Ignore everything about the 2012 election prior to today. Before this point, ignore every poll, every positive and negative ad, every gaffe -- because none of it matters.
With Mitt Romney's latest double-talk on abortion and Obama's post-debate slump, women are again in the news.
While Democrats consistently benefit from large gender gaps in statewide races, many expected Warren's candidacy to generate an even larger gender gap.
The Pew Poll is important and a wake-up call to Obama's supporters, but its value is just as a snapshot of the moment, not necessarily a predictor of the future.
Although Gallup does not report the racial composition of its tracking poll sample in its weekly presidential approval results, we can estimate the racial makeup of the sample by extrapolating from the reported approval rating of the president among whites, nonwhites and all adults.
This morning, President Obama moved one step closer to reelection. With 32 days to go, the race is tightening but it is still Obama's to lose, and he might do just that if he doesn't have a better second debate.
With the first debate scheduled for just a few days from now, media attention has begun to focus on what to expect, or not expect, from this year's head-to-head match ups.
Conservatives tend to believe that the 2010 midterms showed that the majority of the country had "figured out" who Obama really was and had rejected him. That is simply a false presumption.
The flip state is Ohio at 77.3 percent for Obama and 22.7 percent for Romney. This is a great, simple approximation for the likelihood of the election.
Obama is ahead in every single battleground state -- whether by a hair or outside the margin of error. This isn't to suggest that every state will go his way, but this does say something about the state of the race.
As you may have heard, it's been a bad week for Mitt Romney. And while he's taken a tumble in the polls, nationally it's still a fairly close race. But both nationwide and in some key swing states, Obama's lead among women has widened considerably. Women are behind the Obama surge.
We can talk about 47 percent, the Libya stumbles, the lack of message discipline and a weak convention, but the simple fact is that the president and his team have had a better strategy than Team Romney from Day 1 and they have executed it to perfection.
As the summer turned towards Labor Day, Obama gained ground every day that Romney did not. Time is kind to incumbents and leading candidates. The burden is now completely on Romney and/or Ryan to move the needle in their four debates
Over the remainder of the election campaign, HuffPost will be presenting graphical summaries of the modeling I've been doing behind-the-scenes for them over the last few months. Some additional background on how it all works seems warranted.
The Presidential campaign is now careening from convention to gaffe to speech to debate, and Congressional and Senate races are up on the air in earne...
A key question is whether the Obama surge in national polling is showing in the swing-states? With the conventions behind us, we can expect more swing state polling this week and beyond.