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Investing Heavily in Romney: Was It a Good Bet?

David Rothschild | Posted 11.27.2013 | Politics
David Rothschild

We cannot say for sure if this market was manipulated, but if manipulation could be successful, it would be worth it. If a few million dollars could boost fundraising and morale, than it would be a good investment next to one more television advertisement.

Government Goes After Prediction Markets and Research

David Rothschild | Posted 01.30.2013 | Politics
David Rothschild

Intrade goes to great lengths to transparently define the contracts in their markets for hosts of potential pitfalls: candidate deaths, calling outcomes, etc. The investors in this market are fully aware of what they are trading and the risks associate with that.

Election 2012: The Wisdom of the Crowd

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 01.26.2013 | Politics
Leighton Vaughan Williams

While an expert may know more than anyone else in the room, he is unlikely to know more than the room as a whole, to be wiser or cleverer than the crowd.

Prediction Markets: The Other Big Winners on Election Night

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 01.08.2013 | Business
Leighton Vaughan Williams

Mr. Obama was a big winner on election night. But there were others. Statistical modelling was one such winner, and the other big winners were the prediction markets, which had it right all along.

Who Is Winning the Race for the White House?

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 12.30.2012 | Politics
Leighton Vaughan Williams

The conventional wisdom is that the betting markets are pointing to the re-election of the president while the polls apparently have Mitt Romney as the narrow favorite. So what's the evidence?

How Gamblers -- History's Most Accurate Election Forecasters -- Are Betting on 2012

Keith Thomson | Posted 12.24.2012 | Politics
Keith Thomson

I don't like uncertainty, and the current presidential polls are a hotbed of uncertainty. Fortunately there are veritable election oracles I can turn to instead: gamblers.

Did Biden Beat Ryan?

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 12.12.2012 | Business
Leighton Vaughan Williams

So what can we learn from the in-running markets about the debate between Vice-President Joe Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan? It is in fact possible to visualize the shape a contest is taking by simply following the flows of money tracing their way through the relevant markets.

How Tim Geithner Can Guarantee a 43% Return on Your Money This Year

Keith Thomson | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Keith Thomson

I asked one of America's foremost horse racing handicappers to take time out from the grandstand and bet on political outcomes. What's his line on Geithner?

The Most Accurate Election Forecast? Hardcore Gamblers

Keith Thomson | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Keith Thomson

British bookmaking site Betfair had all 50 states right in 2004. As did rival site Intrade. As one gambler told me, "A pollster can still bill for an inaccurate poll. Bookmakers must make an accurate line or they lose -- period."

Is The Media's Manipulation of Market News to Blame For The Current Market Meltdown?

Max Keiser | Posted 05.25.2011 | Business
Max Keiser

Markets need transparency if benefits of the "invisible hand" are to be distributed to the widest section of the population. This interferes with the agenda of America's copyright, news monopolists and bankers who support them.