As we enter the final week of the campaign, an obvious question to ask is how to convert the state-by-state probabilities of an Obama or Romney lead in the polls to probabilities that Obama or Romney will win the state and the election itself.
As we're now in the final stretch of political Armageddon -- judging from the intensity and hype of most folks finally paying attention -- there's that ongoing discussion about the "undecideds."
This graph shows point estimates of the survey house effects produced by my model (as of the evening of October 23, 2012). Negative house effects means that the pollster skews in a pro-Romney direction; positive house effects means that the pollster tends to overstate support for Obama.
he vice presidential debate stopped the bleeding for Obama and the second presidential debate on Oct. 16 gave Obama a few strong days. During this entire time the number of undecided voters has slowly drifted downward.
Where Romney's winning, he's almost always winning by a lot. Obama's leading in more than a few states by just a little. But the estimates for each state are just that -- estimates -- and are accompanied by uncertainty.
A stronger Democratic convention, Romney's 47 percent calamity, Obama's lackluster debate, and Biden's strong performance have all contributed to a fluid race. But contrary to some coverage and Democratic handwringing, one thing that hasn't moved as much is the gender gap.
This election is roughly back to where it was in May of this year before Team Obama decimated Romney with negative ads. With 21 days to go, this race is essentially tied.
As if nervous Democrats didn't have enough to worry about, on the morning of the second presidential debate, USA Today and the Gallup Poll released a new poll of 12 swing states that shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by 4 points among likely voters.
On the eve of the second presidential debate, it is helpful to take stock of what current polling is indicating about the campaign.
So many people today watch TV with a second screen around and we are giving them something fun, related, and meaningful to do with extra energy; we have enacted the promise that is interactive television with the hope that it will lead us towards the future of information aggregation.
Ignore everything about the 2012 election prior to today. Before this point, ignore every poll, every positive and negative ad, every gaffe -- because none of it matters.
With Mitt Romney's latest double-talk on abortion and Obama's post-debate slump, women are again in the news.
While Democrats consistently benefit from large gender gaps in statewide races, many expected Warren's candidacy to generate an even larger gender gap.
The Pew Poll is important and a wake-up call to Obama's supporters, but its value is just as a snapshot of the moment, not necessarily a predictor of the future.
Although Gallup does not report the racial composition of its tracking poll sample in its weekly presidential approval results, we can estimate the racial makeup of the sample by extrapolating from the reported approval rating of the president among whites, nonwhites and all adults.
This morning, President Obama moved one step closer to reelection. With 32 days to go, the race is tightening but it is still Obama's to lose, and he might do just that if he doesn't have a better second debate.