April was a pretty miserable month for Barack Obama, mostly due to the high price of gasoline at the pump. But May is already shaping up to be one of Obama's best months ever, for one very obvious reason.
Obama just had his most stable month ever in the public opinion polls, capping off a remarkable year of polling stability. Were you to just read the headlines or listen to the soundbites, you may have a different impression.
Augusts haven't been very kind to Obama. Two years ago, August was "Reverend Wright" month. Last year, August was "death panel" month. By that measure, at least, this past August wasn't actually all that bad.
Obama seems to have hit a plateau in his approval ratings, which have remained largely unchanged for the past three months. Could it be that we've all just made up our minds about the job the president is doing?
Will Obama's presidency wind up charting a similar course as Carter, or will he recover as Reagan did? Only a fool would even contemplate making such a prediction at this point, that's all that really can be said.
Everyone was looking for a healthy bounce in Obama's poll numbers after health reform passed. This bounce has either failed to materialize yet, or is so gradual it likely won't end up being called a "bounce."