The flip state is Ohio at 77.3 percent for Obama and 22.7 percent for Romney. This is a great, simple approximation for the likelihood of the election.
Obama is ahead in every single battleground state -- whether by a hair or outside the margin of error. This isn't to suggest that every state will go his way, but this does say something about the state of the race.
As you may have heard, it's been a bad week for Mitt Romney. And while he's taken a tumble in the polls, nationally it's still a fairly close race. But both nationwide and in some key swing states, Obama's lead among women has widened considerably. Women are behind the Obama surge.
We can talk about 47 percent, the Libya stumbles, the lack of message discipline and a weak convention, but the simple fact is that the president and his team have had a better strategy than Team Romney from Day 1 and they have executed it to perfection.
As the summer turned towards Labor Day, Obama gained ground every day that Romney did not. Time is kind to incumbents and leading candidates. The burden is now completely on Romney and/or Ryan to move the needle in their four debates
Over the remainder of the election campaign, HuffPost will be presenting graphical summaries of the modeling I've been doing behind-the-scenes for them over the last few months. Some additional background on how it all works seems warranted.
The Presidential campaign is now careening from convention to gaffe to speech to debate, and Congressional and Senate races are up on the air in earne...
A key question is whether the Obama surge in national polling is showing in the swing-states? With the conventions behind us, we can expect more swing state polling this week and beyond.
Two weeks of Republican and Democratic conventioneering concluded last night with President Obama's speech accepting the nomination of his party. Whether one considered his speech brilliant oratory or just a good effort, in many ways it was typical of speeches given by incumbent presidents.
The Romney vote share has been quietly and slowly increasing for a month. This under-the-radar shift is being driven in part by a simple line from a straightforward political speech. And it has the potential to be a game changer.
If you have limited time to devote to following the presidential election this fall, I suggest you follow the data on just three states: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Mitt Romney's only likely path to victory over Barack Obama is to win those three states.
The Obama-Romney margin at the national level, 1.3 percentage points as of today, is right at the edge of conventional levels of statistical significance; the probability that Obama leads Romney in national level voting intentions is about 80 percent.
If this election had been held in the fall of 2011, Obama would have lost. But in the late summer of 2012 he is in reasonably good shape.
Polling shows more support for stricter gun laws than press coverage would suggest. A few new polls show continued broad support for a variety of stronger gun laws, and for the presidential candidates to devote more time to this issue.
For the most part this is to be expected, as Obama has a significant advantage in the youth vote in the general electorate as well, but to see this preference among young service members and veterans may mean that the era when it seemed that Republicans had a lock on the military vote is coming to a close.
While there are ways to present information more effectively, the extensive social science research we review in our New America report suggests that misperceptions are very difficult to counter.