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Economic Forecasts

The Economy in 2016

John Ducas | Posted 01.16.2017 | Teen
John Ducas

As a young person, I have a great interest in understanding how the economy performs and what drives movements in the markets. Every year I outline my views on how the economy will pan out the following year.

Four Forces Facing the Global Economy

Olivier Blanchard | Posted 06.14.2015 | Business
Olivier Blanchard

Behind the numbers lies an unusually complex set of forces shaping the world economy. Some, such as the decline in the price of oil and the evolution of exchange rates, are highly visible. Some, from crisis legacies to lower potential growth, play more of behind-the-scenes role but are important nevertheless. Let me briefly review them.

The Year Ahead

Omar K. Alghanim | Posted 03.07.2015 | Business
Omar K. Alghanim

As we head into a brand new year, the headlines are awash in news about our twin heartbreaks here in the Middle East. Oil is one part of the equation. The other is also commanding daily attention: I'm referring, of course, to the geopolitical drama involving Iraq and Syria.

Legacies, Clouds and Uncertainties

Olivier Blanchard | Posted 12.08.2014 | Business
Olivier Blanchard

Among advanced countries, the United States and the United Kingdom in particular are leaving the financial crisis behind and achieving decent growth. Even for them however, potential growth is lower than it was in the early 2000s.

Economic Forces Are Mightier Than the Sword

Jack Nadel | Posted 10.29.2014 | Small Business
Jack Nadel

We should do more to help potential entrepreneurs in places where domestic economies are too weak to assist. If we give this effort a higher priority in our country's foreign policy, we can create a healthier balance of world commerce.

The Slow Recovery Continues

Olivier Blanchard | Posted 09.23.2014 | Business
Olivier Blanchard

The recovery continues, but it remains weak, indeed a bit weaker than we forecast in April. We have revised our forecast for world growth in 2014 from 3.7 percent in April to 3.4 percent today. This headline number makes things look worse than they really are.

As Demand Improves, Time to Focus More on Supply

Olivier Blanchard | Posted 06.08.2014 | Business
Olivier Blanchard

The dynamics that were emerging at the time of the October 2013 World Economic Outlook are becoming more visible. Put simply, the recovery is strengthening.

Recovery Strengthening, But Much Work Remains

Olivier Blanchard | Posted 03.23.2014 | Business
Olivier Blanchard

Among advanced economies, it is stronger in the US than in Europe, stronger in the euro core than in Southern Europe. In most advanced economies, unemployment remains much too high. And downside risks remain.

Will Things Economic Soon Be Looking Up?! Sorry, I Don't See It...

Jared Bernstein | Posted 01.25.2014 | Business
Jared Bernstein

We know that the economy's been growing and that company profits have been high. There's nothing wrong with profits, but there's definitely something wrong when they fail to lead to employment and earnings gains for the broad majority.

Global Outlook -- Still Three Speeds, But Slower

Olivier Blanchard | Posted 07.09.2013 | Business
Olivier Blanchard

After years of strong growth, the BRICS in particular are beginning to run into speed bumps. This means that the focus of policies will increasingly need to turn to boosting potential output growth or, in the case of China, to achieving more sustainable and balanced growth.

Economic Storm Clouds Ahead

Robert Reich | Posted 07.31.2013 | Business
Robert Reich

Economic forecasters exist to make astrologers look good. But the recent jubilance is enough to make even weather forecasters blush. "Just look at the bull market! Look at home prices! Look at consumer confidence!"

The World's Three Speed Economic Recovery

Olivier Blanchard | Posted 06.16.2013 | Business
Olivier Blanchard

Emerging market and developing economies are still going strong, but in advanced economies, there appears to be a growing bifurcation between the United States on the one hand, and the Euro area on the other.

Worms, Pond Scum, and Economists

Dean Baker | Posted 05.18.2013 | Business
Dean Baker

The failure to see the largest asset bubble in the history of the world, coupled with the failure to prescribe an effective remedy to deal with the damage, should be sufficient to earn the economics profession the contempt of right-thinking people everywhere.

5 Things Consumers Should Expect From the Housing Market In 2013

Dr. Stan Humphries | Posted 02.26.2013 | Business
Dr. Stan Humphries

In 2012, the national housing market finally turned a corner. We've now experienced 13 straight months of home value appreciation. So what will 2013 have in store?

The End of Growth

Robert Walker | Posted 01.28.2013 | Politics
Robert Walker

When environmentalists ring alarm bells about what we are doing to the Earth, most Americans hit the snooze button, but when one of the world's most respected financial analysts says that climate change and resource scarcity are imperiling economic growth, maybe it's time to wake up.

Home Prices Steadily Rise

Reuters | Posted 10.28.2012 | Money

(Adds details, market reaction, quote) NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. home prices rose more than expected in June, the fifth month ...

Even A Big Pile Of Money Won't Keep You From Freaking Out

The Huffington Post | Alexander Eichler | Posted 08.01.2012 | Business

You know things are bad when even millionaires are worried about the economy. Millionaire confidence fell to a nine-month low in July, according to...

World Faces Weak Economic Recovery

Olivier Blanchard | Posted 09.15.2012 | Business
Olivier Blanchard

The world recovery can continue, and can strengthen. The right pace of fiscal consolidation, continuing expansionary monetary policy, getting the financial sector back to health to decrease borrowing costs, and solidarity, especially within the Euro zone, are all of the essence.

What the Stock Market is Telling Us

Michael Farr | Posted 07.03.2012 | Business
Michael Farr

The breakdown of S&P 500 returns by sector is once again telling us something. This time the breakdown is confirming what the incoming economic data over the past several weeks has been saying all along: global economic growth is slowing.

Forecasting for Failure

Evan Soltas | Posted 07.04.2012 | Business
Evan Soltas

The Congressional Budget Office is forecasting the slowest real recovery in the post-war era, and given trend inflation which does not rise above 2 percent, the slowest nominal recovery in the postwar era.

Mark Gongloff

The Bond Market Is Trying To Tell Us Something | Mark Gongloff | Posted 02.07.2012 | Business

For the past few months, the stock market has been behaving like a reveler who's had just a little too much to drink, and the bond market has been beh...

Less Chance Of Double Dip Recession, But 2012 Forecast Still Fairly Gloomy

The Huffington Post | Alexander Eichler | Posted 12.29.2011 | Business

The economy might avoid a worst-case scenario next year -- but that doesn't mean things are on track to go well. In a poll published Wednesday by C...

Strong Policy Action -- The Essence of Restoring Global Economic Hope

Olivier Blanchard | Posted 11.21.2011 | Business
Olivier Blanchard

The global economy has entered a dangerous new phase. The recovery has weakened considerably, and downside risks have increased sharply. Strong policies are urgently needed to improve the outlook and reduce risks.

What Next for Economic Growth?

Jared Bernstein | Posted 09.18.2011 | Business
Jared Bernstein

2011-07-19-ern.pngI don't mean to be gloomy, but I fear the latest predicted economic growth patterns are going to come later, rather than sooner.

Janell Ross

Unemployment Crisis Puts Global Recovery At Risk, OECD Says | Janell Ross | Posted 07.25.2011 | Business

Global recovery might be under way, but so long as unemployment remains elevated worldwide, recovery will remain fragile at best, a new report finds. ...