We might pick up a few very late polls this election morning, but even so, it is well and truly time to list some forecasts. The model confidently predicts that Obama wins the election, with the probability of 270 Electoral College votes or more now up to 91.4 percent.
6:00 p.m. polls close in most of Indiana and just over half of Kentucky. If one candidate is doing well enough against the projections, the networks could call the Indiana statewide races soon after 6 p.m.
Will we see a 2012 Republican wave where Democrats are swept out because Barack Obama was elected to fix a broken economy and four years later the economy is doubtlessly still struggling?
In the latest YouGov/Xbox poll, the pivotal state of Ohio showed slightly more Romney supporters than Obama supporters. But, when asked who they expect to win Ohio, the same respondents predicted Obama would win their state.
A good example of how voters process new information during a campaign comes from a UMass poll we conducted in early October.
What has been the cumulative impact of these changes over the last month? Overall, Romney has improved roughly 2 percentage points with Xbox LIVE users, and those gains occurred almost entirely during the period between the first two debates.
As we enter the final week of the campaign, an obvious question to ask is how to convert the state-by-state probabilities of an Obama or Romney lead in the polls to probabilities that Obama or Romney will win the state and the election itself.
As we're now in the final stretch of political Armageddon -- judging from the intensity and hype of most folks finally paying attention -- there's that ongoing discussion about the "undecideds."
This graph shows point estimates of the survey house effects produced by my model (as of the evening of October 23, 2012). Negative house effects means that the pollster skews in a pro-Romney direction; positive house effects means that the pollster tends to overstate support for Obama.
he vice presidential debate stopped the bleeding for Obama and the second presidential debate on Oct. 16 gave Obama a few strong days. During this entire time the number of undecided voters has slowly drifted downward.
Where Romney's winning, he's almost always winning by a lot. Obama's leading in more than a few states by just a little. But the estimates for each state are just that -- estimates -- and are accompanied by uncertainty.
A stronger Democratic convention, Romney's 47 percent calamity, Obama's lackluster debate, and Biden's strong performance have all contributed to a fluid race. But contrary to some coverage and Democratic handwringing, one thing that hasn't moved as much is the gender gap.
This election is roughly back to where it was in May of this year before Team Obama decimated Romney with negative ads. With 21 days to go, this race is essentially tied.
As if nervous Democrats didn't have enough to worry about, on the morning of the second presidential debate, USA Today and the Gallup Poll released a new poll of 12 swing states that shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by 4 points among likely voters.
On the eve of the second presidential debate, it is helpful to take stock of what current polling is indicating about the campaign.