When you consider the drop-off voters, women, Latinos and cell-only houses, there are plenty of ways for public pollsters to miss these voters who are predominantly supporting Udall.
The challenges of polling Latino voters have received less attention in 2014, because there are fewer competitive states and districts this cycles where Latinos are positioned to be influential. A notable exception is Colorado.
Iowa remains ground zero for the fight for the Senate, and for early voting mobilization activities. As of Friday, 119,141 Iowans had voted in the 2014 general election, representing 10.5 percent of the total vote in 2010.
The second week of early voting has ended and 88,371 people have voted in all reporting states, with 31 days to go until Election Day on Nov. 4. Early vote should easily eclipse 2010 in absolute terms, and likely signals higher overall turnout.
Regardless of how they choose to, pollsters are going to be forced to innovate if they want to continue providing accurate advice to their candidates and campaigns.
Pollsters don't typically report their expected turnout, but any number of polls are showing Democratic candidates doing better among registered voters than likely voters. The higher the turnout, the more the electorate will look like profile of registered voters, which could be decisive for who wins Iowa and Senate control.
Despite the public's overall belief in the Constitution as an enduring document, the data indicate that Americans are quite willing to use the amendment process to make policy changes.
On May 14, 1882, unionized workers in New York City held a parade and picnic, and the seeds of the Labor Day holiday were planted. About 50 years late...
Here's a tough question for the left: Can Republicans still be successful even as they continue to alienate a majority of the electorate? In midterms, the answer is undoubtedly yes.
The work that political pollsters do for free could be considered a benefit to society. People need to know how their political candidates are ranked by the public so that they can make better voting decisions and bring better-suited people to political power.
In the last decade, more women were killed by an intimate partner using a gun than troops killed in action in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Come November, women across party lines may reward candidates working to solve problems, rather than leaning on partisan perceptions.
Just as traditionalists once poo-pooed telephone surveys over face-to-face, so too must the modern American political pollster embrace new methodologies or risk finding themselves the punchline to the next Eric Cantor joke.
Obama has gained back all the ground he had lost and then some (well, "and then a little bit more" would be more accurate...). He still hasn't quite made it back to where his poll numbers were before the Obamacare website rollout, but if the trendlines continue in May, he is at least within reach of this goal for the first time since October.
Consistent with conventional wisdom, the youngest cohorts appear more Democratic-leaning than the national electorate as a whole, whereas the oldest cohorts appear more Republican-leaning.
Southern Whites didn't vote for Obama (and by association, won't vote for Democrats). So argues the New York Times' Nate Cohn in a provocative piece entitled "Southern Whites' Loyalty to G.O.P. Nearing That of Blacks to Democrats."
If we want a clearer picture of emerging trends and the next economy, we need to better understand the effects of automation on employment, sharing on existing business models and household production on political views.