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Election Analysis

Revolts, Reforms and Divides: An Independent Look at the 2016 Presidential Election by Jacqueline Salit

Jacqueline Salit | Posted 11.21.2016 | Politics
Jacqueline Salit

One of the (very!) few pollsters who got the presidential election right, Patick Caddell, had this to say the day before the election: "The political ...

Electoral Math: Trump Collapses

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.18.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

There is an excellent chance that when Republicans look back at the 2016 presidential election, this will be the week they'll point to when Donald Trump completely collapsed.

2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Begins Her Debate Bounce

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.04.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

It's time to take a look at the presidential race once again, and I have to begin with a program note. Up until now, I've been writing these columns every two weeks, but from now until the election, they'll appear each Monday like clockwork, since the race is about to head into the homestretch.

Hillary's Shrinking Lead

Chris Weigant | Posted 09.20.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Hillary Clinton's lead in the race for Electoral College votes is shrinking. In fact, it has been shrinking for a solid month now. Two weeks ago, this hadn't really benefited Donald Trump much. Now, however, Trump seems to be surging in the polls while Hillary slides even further.

2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Slides Back

Chris Weigant | Posted 09.06.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

As things stand, Clinton still has a healthy 58 percent of the total, while Trump has 37 percent. In two weeks, Clinton has lost eight points while Trump gained three points. The extra five points is now in the tied category.

2016 Electoral Math -- Hillary Moves Up

Chris Weigant | Posted 08.23.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Hillary Clinton wins with a landslide of votes in the Electoral College. Clinton's percent of the total is 66.5, roughly twice Trump's 33.5 percent. Currently, no states are tied.

Trump's Values Are Simple Yet Widely Misunderstood

Jon Deutsch | Posted 04.08.2016 | Politics
Jon Deutsch

There is a shortage of analysis on Trump that would enable us to understand how we should interpret him in order to best assess how he could function as President of the United States.

Elizabeth Warren's Winning Ways

Mike Lux | Posted 01.24.2015 | Politics
Mike Lux

For those candidates who took the Elizabeth Warren message and stayed strongly with it throughout their campaign, they didn't fade and they won tough races, or races that could have been a lot tougher if they had faltered.

Unleashing the Democratic Tsunami in 2016

Mike Lux | Posted 01.06.2015 | Politics
Mike Lux

We can't go into the 2016 cycle thinking that Republican arrogance and demographics alone will save us. We have to have a strategy that simultaneously fires up our base and appeals to middle- and working-class swing voters.

Democrats Failed to Tell Their Story

Mike Lux | Posted 01.05.2015 | Politics
Mike Lux

What Democrats failed to get in 2014 is that every election is now a national election, and the party with the stronger narrative -- the party on offense, not defense -- will win most of the competitive races.

'We Never Saw It Coming': The Psychology of Missed Predictions

Neal Roese | Posted 01.25.2013 | Science
Neal Roese

Faced with an event that negative -- a defeat or a failure -- a person may claim it to be completely unpredictable, that no one could possibly have seen it coming -- a case when hindsight bias seems not only to be absent, but even reversed.

Final Electoral Math -- My 2012 Election Picks

Chris Weigant | Posted 01.23.2014 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Today, we're just going to throw caution to the wind, and go ahead and predict the outcome of tomorrow night's returns.

2012 Electoral Math -- One Week Out

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.29.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures. If the numbers are bad, it could give Romney the last-second momentum he needs. If the numbers are good, Obama could waltz to victory.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Debate Cliff

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.15.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Mitt Romney got an enormous bounce out of the first debate. This translated into him flipping two states to his column -- something he hasn't been able to do in quite a while.

2012 Electoral Math -- Debate Effects Remain to Be Seen

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

National polls have pulled back into a neck-and-neck contest. This is all fun for the pundits, who (pre-debate) were on the verge of declaring the race all but over (and, hence, boring), but we hasten to remind everyone that this is not how we elect presidents.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama Solidifies Bounce

Chris Weigant | Posted 11.26.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Of course, we are heading into debate season, so things could always change, but at the moment it is looking decidedly good for an Obama win. Here's how the election would break down if held today.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Bounce

Chris Weigant | Posted 11.17.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The big question in the next few weeks will be if Obama's impressive convention bounce will hold or fade away. This will set the stage for the first presidential debate, which could prove to be decisive.

2012 Electoral Math -- Pre-Convention Baseline

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.22.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Now is a good time to look at the state of the race, to establish a baseline to measure all this expected frenzied movement.

2012 Electoral Math -- Ups and Downs

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we took such a snapshot, roughly three weeks ago, both candidates have shown some firming up of their positions, but the good news for both candidates is mixed with some softening as well.

2012 Electoral Math -- Mixed Pictures

Chris Weigant | Posted 09.17.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we checked in, two states have moved toward Romney, two states have moved toward Obama, and three states have mixed news.

2012 Electoral Math

Chris Weigant | Posted 08.25.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

This column series will examine the race between Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama in the only way that is useful for actually predicting its outcome: a state-by-state look at how each candidate is doing. National polling is almost completely useless in election prognostication.

Sunshine State Results Not as Sunny as Romney Reps

Brian Ross | Posted 04.03.2012 | Politics
Brian Ross

Mitt Romney got the headline from Florida that he was seeking out of the New York Times: "Romney Wins Big Over Gingrich." That's one way of looking at...

The Election Where Everybody Was Right, but Nobody Was Listening

Sheri and Allan Rivlin | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Sheri and Allan Rivlin

The Democrats and Tea Partiers are both likely to misread this election. Just like 2008, this election was a rejection of one political ideology, not an embrace of the other.

The Re-Positioning Tango

Mike Lux | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mike Lux

Self-identified liberals are an important part of the Democratic base, but they sure aren't the only part, or even the biggest one. Most African-Americans, who voted 90% Democratic, do not describe themselves as liberals. Neither do most Hispanics.

Nationalizing the Election in a Bad Year

Mike Lux | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mike Lux

Democrats really need to spend some serious time rethinking how they operate in the down cycles, and how they can promote and defend their brand every single election.