silver's recently updated pollster ratings, so it was heartening to ...

Visualizing Poll Accuracy In Massachusetts

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Regular readers may recall my personal pet peeve about rushing to quick conclusions about the "most accurate pollster" in any given election. One of m...

How Did the Polls Do in 2009?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I had intended to post a "quick" summary of what Tuesday night's results say about how the polls did, but like a thread pulled on a sweater, my outlin...

A Question I Won't Answer

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

"So who was the most accurate pollster yesterday?" If I had $100 for every time I've been asked that question by a reporter on the Wednesday morning a...

2009 Pre-Election Wrap

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Since 2002 (and probably earlier), you could do pretty well in predicting the outcomes of races for President, Senate, Governor and even the U.S. Hous...

AAPOR09: Chase Harrison

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I interviewed Chase Harrison, preceptor at the Program on Survey Research at Harvard University, on his research into the accuracy of pre-election pol...

"Hitting a Bullet with a Bullet" - A Cautionary Tale

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

In the eight weeks since the elections, I have seen a fair number of self-congratulatory press releases from pollsters boasting of their successes dur...

NCPP's Report on Pollster Performance

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Yesterday, the National Council on Public Polls (NCPP) posted its biennial review of poll performance as a three-part set of PDF documents: Tables sco...

Pollster Accuracy and the National Polls

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

It started not long after the sunrise last Wednesday morning. One reporter after another wanted to know: Which poll or pollster was most accurate? Whi...