I am forecasting that 41.3 percent of those eligible to vote will cast a ballot in the 2010 election and that 28.8 percent of those votes will either be cast in-person prior to Election Day or by mail.
Party registration is only a clue to how a voter will vote. A registered Democrat is free to vote for Sharron Angle. However, these late breaking in-person early voting numbers must be encouraging for Harry Reid.
Where are we on early voting and what does it tell us about possible election outcomes? There are some interesting developments within key states that provide clues as to who is currently ahead in some races.
Nate Silver has posted an analysis of early voting partisan registration statistics, in states that report them, drawing upon a story by Molly Ball in Politco. Here are the three most damning errors in Nate's and Molly's analyses.
The Democrats are using President Obama to rally early voters, and to recruit volunteers to help with the early-voter ground game. What remains to be seen is if the Democrats' organization can match the Republicans' enthusiasm and money.
What do the numbers tell us so far? For one, early voting continues along at a strong clip. If early voting continue at this pace, some states and localities appear poised to easily meet or exceed their 2008 levels.
Something is afoot in Iowa. Not only have nearly 120,000 voters already cast their ballot, registered Democrats are returning their mail ballots at a higher rate than Republicans in nearly every Iowa county.
Something special is going on in Cuyahoga and Franklin counties. Other places around the country are reporting low single-digit early voting rates. In contrast, more than 112,000 votes have already been cast in these counties.
As the battle heats up to pass meaningful health care reform with a robust public option, a video has emerged that captures the raw emotions of Americans suffering under the cruelty of the current system.