I'm not a statistician. I'm the author of the picture book Martha Ann's Quilt for Queen Victoria. Many bloggers and librarians focus on mock Caldecott award winners. I try to guess who will win the Coretta Scott King Awards.
While the ALA awards for children's books and media may be the most well-known, there are many other worthy awards for children's books as well. All of these are excellent sources for those looking for great reads for the children in their lives.