Capital outflows from emerging market economies have substantially accelerated since last year. The cycle of intense debt leveraging that took place in those economies after the 2008 crisis has also started to reverse.
Will those edgy portfolio investors stampede indiscriminately out of--and wreak havoc among--middle- and low-income countries if the Fed lifts interest rates this September, for the first time in almost a decade?
Global financial integration and the linkages between the financial and the real sides of economies are sources of huge policy challenges. A newly released book sheds new light on those multiple challenges.
Rethinking and reforms are both taking place. But we still do not know the final destination, be it for the redefinition of monetary policy, or the contours of financial regulation, or the role of macroprudential tools.
As the year draws to a close, the recovery in many advanced economies is at a standstill, with some investors even exploring the implications of a potential breakup of the euro zone, and the real possibility that conditions may be worse than we saw in 2008.
What drives the investment decisions of investors with a longer time horizon? Our research found these investors generally do not look at differences in interest rates among countries when deciding where to invest.
Governments have five tools to adjust to capital flows: monetary policy, fiscal policy, foreign exchange intervention, prudential tools, and capital controls. The challenge is to find, for each case, the right combination.
The classic safe-haven investment has seen a strong uptrend in value since the autumn of 2008. Various factors have been credited as drivers of this move, but what is the risk gold could lose its luster?
Banks -- and the loans they provided in the run-up to the crisis -- are at the heart of Europe's problems today. Policies to promote deeper integration of Europe's banks should be part of the solution.
The current international monetary system has certainly delivered a lot. But it also has flaws that need to be fixed, especially if the next phase of globalization is to succeed in bringing a strong and broad-based rise in living standards.
Reform of the international monetary system is wide-ranging and complex. Global debate is only just starting. But we must all recognize that this is not something academic or abstract. We need concrete ideas.
In emerging markets, policymakers must act now to avoid future crises. It is important to maintain the appropriate mix of macroeconomic and prudential financial policies to deal with the challenges posed by capital inflows.
The crisis has forced economists and policy makers to go back to their drawing boards. Where did they go wrong, and what implications does the crisis have for both macroeconomic theory and macroeconomic policy making?
There was consensus in Daejeon this week that Asia has emerged from the crisis as an economic powerhouse. While initially hit hard, Asia has been able to bounce back quickly and return to a strong growth path.
How Europe deals with fiscal and financial problems, how advanced countries proceed with fiscal consolidation, and how emerging countries rebalance their economies going forward will determine if we see recovery or stagnation.