Is there an inflation issue in the US? People are always talking about prices going up. We see it and feel it in prices every day. Yet, when we hear or read about the latest inflation numbers, they are always low. We feel inflation but it is not reflected in the numbers.
Economic forecasters exist to make astrologers look good. But the recent jubilance is enough to make even weather forecasters blush. "Just look at the bull market! Look at home prices! Look at consumer confidence!"
So what type of business conditions will greet Americans this fall? The precise answers to those questions will probably play out over time. But these key economic signposts are likely to help determine them.
The breakdown of S&P 500 returns by sector is once again telling us something. This time the breakdown is confirming what the incoming economic data over the past several weeks has been saying all along: global economic growth is slowing.