History tells us that 2016 ought to be a Republican year since it's difficult for a political party to win a third consecutive term. But while history may be on the Republican side, the electoral map is not.
The true magnitude of the problem for the Republican Party only becomes apparent when you compare the big blue wall to what might be called the "small red picket fence" of the consistent Republican-voting states.
In this past presidential election, President Obama defeated Governor Romney by a popular vote of 65.9 million to 60.9 million. In a sane world, that would be the end of the story. But the U.S. presidential election uses the Electoral College.
The congressional delegation will stay red for a while, thanks to redistricting by the Legislature. Still, just imagine the state's 38 electoral votes being in play in 2016 or 2020. Republicans can't win the White House without them.
No matter how many times I explain it to them, my kids can't seem to grasp that the people's choice in the world's oldest democracy is not necessarily the one who assumes the country's highest office, but they're only 10 (twins).
We have extended suffrage repeatedly and nothing awful has happened. Doing away with the electoral voting system will avert a disaster. Let's act now to prevent more election angst. Wasn't 2000 bad enough?
In the latest YouGov/Xbox poll, the pivotal state of Ohio showed slightly more Romney supporters than Obama supporters. But, when asked who they expect to win Ohio, the same respondents predicted Obama would win their state.
On The Atlantic Wire Gabriel Snyder gives what we'd call a combinatorial analysis of the presidential election. I like the analysis not for what it says about the possible outcome but because it illustrates an influential idea in computer science, called computational thinking.
What has been the cumulative impact of these changes over the last month? Overall, Romney has improved roughly 2 percentage points with Xbox LIVE users, and those gains occurred almost entirely during the period between the first two debates.
The real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures. If the numbers are bad, it could give Romney the last-second momentum he needs. If the numbers are good, Obama could waltz to victory.
Now, Mitt Romney said in his economic speech today he's about "real change/big change" and the president, he says, is about "the status quo." But the growth of government spending is the lowest it's been in 60 years, since President Eisenhower.
he vice presidential debate stopped the bleeding for Obama and the second presidential debate on Oct. 16 gave Obama a few strong days. During this entire time the number of undecided voters has slowly drifted downward.